Adrian Gonzalez in Right Field: A Bad Idea or Necessary Evil?
Tonight the Boston Red Sox will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia in the first interleague game of the year. That means this weekend will see David Ortiz playing first base and possibly Adrian Gonzalez playing right field. Facing the pitching rich, offensively challenged Phillies, the Red Sox could start a career DH at first and a first baseman in right field, sacrificing defense at two positions for the sake of four plate appearances. At first glance. the plan makes little sense and could be absolutely disastrous.
While David Ortiz is not a great option as an everyday first baseman, he is capable enough to handle the position for a game or two, and with his red hot bat and his new an improved ability to hit left handed pitching, playing him in place of Gonzalez for a game or two makes sense. However, playing Adrian Gonzalez in right field is a big risk. Gonzalez has played just 13 innings there, all last year as Terry Francona indulged in the same gamble that Bobby Valentine recently claimed he would make. Gonzalez did not make an out as a right fielder last year and thankfully he avoided injury as well. Playing him in right adds unnecessary risk while giving the team just a small plus on the offensive side.
In the coming series against the Phillies, that offensive plus is less than it would normally. The Red Sox will see two lefties in the series, with Cole Hamels taking on Daniel Bard tonight and Cliff Lee facing Josh Beckett on Sunday. That will mean that Gonzalez would be replacing Cody Ross or Daniel Nava in the lineup. While Gonzalez is an upgrade from the switching hitting Nava against lefties, the difference is not as large as you may think. Gonzalez has a career .340 wOBA vs lefties and Nava has a .322 wOBA. Losing Gonzo’s bat for a handful of plate appearances to leave Ross in right and Nava in left is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the team’s runs scored and the net gain may be zero when defense is factored in.
The one game it may make sense for would be Saturday, when Jon Lester faces Joe Blanton. In this game, the idea of getting two power hitting lefties in the line up instead of one has greater appeal, and with the left-handed Lester on the mound, right field is a good place to hide Gonzalez for one game. In this one game, hiding Gonzo in right is justifiable, but the injury risk that comes with him playing out of position may make even this one game more of a gamble than it is worth.
However, when you consider that Boston has been terrible in close games thus far, the idea of going big on offense may make sense. The Red Sox are 3-5 in one run games and they have won just one game where they scored less than four runs. They are 3-17 when scoring less than five runs. This has been partly due to their bullpen, which has been far better in the past two weeks (leading all bullpens with a 1.74 ERA in that time, backed by the 6th best FIP, 3.16). However, the Red Sox are also a rather weak defensive team, even with Gonzalez at first. Their .690 defensive efficiency is the fourth worst in baseball. While putting a better defense on the field may help in a close game, playing for fewer runs scored plays into the Phillies hands.
By runs scored and runs allowed, these teams are very, very close, despite their records. Boston has a Pythagorean record of 20-18, while Philadelphia has a Pythagorean record and true record of 20-19. Playing under National League rules, on the road, the Red Sox are at the disadvantage. Trying to play the Phillies game will only add to that. As risky as it may be,Bostonmay need to consider getting both Gonzalez and Ortiz into two of the three games together. Just be sure to tell Gonzo no heroics out there.
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