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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a disappointing season in 2011, going 4-12 and ending the season by losing their final 10 games. Now they will have a new head coach as Greg Schiano was hired away from Rutgers University to take over for the fired Raheem Morris. Some of the team’s younger players, perhaps most notably quarterback Josh Freeman, will be looking to rebound after regressing badly last season.
Schiano brought in former New York Giants quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan as offensive coordinator, and that is likely to mean a system that focuses on running the ball first and foremost in an effort to keep a potentially suspect defense fresh. The Buccaneers moved into the late first round in April’s draft to select Boise State running back Doug Martin, and he will compete with incumbent LeGarrette Blount for playing time and touches right out of the gate. If early reports out of training camp are any indication, Martin has already usurped Blount on the depth chart.
Fantasy football owners may be left debating which Tampa Bay running back to hold in higher regard on draft day, so with that I will compare Martin to Blount and make my choice.
Martin had a very productive senior season in college, with 1,554 offensive yards (1,299 rushing yards) and 18 total touchdowns (16 rushing) in 2011, and he was also productive as a junior in 2010 with nearly 1,600 offensive yards and 14 total touchdowns (12 rushing that season). He is regarded as a complete back, capable as a pass catcher and pass blocker, which are two areas Blount has struggled with during his first two NFL seasons. Given the investment made in him in the draft, Martin stands to get every opportunity to become an every down back immediately as a rookie.
Blount emerged on the scene in 2010 as a rookie with over 1,000 rushing yards, but regressed badly last season with just 781 rushing yards as fumbles were an issue (five in just 184 carries). Despite the occasional highlight reel run, he offers virtually nothing as a pass receiver with just 20 receptions in two seasons and also struggles in pass blocking. That said, Blount is unlikely to completely fade into the background and could be in the mix for goal-line carries at minimum if he can fix his fumbling issues and stay out of Schiano’s doghouse.
Final Analysis
Given how the workhorse running back is more and more of a dying breed, Martin is sure to have plenty of positive buzz surrounding him as fantasy drafts approach if he performs as expected and avoids injury. He is worth considering as a RB2 across all league formats, and is worthy of a slight boost in PPR leagues. Do be aware of the possibility he could lose some goal line carries and early down work to Blount, but that is not enough to significantly dampen his fantasy value at this point barring something unforeseen.
Reports have surfaced suggesting a lack of commitment from Blount that concerned the previous coaching regime, but Schiano has praised him to this point and the drafting of Martin may have him showing a renewed work ethic. If he falls into his previous habits, including fumbling, his role will most certainly be reduced significantly and thus deplete his fantasy value. Owners in touchdown-heavy formats should have him on the radar, but Blount is not worth considering as more than a low-end RB3 or high-end RB4 in standard leagues and should be even further down draft boards in PPR leagues.
Fantasy owners should be leery of over drafting Martin if he performs well during the preseason and proves worthy of being an every down back, but his downside is not as significant as Blount’s right now since he is virtually assured of a significant role no matter what. There is a possibility this situation turns into a dreaded committee backfield with a virtually equal split of touches if Blount re-proves himself heading toward Week 1, but right now I choose Martin since his skill set is more well-rounded and he has more to offer fantasy owners.
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