By health, San Francisco Giants outfielder Hunter Pence was clearly among the best in baseball for a long stretch prior to the 2015 season. From 2008-2014, Pence had at least 640 plate appearances in all seven seasons with at least 154 games played (2011) in each.

Last season was a different story. Pence was hit in the forearm by a pitch during Spring Training and did not make his season debut until May 16. He was reasonably productive over 52 games, hitting .275 with nine home runs, 40 RBIs and four stolen bases over 207 at-bats, but arm issues cropped up again, followed by an oblique issue to end his season after mid-August.

Pence entered 2016 Spring Training with a clean bill of health, but reportedly left Saturday’s workout with Achilles’ tendinitis and is slated to miss a few days. Approaching 33 years old on April 13, Pence now carries risk for fantasy baseball owners he simply hasn’t before.

Peripheral data shows a very stable skill set for Pence, but comparing 2013 to 2014 shows some potential red flags even under the assumption of full health in 2016. After a peak of 35.8 percent in 2013, Pence’s fly ball rate dropped two full percentage points in 2014, and his HR/FB rate fell over three percent (14.6 in 2013, 11.3 in 2014).

An even closer look shows a rising percentage of soft contact (17.4 percent in 2013, 24.5 percent in 2014) and a equivalent reduction in hard contact (35.2 percent in 2013, 28.1 percent in 2014). Pence’s BABIP in 2014 (.318) was basically around his career mark of .319, but it was a 10-point increase from 2013 that helped explain a BA drop of just six points year-over-year.

Another red flag from 2014 is Pence running less, and less effectively, than he did in the previous season. After going 22-for-25 (88 percent) on stolen bases attempts in 2013, Pence went 13-for-19 (68 percent) in 2014. Yes he went 4-for-5 on steal attempts last year, but a limited sample size and injuries has me mostly dismissing Pence’s 2015 campaign from a skills standpoint.

It’s hard to bet on Pence getting back to over 600 at-bats this year, and a big part of his fantasy value has come from the counting stats that come from plate appearances. There’s upside for those who want to dig for a rebound candidate, but I only see Pence as a big-time fantasy bust this year.