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2016 Fantasy Baseball: 10 Pitchers To Avoid

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With the NFL season coming to an end this weekend, fantasy baseball is now on the horizon and draft prep will surely start for those who participate. Here are 10 pitchers fantasy owners should avoid on draft day this year.

10. Chicago Cubs SP John Lackey

Chicago Cubs SP John Lackey Michael B. Thomas Getty Images
Lackey had a terrific season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2015, with 13 wins, a 2.77 ERA and solid strikeout (7.2 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates over 33 starts. But other peripherals, including an elevated strand rate (81 percent) and a 3.57 FIP, combine with age (37) to make anything close to a repeat not worth betting on.

Lackey had a terrific season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2015, with 13 wins, a 2.77 ERA and solid strikeout (7.2 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates over 33 starts. But other peripherals, including an elevated strand rate (81 percent) and a 3.57 FIP, combine with age (37) to make anything close to a repeat not worth betting on.

9. San Diego Padres SP James Shields

San Diego Padres SP James Shields Greg Fiume Getty Images
Shields is as reliable as it gets, with at least 33 starts in eight straight seasons and over 200 innings pitched in nine straight campaigns. But home runs (33 allowed) and walks (3.6 BB/9) suddenly became issues last season, and at 34 years old, Shields may be starting a decline phase that fantasy owners should avoid in 2016.

Shields is as reliable as it gets, with at least 33 starts in eight straight seasons and over 200 innings pitched in nine straight campaigns. But home runs (33 allowed) and walks (3.6 BB/9) suddenly became issues last season, and at 34 years old, Shields may be starting a decline phase that fantasy owners should avoid in 2016.

8. Los Angeles Angels SP Jered Weaver

Los Angeles Angels SP Jered Weaver Stephen Dunn Getty Images
Weaver was once a top-tier fantasy starter, and he briefly recaptured that in 2014 (18 wins, 3.59 ERA over 34 starts). But his average fastball velocity has continued to decline, taking his strikeout rate (5.1 K/9 in 2015) down with it, so Weaver's name recognition no longer has much shine for fantasy baseball owners.

Weaver was once a top-tier fantasy starter, and he briefly recaptured that in 2014 (18 wins, 3.59 ERA over 34 starts). But his average fastball velocity has continued to decline, taking his strikeout rate (5.1 K/9 in 2015) down with it, so Weaver's name recognition no longer has much shine for fantasy baseball owners.

7. Washington Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg

Washington Nationals SP Stephen Strasburg Denis Poroy Getty Images
I've already gone through some reasons to avoid Strasburg in fantasy drafts this year, and most notable among them are his injury history, inconsistency in 2015 (5.16 ERA over his first 13 starts, 1.90 ERA over his last 10 starts) and what he'll cost in drafts and auctions based on his potential. As a No. 1 fantasy starter, Strasburg can't be relied on comfortably.

I've already gone through some reasons to avoid Strasburg in fantasy drafts this year, and most notable among them are his injury history, inconsistency in 2015 (5.16 ERA over his first 13 starts, 1.90 ERA over his last 10 starts) and what he'll cost in drafts and auctions based on his potential. As a No. 1 fantasy starter, Strasburg can't be relied on comfortably.

6. Washington Nationals RP Jonathan Papelbon

Washington Nationals RP Jonathan Papelbon Mitchell Layton Getty Images
Papelbon continues to be a productive fantasy closer, with 24 saves and a 2.13 ERA with the Phillies and Nationals last season. But his strikeout rate during his time with the Nationals (6.1 K/9) is not the stuff of an elite closer, and even with a clear path to save opportunities with a good team, Papelbon carries risk below the surface that fantasy owners should note.

Papelbon continues to be a productive fantasy closer, with 24 saves and a 2.13 ERA with the Phillies and Nationals last season. But his strikeout rate during his time with the Nationals (6.1 K/9) is not the stuff of an elite closer, and even with a clear path to save opportunities with a good team, Papelbon carries risk below the surface that fantasy owners should note.

