After a solid breakout season in 2014 (.312, 24 home runs, 76 RBIs and 74 runs scored), injuries limited outfielder Corey Dickerson to 65 games last season and his numbers suffered (.304, 10 home runs, 31 RBIs). Now he has been traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Tampa Bay Rays, as the Rockies unclogged a crowded outfield after the recent signing of Gerardo Parra.
As expected with playing his home games at Coors Field, Dickerson’s home-road splits are dramatic. For his career, 24 of his 39 home runs came in the friendly confines of Denver’s thin air, but his batting average (.355 at home, .249 on the road) and OPS (1.085 at home, .695 on the road) splits are much more dramatic.
Sporting News’ Ball Park Power Index (BPI) has Coors Field at No. 1 (most hitter-friendly) and Tampa Bay’s Tropicana Field at No. 18 (neutral, slightly pitcher-friendly), which is not surprising in either case. But besides that, Dickerson now enters a much weaker lineup than he would have been a part of in Colorado.
With a .246 career batting average against left-handers, Dickerson could sit a fair amount when the Rays face a southpaw starter. That should not dent his fantasy impact much by itself, but any prospect of losing playing time, and possibly some late-game at-bats, is not good.
The move to the American League East should balance out Dickerson’s home-road discrepancy a bit. Three of the four road stadiums he visited with the Rockies are in the bottom-six (pitcher-friendly) of the Sporting News’ BPI for this year, while all four road parks for Dickerson in his new home are in the top-eight (hitter-friendly) of that index and two (Camden Yards and Fenway Park) are in the top-five.
The move from a grass home field to turf increases Dickerson’s risk for injury, particularly since he missed time with a foot issue last year. His injury-hampered 2015 is not enough to question his durability going forward, but the shift in the surface where he’ll play roughly half his games has to be noted.
Fantasy expectations for Dickerson have obviously taken a hit with the move to Tampa Bay, and even with better health and 500 at-bats it will be hard for him to offset that downgrade. I can fairly confidently project 15-20 home runs and somewhere close to double-digit stolen bases for Dickerson in 2016, but his batting average and other counting stats stand to suffer. He has enough downside to be on my fantasy bust list for this year.
