Oswalt Vs. Kuroda: Which Righty Should Boston Sign?

Published: 4^th Jan 12 1:16 pm

Matt Sullivan
Sully

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With the Front Office committing to a Spring Training attempt at converting Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard into full time starters and back up options like Andrew Miller, Felix Doubront and Carlos Silva in the minors, the Boston Red Sox are not as desperate for starting pitching as they once appeared. If the off-season trends continue, GM Ben Cherington will probably search the trade market for a starter before he signs anyone too pricey to a one year deal.

However, two free agent pitchers continue to pop up on the Red Sox radar, Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt. The two right-handed veterans appear unable to land the multi-year deals they originally desired, thanks to their advanced ages; Kuroda is 37 and Oswalt is 35. This makes them appealling for a Red Sox team that may have lots of potential options, but is distinctly lacking in bona fide arms for the back end of the rotation.

The two pitchers have more than in common than just being in their mid-thirties. Both have very good career ERA and FIP numbers sitting in the mid to low three range; both get around seven strikeouts per nine while limiting walks to around 2.1 per nine and keeping close to 50% of their batted balls on the ground. Both throw a low-nineties fastball and a mid-eighties slider, and mix in two breaking pitches. They both throw curves, but the two pitches are very different. Kuroda throws a slower curve with less drop (he may actually use the pitch as more of a change up, despite its curve like movement) while Oswalt has a faster, more traditionally moving hook. Oswalt throws a change up as his second breaking pitch, while Kuroda has a split finger which comes in faster than and has less horizontal movement his “curve.”

The biggest difference between these two may end up being in their innings pitched totals. Both pitchers had strong results in 2011 but Kuroda threw a significantly higher number of innings with 202 against Oswalt’s 139. Concerns about Oswalt’s lower back, which put him on the DL last season, are the main reason that teams are unwilling to give the pitcher a two or three year deal. On the other hand, Kuroda has been a workhorse since coming over from Japan pitching over 190 innings in all but one season while with the Dodgers. Oswalt was once like that as well, though. In fact before his troubled 2011 campaign, the ex-Astros ace pitched over 190 innings in six of the seven previous seasons. In fact his 139 innings last season was his lowest total since 2002.

If Oswalt is completely recovered from his back injury, he is the better option. His raw ERA and FIP number are slightly better than Kuroda’s but not by any truly significant margin. The one thing that makes Oswalt the better pick is environment. Oswalt has pitched in two parks that favor hitters slightly (by weighted on base average, or wOBA) He managed an incredible 5.5 HR/FB rate last year while pitching in one of the league’s top home run hitter’s parks. Kuroda meanwhile has pitched in a slightly more friendly environment overall, where doubles and triples are particularly hard to come by. Fenway is a doubles paradise, easily the game’s best doubles hitter’s park (thanks to the Green Monster and the expansive right field). Oswalt’s slight advantage in ERA is even more dramatic when you consider that he actually has a higher batting average on baseballs in play, thanks in part to playing in a better park for hitter’s his whole career. If the difference in BABIP does, in fact, stem from the advantage Kuroda has gotten from his home park, than Oswalt is better suited to Fenway.

Even that difference however will not be very large though. Between two and six runs in 200 innings would be a reasonable approximation. The real questions are health and cost. A healthy Roy Oswalt is slightly preferable to Kuroda, but Kuroda is less of an injury risk by most assessments. If the price were the same, Kuroda would probably be the safer bet. However, should Oswalt’s price drop to something considerably lower than Kuroda’s on these concerns, it might be a risk that pays off well.

It certainly appears that Boston and most of the other suitors for these two pitchers are waiting this one out. With little discernable difference in skill between them, teams are free to play one against the other. That is, until one signs. Should either one come off the market, it is a safe bet that the other will be close behind, taking a very similar deal. It would be something of a surprise if Boston passed on both.