Part One: 13 Years of Incompetence
Part Two: A Year of Incompetence

News that Colorado Rockies General Manager Dan O’Dowd would be reassigned broke on a late night talk show in Denver that has been critical of the team.  A personality called in and gave the news the night before an official press conference. Looking back, the timing of the move was interesting, but with the Rockies there is always a motive. Everyone’s against them, and they want their critics to pay.

The first rumor was that the Rockies would reassign O’Dowd as they did pitching coach Bob Apodaca. The coach was tired of his job and wanted to try something new. He is now an assistant to the general manager. Instead of being moved, O’Dowd promoted long time assistant and friend Bill Geivett to senior vice president of major league operations. O’Dowd would have more control over the farm system and Geivett would assume day-to-day control of the team.

What this actually means is that O’Dowd has erected a human shield in the form of Geivett between him and the critics. He apparently asked to be fired by the owners, the Monfort brothers, but they would hear none of it. Geivett has no real power, but will be the hands-on manager that the Rockies brought Jim Tracy in to get away from. O’Dowd will try to rebuild a farm system that he has always been in control of.

This new reality, with O’Dowd fading slightly from the public spotlight, has set up a bleak future for the Rockies organization. The Rockies preach accountability, but are afraid to hold anyone accountable. How this will play out with future players remains to be seen, but Carlos Gonzalez is too talented to waste his career here. Without improvement, look for him to find a way out of town. The Rockies lack of pitching, orchestrated by O’Dowd’s trades, has left Colorado without options, and since they continually complain about the altitude, few pitchers will want to come play at Coors Field.

As for O’Dowd, he has bought himself at least two more years with the move of Geivett. Tracy will be unfairly fired after the season. No manager could have controlled a team with such disastrous pitching, but unless the Rockies are above .500 the rest of the way, they will finish with over 100 losses. Geivett, will be fired at the end of next year as an excuse as well. Not because he will have done anything wrong, but because O’Dowd has built another brick in the system. Until the Monforts decide to look outside the organization, the Rockies will continue to operate in a fantasyland that does not exist in major league baseball. Coors Field may be the most beautiful place to watch a ballgame in the world, but O’Dowd’s presence will make sure the road fans go home happy.
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Part One: 13 Years of Incompetence

On July 31, 2011, the Colorado Rockies traded number one starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to the Cleveland Indians for young prospects Drew Pomeranz and Alex White. The Rockies allowed Jimenez to pitch the first inning of his final game with the club and then took him out as the trade was going down. It is among the least classy things the sport has ever seen, as the best pitcher in Rockies history was shown the door mid-game. Fourteen months removed from the club’s only no-hitter by Jimenez, the Rockies no longer had an ace.

The Jimenez story highlights much of what is wrong with the Rockies organization. The Rockies had high expectations for Jimenez heading into 2011, but pushed him early in spring training leading to a slew of injury problems. Going back to his first full season in 2007, the Rockies pitched Jimenez too much, which may be responsible for part of his decline. The Rockies also withheld a contract to Jimenez after rewarding Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez with long-term deals. This led to animosity in the clubhouse and ultimately ended to Jimenez throwing at Tulowitzki in 2012 after comments Tulowitzki made on the subject. If the General Manager’s job is truly to manage players, Dan O’Dowd majorly mismanaged the best pitcher he was able to develop.

O’Dowd went into the 2011 off-season looking for a new philosophy. He came to Colorado in 1999 believing he was smarter than previous Rockies management and decided he could bring in the pitching no one else could. When this strategy did not work he adopted a “build from within” mantra for several years. When the young players did not develop fast enough, O’Dowd said it was the organization’s lack of Christian values that were holding them back. By the winter of 2011, it was apparent that he needed a new strategy and this time decided that veteran leadership was the key to success.

Adding to Todd Helton and Jason Giambi, O’Dowd brought in Michael Cuddyer, Casey Blake, Ramon Hernandez, Marco Scutaro, Jamie Moyer and Jeremy Guthrie. All of these men are 30 or older, with Moyer topping the list at 49. O’Dowd admitted defeat with prospects Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta and Seth Smith in the process. Moyer surprisingly made the unproven rotation that would implode as he lost his spot. O’Dowd’s focus on offense left Colorado without a lot of arms.

