If Matt Garza Stays, Who’s The Odd Man Out In Cubs’ Rotation?
As the Cubs Convention draws closer, it looks as if the Cubs might be more likely to sign Matt Garza to an extension, rather than trade him like we’ve heard so often for these past couple months of the offseason.
Assuming Garza sticks around for next year, and even signs a contract extension, he’ll likely be the ace of the staff next year. Many have argued that he isn’t an ace, but there’s no doubt he’s a top of the rotation starter who could be a mainstay in this rotation for the next four or five years.
When Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over atop the Cubs organization, they made it clear that they wanted to not only improve the farm system, but really focus on the pitching as well. They want to go as many as eight or nine starters deep in their rotation, and they’re very close to achieving that.
Along with Garza, you have Ryan Dempster. With Carlos Zambrano being traded, those are the only two locks for a spot in the rotation in 2012.
From there, things get a little bit cloud. Or a lot a bit cloudy. The Cubs have gone out and stockpiled arms to fit in their rotation and bullpen, as well as a couple of guys who were already on the roster.
The new guys include the likes of Travis Wood, Chris Volstad, Paul Maholm, and Andy Sonnanstine. Wood and Volstad were both acquired via trade, with the Cubs sending Sean Marshall to Cincinnati for Wood, and sending Z to the Marlins for Volstad.
Wood had an excellent rookie season before falling off a bit last year, while Volstad has a similar story, except his fall off has been over the last three seasons. If Wood can revert to his rookie form, and Volstad can pitch consistently in a way similar to that of last September (four quality starts in five), it’s hard not to see those two in the rotation in April.
That leaves at least four guys for one spot. Along with Maholm and Sonnanstine, the Cubs already have Randy Wells and Jeff Samardzija, who will get another shot at cracking the rotation this spring. Let’s assume that Sonnnanstine and Samardzija both end up in the bullpen, which is a pretty safe assumption.
Maholm was signed by the Cubs earlier this week, on a one-year deal with a 2013 option. Wells had some issues with injuries and inconsistency in 2011, finishing with a 4.99 ERA in 135 innings. Focusing more on the success of Maholm last year, who pitched to a 3.66 ERA, and less on the failures of Wells, I’d peg Maholm as the fifth guy in the rotation, leaving Wells to the bullpen or as a trade candidate.
Of course, we have all throughout spring training and the Cactus League before we can actual figure out the starting rotation. But any way you look at it, the Cubs’ problem is a good one to have. They currently have about eight guys that are capable of starting at any point this season, which is already a major improvement over the Doug Davis/Ramon Ortiz/Casey Coleman debacle of 2011.
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I really don’t think it’s a matter of an odd man out. There is simply going to competition for the bottom part of the rotation. They will compete and the best 5 get to start. Those who pitch well enough to also make the team will fill out the bullpen. The only ones out will be the ones that don’t perform.