Among notable free agents, Chris Davis remained available longer than most this offseason, but he will ultimately return to the Baltimore Orioles after agreeing to a seven-year, $161 million deal. Davis has led the majors in home runs in two of the last three seasons, with 53 in 2013 and 47 last season, so a return to Baltimore with plenty of road games in the American League East is good news for his fantasy value in 2016 and beyond.
A .196 batting average is too bad to ignore, but even in 2014 Davis was a fairly productive power hitter with 26 home runs and 72 RBIs. A bit of missed time with an oblique injury and a suspension for amphetamines that ended his season early were factors, which has to considered. Davis surely helped carry plenty of fantasy baseball owners to a good finish in 2015, but it’s worth wondering if he can repeat that in 2016.
In terms of peripheral batted ball numbers, Davis’ 2013 and 2015 seasons were fairly similar. Most notably, his home run/fly ball rates were basically the same (29.6 percent in 2013, 29.4 percent in 2015), and he traded slightly fewer fly balls (45.7 percent in 2013, 43.5 percent) for more line drives (21.9 percent in 2013, 24.7 percent in 2015).
One notable difference is Davis’ increasing propensity to pull the ball. Via FanGraphs.com, 55.9 of his balls in play were pulled in 2015, compared to 46.2 percent in 2013 and 50.9 percent in 2014. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, when also taking into account Davis’ declining rate of “soft contact”, which was 9.7 percent last season after being 11.2 percent in 2013 and 12.7 percent in 2014.
Age (30 on Mar. 17) is not necessarily a concern for Davis, and he has over 500 at-bats in three of the last four seasons (450 in 2014). But any possible decline in his power numbers puts his fantasy value on shaky ground, and even considering that Davis was a bit of a late bloomer, being past his theoretical prime has to be a concern.
A point in Davis’ corner fantasy-wise is multi-position eligibility. He has eligibility in the outfield (30 games in 2015) and potential eligibility at third base (21 games in 2014) if your league’s position eligibility requirements go back two years, which helps differentiate him from other first baseman.
There aren’t any major, obvious red flags clouding Davis’ fantasy outlook for 2016, beyond the potential pressure of trying to live up to an inflated contract. But I’m still betting on a regression along the lines of 2014 for the coming season, and getting Davis in a draft or auction has to come with the expectation he will not return equal value by season’s end.
