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If you’re reading this blog, you probably know that Shin-Soo Choo is the Indians’ best player. You’ve joined the chorus yelling “CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO” every time he comes to bat at Progressive Field, and you’ve grumbled to yourself about how he would be a household name if anyone outside Cuyahoga County cared about the Indians.
But you probably don’t know how good he truly is.
Wins Above Replacement is exactly what it sounds like—an estimate of how many more games the team won because they used a certain player (in this case, Choo) instead of a “replacement-level” guy (the approximate production of a Triple-A player who’s not ready for the majors, or an unsigned free agent). Offensive production, defense, games played, and position are all factored into the equation (for position players). Replacement-level is zero WAR, the average everyday player is worth about 2 WAR, and 5 WAR is a good rule-of-thumb benchmark for an All-Star-caliber player. (For a more thorough explanation click the “WAR Explained” link on the left)
You don’t need to understand the whole process to appreciate that, according to Baseball-Reference.com’s rankings, Choo was the second-best player in baseball in 2010. You read that correctly. Cleveland guy who hit ball and throw far is the second-best player in the game.
Compare Choo’s 7.3 WAR to presumptive AL MVP Josh Hamilton’s 6.0 and those of his most likely competitors: Miguel Cabrera’s 6.9 and Jose Bautista’s 5.6. Beasts of the AL East Adrian Beltre and Robinson Cano (6.1 WAR apiece) don’t come close. Choo also beats NL stars Joey Votto (6.2), Roy Halladay (6.5), and even “The Machine” himself—Albert Pujols (7.2).
Only Evan Longoria (7.7) was more valuable to his team—and that’s before you consider the context of the roster. The Indians posted just 24.2 WAR altogether (including pitchers), meaning that Choo accounted for an astounding 30% of his team’s production. In other words, a full third of the difference between the 2010 Indians and the cast of Major League came from Choo.
Finally, recall that Choo lost 18 games due to injury. Over 162 games, he would be on pace for 8.2 WAR—by far the best in the game.
I should qualify this by saying that I much prefer FanGraphs’ slightly different WAR model to Baseball-Reference’s (the biggest difference is how defense is measured). In fact, this might be the only time I ever use B-R’s version. So take the superlatives with a grain of salt.
FanGraphs’ WAR isn’t as kind to Choo, but his 5.6 WAR still makes him a fantastic player. He drops to eighth in the league on their list, behind every AL player mentioned above, plus Carl Crawford. Yet he still finishes ahead of names like Joe Mauer (5.1), Alex Rodriguez (3.9), and Mark Teixeira (3.5)—all of whom are virtually assured to get more MVP votes than Choo.
Is he really the second-best player in baseball? No, he’s not. But he is a genuine superstar, and we Clevelanders should be proud to call him our own—even if no one else notices.
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