Wisconsin Badgers vs. Montana Grizzlies Preview
The Wisconsin Badgers (4) and Montana Grizzlies (13) clash Thursday afternoon at 1:10 p.m. ET in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
The fourth seeded Badgers do not have the same expectations they normally do when entering the tournament but for once that might be a good thing. I believe Wisconsin can do some damage because nobody expects them to go far. They had big-time wins over Ohio State, Indiana and UNLV while only losing by three to North Carolina early in the season.
Montana on the other hand had a great year posting a 15-1 conference record on their way to a Big Sky championship. The Grizzlies will be cruising in on a 14-game win streak heading into their showdown with the Badgers which means the team will be full of confidence, a necessary ingredient in any upset. It is true Montana did not play a hard schedule but that does not matter once the NCAA tournament seeds are set.
Offense
Wisconsin: The Badgers average 63.9 points and 11.7 assists per game while converting 42.4 percent from the field. Bo Ryan’s offensive style is to whittle down the shot clock with accurate passes to create high-percentage shots and simply wear down opposing defenses. Wisconsin converted 36.1 percent of their shots behind the arc and has been known to live or die by the three this season. However, when their on there is really no way of turning them off. They tore apart Ohio State on the road late in the season and Indiana in the Big Ten tournament by hitting multiple three pointers. The Badgers are also a high-percentage free throw shooting team which is always a must to succeed in the NCAA tournament. The Badgers are ranked 37th in the country converting 74.1 percent from the foul line.
Montana: The Grizzlies have the more high-powered offense between these two teams with 70.6 points and 13.8 assists per game. Their incredible 46.5 shooting percentage is ranked 48th in the league. Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar provide an excellent offensive threat in the backcourt that could be difficult for Jordan Taylor to defend. Montana also likes to run the court, something Big Ten teams are not exactly accustomed to. The Grizzlies get a lot of their offense from behind the arc as they are ranked 50th in the NCAA with 37.3 percent three-point shooting. Whichever team can convert more three-pointers should have the upper hand in the outcome of the game.
Advantage: Montana. If Wisconsin can slow down the tempo on offense like they usually do it will create problems for Montana’s defense. However, if the Badgers are unable to score, something they have struggled with this season, the Grizzlies will take the ball game over by scoring relentlessly.
Defense: As good as Montana is on offense Wisconsin is even better on defense. This is Ryan’s bread and butter when it comes to coaching. Defense is something the Badgers do exceptionally well and the statistics prove it. Wisconsin is ranked 1st in the NCAA in scoring defense as they have held their opponents to an impressive 52.9 points per game. The Badgers have only allowed opposing teams to shoot 38.3 percent from the field which is good for 9th in the league. They are also ranked 6th in the NCAA in three-point field goal percentage with 28.9 percent. Overall, defenses do not get much better than Wisconsin which is why I think many teams will struggle with them in the tournament.
Montana: The Grizzlies are more known for their offense but their defense is pretty good as well. They are ranked 44th in scoring defense holding opponents to 61.7 points per game and 36th in three-point field goal percentage allowing teams 40.3 percent from behind the arc. If Montana can make Wisconsin miss consecutive shots and force them into a shooting funk their defense should prevail.
Advantage: Wisconsin. Wisconsin has been outstanding on defense all season and there is no reason to believe it should stop now. Their ability to swarm and double team ball handlers while also forcing difficult shots will frustrate Montana’s offense to no end.
Outcome: The Badgers ability to slow down the game on offense and prevent opposing teams to score on defense will create numerous problems for the Grizzlies. Montana has not faced a team like Wisconsin all season and are simply not prepared for what is coming. Wisconsin will defeat Montana 63-60 and move on to the second round of the NCAA tournament.
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