After being utility player during his career up until last season, Logan Forsythe became the starting second baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2015. Among the big surprises for fantasy baseball owners last year, Forsythe might be at the top of the list, as he set career-highs across the board that notably included a .281 batting average, 17 home runs and 68 RBIs.

There’s nothing in the way of Forsythe topping 500 at-bats again in 2016, but there are plenty of red flags that say a repeat of his 2015 production is unlikely.

Forsythe’s batted ball profile does not explain his power surge last year, though his home run/fly ball rate did climb some (9.7 percent, from 6.5 percent in 2014). His career bludgeoning (relatively) of left-handed pitching continued last season (.972 OPS), and improvement against right-handers (.273/.353/.375 slash-line) surely helped take him out of a platoon role into full-time duty and fostered a breakout season.

One sign of good fortune was Forsythe’s .323 BABIP, which is far above his previous career mark of .284. He also saw 442 of his 540 at-bats in the fourth or fifth spots in Tampa Bay’s lineup but hit just .227 with runners in scoring position. Some of that could be a function of a lackluster lineup, but the offseason additions of Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison should push Forsythe out of the middle of the order.

Breakout seasons at what would be considered a “post-peak” age happen, and Forsythe’s age-28 campaign in 2015 fits that bill. The kind of power he displayed last year is rare among second basemen this side of Brian Dozier, so some fantasy owners might see those 17 home runs and start to dismiss other options at the position as they draft over the next few weeks.

I think Forsythe will have a hard time reaching double-digit home runs this year, and his RBI total will also suffer with that downturn along with a change in his regular lineup spot. Add in a batting average likely to be closer to .260 than last year’s .281, and Forsythe suddenly becomes an ordinary option bound to let overly optimistic fantasy owners down in 2016.