The weather forecast looks rather troubling for tonight’s 2015 MLB Home Run Derby. At last update, there were tornado sirens going off in Cincinnati, with forecasts calling for damaging winds and possible hail through this evening. If MLB is able to get the Derby in tonight, I believe Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier will be your champion.

Frazier has the decided advantage of knowing Great American Ballpark better than any of his competitors, as he plays 81 games in the stadium every season. He’s already hit 15 home runs in the stadium in 2015. Frazier knows where the jet streams are, and where he needs to drive the ball to have the best chance of getting it out.

Frazier is also a dead-pull power hitter, which means the majority of his home runs go out to left, and left-center. Of Frazier’s 25 home runs this season, one has gone out to dead-center, three have been to right-center, and the other 21 have left the ballpark in left-center or left. With the fences at Great American Ballpark being 328 feet down the left-field line and 379 feet in the left-center field power-alley, this will give Frazier an advantage.

In last season’s Home Run Derby, Frazier finished runner-up to Yoenis Cespedes. The experience he gained during last year’s contest will help him immensely this year. Frazier will know what to expect when it comes to endurance, which is something even the greatest home run hitters have trouble adjusting to.

With the home crowd behind him, the experience learned from last year’s derby, his familiarity with the ballpark and his dead-pull swing, expect Frazier to walk away as the 2015 MLB Home Run Derby Champion, weather permitting.

Jason Fletcher is a Senior Writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @JasonFletcher25, “Like” him on Facebook, or add him to your network on Google+.