The Rockies’ season never gained traction. Colorado had a decent April before plummeting in May. Their winning percentage has decreased every month of the season. The understaffed starting rotation is on pace to have the second worst ERA of all time. The Rockies have rolled out 13 starting pitcher. Their number one starter, Jeremy Guthrie, was shipped off to the Kansas City Royals after a 3-8 record and a 6.66 ERA. His replacement, Jonathan Sanchez, is now on the disabled list along with starters Christian Fredrich, Juan Nicasio, Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa, who never played a game. Their other pitchers, including Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, have shown an inability to throw strikes in the majors.

The pitching mess led to what General Manager O’Dowd calls a piggyback system. The Rockies rotate through starters on a four-man rotation instead of five and have imposed a 75-pitch count limit. Three rotating pitchers that serve as long relief men then back up the starters. O’Dowd says this strategy was adopted because altitude affects pitchers’ recoveries. However, his plan has pitchers pitching more often, with even worse results. O’Dowd is just now trying new things at altitude despite his 13 year tenure, but believes he is the only man who understands its effects.

Rockies owner Dick Monfort said that O’Dowd is the best General Manager in baseball. He sees nothing wrong with the lack of knowledge and inability to gain traction displayed by his General Manager and friend. The Monfort Brothers, who run the Rockies, do not know a lot about baseball. Their main reference point is through O’Dowd, which has stifled change as they blindly go forward. The Montfort’s and Rockies organization is all about controlling data. They refuse to hear criticism and have shut themselves off from the media. They tell the season ticket holders in long letters that they have vast plans.

Rockies’ fans one hope for the future was the threat of 100 losses. Fans felt that with the Rockies reaching the century mark for the first time in history, ownership would have to make a change. For Rockies fans, that hope was lost when the club announced the promotion of Bill Geivett. The new Senior Vice President of Major League Operations negates the momentum against O’Dowd through this disastrous season.

Part Three:  A Future of Incompetence

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September 20th will be the 13th anniversary of Dan O’Dowd taking over the role of Colorado Rockies General Manager. In his 12 seasons, the Rockies have had a winning record four times, made the playoffs twice and the World Series once. The Rockies have never won their division in what is their 20th season of competition. This year’s Rockies’ current winning percentage of .370 would eclipse their inaugural season’s .414.

O’Dowd entered Coors Field and told the Blake Street Bombers to pack up the show. Power hitters and Rockies’ favorites, Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette, were sent out of Denver and replaced a season later by pitchers Danny Neagle and Mike Hampton. The two pitchers spelled disaster for the Rockies and set the team on a new path.

The Rockies next strategy was to grow from within. The Rockies committed money to first baseman Todd Helton and then built around him. This era, affectionately known as the Todd and the Toddlers era, saw no winning seasons and a general apathy from Colorado fans, as the only major change was switching to Manager Clint Hurdle from Buddy Bell.

In 2007, after finally growing talent out of Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies went on one of the most miraculous runs in history of sports. They won 13 of their last 14 games to end the regular season to force a play-in game against the San Diego Padres. The game ended in the 13th inning, 9-8. The Rockies came from behind in the inning and scored three against the ultimate closer, Trevor Hoffman. The Rockies went on to sweep the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks, their only two playoff series wins. The Boston Red Sox then swept the Rockies in the World Series. The Rockies were outscored 29-10 in the four games. Looking back, O’Dowd’s month and a half of success will never be replicated in such a way again.

2008 and the first two months of 2009 were trying for O’Dowd’s Rockies’ club. O’Dowd elected to let outfielder Willy Tavares, pitcher Josh Fogg and second baseman Kaz Matsui go in favor of the Rockies’ farm system. Garrett Atkins’ production slowed down and the Rockies’ pitching, including Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis and Ubaldo Jimenez, was not as strong as in the previous year; the Rockies finished 74-88. The Rockies traded a disgruntled Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s for closer Huston Street, pitcher Greg Smith and minor league player Carlos Gonzalez.

Current Manager Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle after the club started 19-18 in 2009. It’s worth noting that the Rockies brought Tracy in because he was a hands-off manager. The Rockies felt that Hurdle was micro-managing the team, which is an important factor in the current Bill Geivett situation. The Rockies 74–42 record under Tracy earned them another Wild Card berth, which they lost in four games to the Phillies. The jump was made by the strong play of Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dexter Fowler, Chris Iannetta, Ryan Spilbourghs, Ian Stewart and Seth Smith.

