It’s that time of year again.
No more lockout. No more wait. The NFL season is upon us.
And what a matchup to kick off the 2011 season. The defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.
With the season starting, I’ve been thinking a lot about how this year could play out. And, naturally, some crazy thoughts popped into my head. That’s not surprising to those of you who know me.
But I guarantee all of these will surprise you. That’s the intention.
1. Let’s start with MVP: Matt Schaub.
Yes, seriously. 2011 will finally be the year the Houston Texans make the playoffs and Schaub will be the one to lead them there. While Arian Foster is dealing with his hamstring issue and the world of Twitter, Schaub will be throwing tuddies left and right. Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter, any of the trio of running backs. Schaub will hit ‘em all. One of the knocks on the veteran QB is his inability to stay healthy, but he hasn’t missed a game in back-to-back years now. His counterpart on the Indianapolis Colts, however, isn’t so lucky. Peyton Manning’s neck issue won’t seem to go away and this appears to be the year in the AFC South. The Jaguars are hopeless and even though Chris Johnson has his new contract, he doesn’t have a playoff-caliber team and he hasn’t been able to practice or get up to game speed. If ever there was a year for Houston, it’s 2011.
2. Deji Karim will become this year’s Peyton Hillis.
Rashad Jennings is done for the year and Maurice Jones-Drew is not exactly the picture of health. He had another knee surgery in January and wasn’t able to run on it until June. For a guy who gets most of his success from his leg, a balky knee is a scary thing. Karim, meanwhile, is a beast. I saw him play in college at Southern Illinois. He’s only 5-9, but weighs in at 209, which makes him pretty much the same size as MJD. If Jones-Drew suffers any sort of injury or needs a breather, Karim is the heir to that throne. And with the newly-released David Garrard out of the picture, the Jags figure to run the ball like madmen.
3. Bernard Scott will out-game Cedric Benson in yards from scrimmage.
Just sticking with the backup RB theme here, I guess. I’ve never liked Benson. Not even when he was on the Bears and had a lot of that thing everybody loves to have a lot of—potential. First of all, he’s an idiot. He won’t stop getting in trouble with the law and I don’t see that problem not affecting him this year at all. Secondly, he’s just not that good. For a Cincinnati team that is going nowhere fast, it would behoove them to play Scott and his 4.6 career yards per carry over Benson and his 3.7 ypc. And I say they figure that out sooner rather than later.
4. The Kansas City Chiefs will make it to the AFC Championship Game.
I know, this one seems crazy even to me. But like they say, “any given Sunday.” Which was a fantastic movie, by the way, but I digress. The Chiefs have arguably the best ground game in the league with superstar-awaiting Jamaal Charles and veteran arm-wrestling champ Thomas Jones and one of the NFL’s top receivers in Dwayne Bowe. Their special teams are outstanding and a guy like Dexter McCluster could be a wild card all year long. And the defense is up and coming with some impact players (such as Eric Berry, a regular Ed Reed in the making). Matt Cassel won’t light up any scoreboards, but he’s not so bad that would cause the Chiefs to lose any games. The injury to tight end Tony Moeaki hurts big time, but KC will rise above it. Mark my words.
5. Chad Henne will lead the Miami Dolphins to the playoffs.
Alright, this one is all kinds of crazy. To be honest, I don’t have a lot of support here. I just have a gut feeling, and a wise woman once told me to listen to my gut more. She probably wasn’t talking about NFL predictions, but hey, ya never can tell with women. The NFL is great in that two Wild Card teams make it each year. Here’s to hoping the Dolphins are one of them, and Chad Henne goes all Chaddddd Hennnnneeeee for them all season long. Or maybe it’ll just be the return of Jason Taylor that will spark this team.
6. Of all the moves the Philadelphia Eagles made, the Vince Young signing will be the most valuable.
Raise your hand if you know how many times Michael Vick has played the full NFL season (when he hasn’t been in jail, of course). If you actually raised your hand, put it down, you’re embarrassing yourself. This isn’t Mrs. Morgan’s second grade class. It’s an internet article. But yes, the answer is one. Just one season out of eight chances. Vick takes a pounding with the way he plays and the Eagles will need a backup quarterback more than they will need three stud cornerbacks or three stud wide receivers or three stud defensive linemen. Vick could miss even as much as half the season and Philly fans will be happy Young was signed as insurance.
7. The Atlanta Falcons will win the Super Bowl.
This isn’t that far out of left field, especially since some other experts (that’s right, I just threw myself in the group of NFL experts) have chosen the same thing. But what would a prediction column be without the Super Bowl winner? Matty Ice is heating up Hotlanta and becoming one of the best real-life quarterbacks in the game today (even if he’s not worth much in fantasy circles). Julio Jones looks legit (and he better be with all the Falcons gave up to draft him) and Tony Gonzalez still has some left in the tank, even if it’s not much. Roddy White and Michael Turner are bonafide studs and even if the defense struggles ever, the offense will be able to get them back on track. But that’s just the thing—the defense is NOT bad. In ’10, the Falcons gave up the fifth least amount of points in the league, behind only the Steelers, Ravens, Packers and Bears.
8. Lance Moore will lead the NFC in touchdown catches.
Drew Brees loves passing the ball, but Sean Payton loves spreading the ball around. But, Brees has a rapport built up with Moore and Marques Colston is coming off his fifth knee surgery in five years. Robert Meachem is still there, and I could very well have used his name here, but I’m going with Moore. In the last two years he’s been fully healthy, Moore has 18 tuddies while only earning seven starts in that span. He is reportedly ruled out for New Orleans’ Week 1 contest against the Packers, so he’ll have to do all this in at most 15 games to make me look like a genius. I have faith.
9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be in the NFC Championship Game.
I love Josh Freeman and I believe last year was the real deal. He’ll take more big steps in ’11 and coupled with LeGarrette Blount, will form a dynamic offensive tandem in Tampa Bay for years to come. This is one exciting young team with an up-and-coming defense. The Bucs just missed out on the playoffs last year and if everything goes right this year, they could very well wind up a game short of the Super Bowl. That’s a big “if” of course, but once again, I have faith they’ll make me look smart.
10a. The Chicago Bears will win the NFC North.
10b. The Green Bay Packers will miss out on the playoffs.
I know, I know. Everything went wrong for the Packers last year in so many ways. They return this year healthy and determined to repeat. Meanwhile, everything went right for the Bears last year, especially in the injury column. But, if there is any repeat in this division, it’s that the Bears wind up looking down at everybody else when it’s all said and done. I’m a diehard Chicago fan, so I’ll admit this is very biased. But I also know everybody’s main critique on the Bears is their offensive line, which is significantly improved, at the very least. Mike Tice is a great coach and will get his guys ready to play. It’s very hard for Super Bowl Champs to find success in the next y ear and I see things breaking the wrong way for the Cheeseheads this year. Sorry, guys.
