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Pep Hamilton took over as the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive coordinator last season, and his run-oriented approach led to Andrew Luck’s pass attempts declining compared to his rookie season (570; 627 in 2012) and his yardage followed suit (3,822; 4,374 in 2012). Luck did throw the same number of touchdowns as 2012 (23) with just nine interceptions last season, after throwing 18 picks in 2012, and his rushing production (377 yards and four touchdowns) allowed the former No. 1 overall pick to be a solid fantasy option.
Positives
Luck’s supporting cast was thinned by injuries last season, and wide receiver Reggie Wayne, tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Vick Ballard should all be ready for Week 1. The Colts added a wide receiver in free agency (Hakeem Nicks) and the draft (Donte Moncrief), so Luck will have two more capable pass catchers available to him as he looks to continue an upward trend in completion percentage.
Luck ranked fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks that started all 16 games in 2013, and he was seventh in rushing yardage if you account for everyone at the position. The only quarterback that topped both Luck’s rushing yardage and rushing touchdown totals last season was Cam Newton.
Negatives
Luck had fewer pass attempts than Joe Flacco (614), Andy Dalton (586) and Ryan Tannehill (588) last season. Let that sink in for a second…without a dramatic change in Hamilton’s approach that looks unlikely to change much this year. If running back Trent Richardson turns things around after a dismal initial stint with the Colts last season, Hamilton’s conservative game plan on a weekly basis will be re-enforced. Fewer opportunities to throw would obviously keep a lid on Luck’s fantasy potential.
Final Verdict
Luck is a top-10 fantasy signal caller for 2014, even with the shackles his offensive coordinator may put on him. His durability and running ability (nine career rushing touchdowns) greatly limit his downside, and better talent around him will help as well. Luck is a solid option for owners that choose to pass on the top handful of fantasy quarterbacks on draft day, and I think he could be on a lot of championship squads when it’s all said and done.
Bye Week: Week 10
Projected Round: Late Fourth or Early Fifth Round (12-Team Leagues)
Auction Value: $14 (via ESPN.com)