2010 saw the Rockies leading the division over the San Francisco Giants from after the All-Star Break to a series late in September. The Giants bolted ahead and the Rockies lost 13 of 14 games. Their young players including, Ian Stewart and Chris Iannetta, stopped producing and the Rockies fell off the radar. Ubaldo Jimenez struggling early in 2011 led to his departure. The Rockies finished 73-89.

It’s safe to say that the Rockies under O’Dowd through last season had three passable campaigns. In the 2007 season, they were ten games above .500 before their magical run. 2009 saw a surge in the last four months of the season. 2010’s record of 83-79, despite the collapse, tied their third best record of all time. In baseball, consistency is important. O’Dowd has changed his philosophy so many times and in so many ways. Dealin’ Dan O’Dowd became his nickname because he made such small trades; it is an apt comparision to a local used car salesman. Bill Geivett explained the Rockies philosophy best, “You have to trust in the organization.” For the last 13 seasons, the Rockies have put their trust in O’Dowd with little results.

Part Two: One Year of Incompetence
Part Three: A Future of Incompetence

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The unorthodox rotation of a 25-41 team with a sub-400 winning percentage is not about to win a World Series, but will it cut down a starting rotation that has been a travesty? The Rockies starters’ ERA is 6.37, which is much higher than the highest starter ERA of all time, the 1930 Philadelphia Phillies. The second highest team ERA this year belongs to the Minnesota Twins. Rockies pitchers also have only 13 wins, the lowest in the majors.

The Colorado Rockies have rolled out ten different starters this season, but Guthrie represented the last of the Opening Day starters. The Rockies lost Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz and Jhoulys Chacin to injury. They lost Jamie Moyer to age. Their four-man rotation now includes Alex White, Christian Fredrich and Josh Outman, who are all effectively rookies, with Jeff Francis rounding out the rotation. Guthrie’s move to the bullpen is until they can find an effective trade for the man they traded Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom for, a disastrous trade.

Through two games of the Rockies’ experiment, the Rockies have lost both, moving the mark to losing 11 out of 12 games. Josh Outman pitched only 73 pitches in four and a third innings giving up four runs. In his start last night, Alex White made it three and two thirds innings, giving up four runs. He was pulled at 75 pitches and the lead. Matt Reynolds came in and gave up a run. New reliever Jeremy Guthrie did pitch three hitless innings, but the Rockies didn’t recover.

A desperate team will try anything. The Colorado Rockies are 16 games out of first place and on pace for 102 losses as of now. They are a desperate team, but the new rotation will not win the Rockies more games. It will wear out a bullpen that has been a highlight for a team without a shot. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are both hurt and the Rockies are sinking in altitude.

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Due to the poor performances, especially his last three starts (0-3, 13.50 ERA, 11.1 IP), the Rockies have begun shopping Guthrie and have received the most interest from the Toronto Blue Jays. It also makes the most sense for Toronto to make a play for Guthrie.

The possible trade scenario would be this: Rockies would send Guthrie to Toronto in return for Double-A first baseman Mike McDade. The Blue Jays would also absorb $4.9 million on his one-year $8.2 million arbitration contract.

Toronto is in dire need of a starting pitcher after a rash of injuries have plagued their rotation. Guthrie also has experience pitching in the American League East dating back to his days with the Baltimore Orioles so he would be familiar with the division.

McDade is a young player, who just turned 23, and he can hit for power. The 6-foot-1, 250 pound infielder is hitting .305 with 11 HR’s and a .385 OBP in 65 games this season.

Colorado has been looking to trade Guthrie ever since his odd behavior and rough outing in his last home start at Coors Field. Guthrie tipped his cap twice, in the first and third innings, as the crowd booed him off of the field. He said he was frustrated with himself and not the boos. However, he did say after the game that the altitude of Coors has affected his pitches more than he anticipated and it seems to have become a mind over matter issue.

Look for the Rockies to become big sellers at the trade deadline as they continue to fall in the standings. Something has to change for a team that had such high expectations just a season ago.

Coming into this season the big question mark for the club was how will their starting pitching keep them in the game? Well, at the beginning of May the Rockies had a record just under .500 at 11-12 but their weakness began to take center stage. Through May 22, the Rockies record had plummeted to 15-27 and their losses were plagued with poor pitching performances from their starters. In many of the ball games, the starting pitchers would not get past the 6th inning and then the bullpen would get overworked furthering the poor pitching cycle. The offense would have its good games and was for the most part consistent but it’s hard to come from behind game after game.