5. New York Yankees RP Andrew Miller

New York Yankees RP Andrew Miller Jonathan Daniel Getty Images
Miller showed he can be a top-level fantasy closer in 2015, with 36 saves and a 14.6 K/9 rate in his first season with the Yankees. But Dellin Betances (14.0 K/9 in 2015) and the newly acquired Aroldis Chapman (15.7 K/9 in 2015) also bring strikeout proficiency to the back end of the bullpen, and if Miller has any bumps in the road his save opportunities could easily turn into holds via a setup role.

Miller showed he can be a top-level fantasy closer in 2015, with 36 saves and a 14.6 K/9 rate in his first season with the Yankees. But Dellin Betances (14.0 K/9 in 2015) and the newly acquired Aroldis Chapman (15.7 K/9 in 2015) also bring strikeout proficiency to the back end of the bullpen, and if Miller has any bumps in the road his save opportunities could easily turn into holds via a setup role.

4. Boston Red Sox RP Koji Uehara

Boston Red Sox RP Koji Uehara Maddie Meyer Getty Images
Uehara has 72 saves for the Red Sox over the last three seasons, but the offseason acquisition of Craig Kimbrel will push him into an eighth inning role. Add in durability concerns and being 40 years old now (41 in April), and Uehara's fantasy value is on the verge of being completely gone.

Uehara has 72 saves for the Red Sox over the last three seasons, but the offseason acquisition of Craig Kimbrel will push him into an eighth inning role. Add in durability concerns and being 40 years old now (41 in April), and Uehara's fantasy value is on the verge of being completely gone.

3. Houston Astros SP Collin McHugh

Houston Astros SP Collin McHugh Ed Zurga Getty Images
After a 2.73 mark in 2014, McHugh was prime for an ERA correction last season. That happened, with a 3.89 ERA, and he benefited from run support (over five runs per start) on his way to 19 wins. There are no peripheral red flags and a good finish to 2015 (3.11 ERA over his final 14 starts) bodes well, but I'm going with my gut and putting McHugh high on my list of pitchers for fantasy owners to avoid this year.

After a 2.73 mark in 2014, McHugh was prime for an ERA correction last season. That happened, with a 3.89 ERA, and he benefited from run support (over five runs per start) on his way to 19 wins. There are no peripheral red flags and a good finish to 2015 (3.11 ERA over his final 14 starts) bodes well, but I'm going with my gut and putting McHugh high on my list of pitchers for fantasy owners to avoid this year.

2. New York Yankees SP Masahiro Tanaka

New York Yankees SP Masahiro Tanaka Getty Images
Tanaka pitched through a partially torn elbow ligament last season, with solid results over 24 starts (3.51 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9). He had offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from the elbow in question, and with the worst-case scenario of Tommy John surgery to come if (when?) his elbow ligament fully tears, Tanaka can kindly be called a very risky fantasy pitcher for 2016.

Tanaka pitched through a partially torn elbow ligament last season, with solid results over 24 starts (3.51 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9). He had offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from the elbow in question, and with the worst-case scenario of Tommy John surgery to come if (when?) his elbow ligament fully tears, Tanaka can kindly be called a very risky fantasy pitcher for 2016.

1. San Francisco Giants SP Johnny Cueto

San Francisco Giants SP Johnny Cueto Jim Rogash Getty Images
The move back to the National League, and a pitcher-friendly home park, is good news for Cueto. But a big contract, past shoulder and elbow issues and his regular season stretch with the Kansas City Royals in 2015 (4.76 ERA, 6.2 K/9 rate over 13 starts) all add significant risk to the fantasy equation, and that's why Cueto is my most avoidable pitcher in drafts and auctions.

The move back to the National League, and a pitcher-friendly home park, is good news for Cueto. But a big contract, past shoulder and elbow issues and his regular season stretch with the Kansas City Royals in 2015 (4.76 ERA, 6.2 K/9 rate over 13 starts) all add significant risk to the fantasy equation, and that's why Cueto is my most avoidable pitcher in drafts and auctions.

Brad Berreman is a writer for RantSports. Follow him on Twitter and like him on Facebook.
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