Scout Claims Philadelphia Phillies Aren’t Very Good Outside Of The Big 3
The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off their fifth straight season as the top team in the National League East. For the first time in years they’re looking vulnerable, which prompted one scout to suggest that “Other than those three pitchers, they’re not very good”. Is it true that the Phillies aren’t strong enough outside of the big 3? Let’s take a look.
The Phillies infield could use a visit from Dr. House, as lately it has been one injury after another. Ryan Howard injured his Achilles tendon running to first for the final out of NLDS, and it’s unknown when he will return. Even if he does come back in May or June, it’s unlikely he’ll have a significant impact in the lineup. It’s unlikely Howard will be 100% healthy until 2013, due to the nature of his injury. He’ll likely be replaced by some combination of John Mayberry Jr. and Jim Thome. Thome’s bat might make up for Howard, but given his age he can’t be expected to start too many games. Mayberry was solid last season posting an 854 OPS, and if he can come anywhere close to that the Phils might not even notice Howard is gone. And as a right handed hitter in a lineup dominated by lefties, Mayberry brings some much needed balance to the Phillies.
Chase Utley was one of the best players in the game over the past few years, but like Howard nobody is really sure when he’ll return. While Howard and Rollins have won MVP awards during the Phillies impressive run, the true MVP of the team was always Chase Utley. Given his health problems it’s anybody’s guess as to when he returns, and how productive he’ll be when he’s back. In the meantime the Phils are prepared to use Freddy Galvis, a 22 year old who is coming off a 678 OPS. Even Utley at 50% would be an upgrade over Galvis, and this might be the most crippling injury of them all.
The rest of the infield is relatively healthy, although Placido Polanco is coming off an injury. He’s missed 30-40 games over the past couple of years, and at this point the Phillies would simply be happy with a healthy season. Good defence and a solid batting average would be icing on the cake, as Polanco struggles to get on base or hit for power.
Their outfield should be a strength, as they’ll have Hunter Pence for a full season and Shane Victorino snagging balls in center. Odds are Pence and Victorino will be the top two hitters for the Phils this season, and they’ll need to post good numbers in order to give the Phillies a chance at fending off their rivals. Victorino was worth 5.9 WAR last year while Pence was worth 4.7 split between two teams, giving them two significantly above average players in the outfield.
It was a questionable decision to demote Domonic Brown to the minors, as he posted strong numbers in Spring Training and showed an improvement in his K:BB while he was in the majors. Given the need for a bat with high upside, it’s disappointing that the Phillies chose to go with a veteran over Brown.
Realistically the offence should be similar to where it was last year, which is around the middle of the pack in the National League. For any other team that would be the kiss of death, but as the scout pointed out earlier the Phillies have 3 extremely talented starters in the rotation. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are among the top 10-15 pitchers in the game, and are the driving force behind any hopes for the playoffs.
But it’s not just a dominant top three in the rotation for the Phillies, as Vance Worley was very impressive last season. While few expect him to put up a 3.01 ERA again, he did post a 3.32 FIP which would indicate that he wasn’t simply getting lucky. He’s a fantastic pitcher who gives the Phils a chance to win every time he’s on the mound.
While the bullpen was a weak spot for the Phillies, the addition of Jon Papelbon ensures that the Phillies have a dominant back end of the bullpen. Although the bridge to Papelbon isn’t nearly as strong, with Antonio Bastardo and Jose Contreras being the only relievers of note from last season who are returning
It’s easy to say that the losses of Howard and Utley will prevent the Phillies from making the playoffs. But let’s not pretend that this is a team that is just Halladay, Lee Hamels and a bunch of second stringers. The Phillies are more vulnerable than they’ve been in the past, but they’re still a talented team with a pretty good chance of winning the division.
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