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The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big splash in free agency this winter, signing starting pitcher Zack Greinke to a six-year, $147 million contract. Adding Greinke to the additions made last season has expectations very high for the Dodgers entering the 2013 season, and anything less than a NL West title will be a disappointment.
The Dodgers’ roster is flush with good fantasy options, including ace starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and shortstop Hanley Ramirez. But something a lot of fantasy owners may overlook on draft day is who is in line to get save opportunities, since the team’s win total should climb if things go as planned. Let’s take a look at the Dodgers’ closer situation from a fantasy angle.
Brandon League was acquired from the Seattle Mariners just prior to the trade deadline last season, and had a 2.30 ERA with six saves in 28 appearances for the Dodgers. All indications suggest he will start the season as the closer, if only because of the three-year, $22.5 million deal he signed to stay with the Dodgers. League had 37 saves in 42 chances along with a 2.79 ERA for the Mariners in 2011, so he has been effective as a primary closer, and he has also made at least 65 appearances in each of his four full major league seasons.
League’s strikeout proficiency is not the stuff of an elite closer (6.7 career K/9 rate), but an excellent ground ball percentage (50.2 percent in 2012, 57.1 percent in 2011) helps minimize that some. He had issues with control last season, with a 4.1 BB/9 rate, but somewhere between his career-best 1.5 BB/9 rate in 2011 and his career BB/9 rate of 3.1 would be a reasonable expectation for 2013. League’s job may not be all that secure if he struggles early in the season, and if he moves to a setup role, his fantasy value would virtually disappear (unless your league counts holds, of course).
Kenley Jansen was fantastic when he was the Dodgers’ primary closer last season, with 25 saves (in 32 opportunities) along with a 2.35 ERA, an elite K/9 rate (13.7) and a career-low 3.0 BB/9 rate. He spent time on the disabled list with an irregular heartbeat, which means he carries some health risk, though he did undergo a heart ablation in October and should be ready to go for spring training. Even if he finds save chances hard to come by, Jansen will carry some fantasy value due to his strikeout total alone.
Final Analysis
Owners in mixed leagues can do worse than League as a second-tier closer, if only because his downside is minimal and he’s first in line for save opportunities at this point. But those who secure a couple of solid closers on draft day can consider taking a late-round flier on Jansen, and his value in keeper leagues is very good as long as his heart issues are behind him.
An open competition between League and Jansen looks unlikely right now, but if Jansen is healthy and effective during spring training Dodgers’ manager Don Mattingly may have no choice but to re-shuffle the back end of his bullpen.
Brad Berreman is a contributing writer, focusing mostly on Minnesota pro teams, at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter @bradberreman24.