With that said, something has clicked in the clubhouse and the Rockies have gotten it going. To finish the month of May, Colorado went 6-2  highlighted by a four game sweep of the Houston Astros and quality wins over the Cincinnati Reds and the Miami Marlins. Wins over the Astros are not much to brag about but losses to them would be worse and the Rockies got it done when they needed it the most. After that series Colorado went on to take two of three from the MLB leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Since May 22 the Rockies are 8-3 and have made up five games in the NL West and have inched closer in the wild card standings.

There has been some casualties along the way with Jamie Moyer getting optioned to the minors, Troy Tulowtizki going on the 15-day DL and Juan Nicasio suffering a sprained knee. The club has persevered up to this point so what’s another bump in the road? To get through the next few weeks they will have to rely on Carlos Gonzalez’s power surge and their resurgent offense which is averaging over seven runs per game during their 8-3 stretch.

Who knows if the Rockies will be able to sustain this momentum but they are certainly turning things around after an awful start to the season. With another wild card spot up for grabs this season the Rockies still have hope to make the postseason but there is a lot of time between then and now so we will see how the rest of this month plays out.

For Gonzalez, he is the major bright spot on a Colorado Rockies team that sits nine games below .500. He got hot at the beginning of May, a little earlier than in previous years where he has flirted with the Triple Crown of Baseball. With a .323 batting average, 13 homeruns and 41 RBIs this season, Gonzalez is creeping up on the top of the list in all categories. He is currently third in the National League in both RBIs and homeruns, and ninth in batting average.

2010 is the only season where Gonzalez played more than 130 games. He finished with his best statistical season with an average of .336, 117 RBIs and 34 homeruns. In a game against the Chicago Cubs, he hit for the cycle with the night ending on a walk-off homerun from the now 26-year-old. Gonzalez finished as the player’s choice for most outstanding player and he won the batting title. Gonzalez fell just short on homeruns and RBIs.

This year, Gonzalez is off to a faster start. If he continues to stay in this rhythm for the rest of the season, he could be a legitimate threat to capture the Triple Crown. Of course, the baseball detractors will want to take Gonzalez’s award away because he plays in Denver, not understanding that the Rockies installed a humidor that has normalized the ballpark’s altitude. If Gonzalez is able to rise to the top of the list in all three categories, the honor will be deserved.

On a Rockies team that sits 11.5 games back in the division, Gonzalez is a reason to continue watching. Jamie Moyer is making his exit from the club as the oldest player to win a game in the majors. The pitching staff’s ERA is last in Major League Baseball. Todd Helton is having his worst start to a season of his career and Troy Tulowizki is heading back to the DL in a down year. Carlos Gonzalez is the Mile High Man, until Manning takes the field for the Denver Broncos.

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Earlier I chose Colorado to win the NL. I don't feel great about it, but I'm sticking by it. World Series: Detroit Tigers over Rockies.

April 9, 2012 9:18 am via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@richmacleod

Rich MacLeod

That’s right, not only did I pick the Colorado Rockies to make the postseason, not only did I pick them to win the division, I picked them to make another incredible run towards the Fall Classic. This was a mistake. I mean, woah. First of all, the Rockies have absolutely no pitching. As a team their ERA is 5.07, that’s dead last in the National League. If you go into their pitching deeper, not one of their starters has an ERA of under 4, in fact, the lowest ERA of any of their starters belongs to rookie Drew Pomeranz (0-2, 4.70) who has recently been optioned back to AAA. To think that a team who had dreams of contention is actually relying on 49-year-old pitcher Jamie Moyer is a joke in of itself. At times Moyer has shown that he still can pitch but his numbers are not good so far as he’s posted a 2-4 record along with a 5.99 ERA. Five pitchers for Colorado have (or had before demotion) ERAs over 7. Over 7! It’s safe to say that their pitching has not been good, and in that type of ballpark if you don’t have guys who can pitch their, you’re in trouble.

The Rockies offense, while potent at times, has not been anything to write home about either. Todd Helton, the heart and soul of this Rockies franchise, is batting .228. Chris Nelson, a starting third baseman because they have no one else to play there, is hitting .219 with no home runs. Former Chicago Cubs Rookie of the Year candidate Tyler Colvin has actually been one of their better hitters in limited opportunities (.291, 3 HR, 11 RBI) but he has not been on the field much. It’s no question that the Colorado Rockies have big time talent in guys like Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki but the two of them just simply are not good enough to carry this team to a postseason berth.

Colorado sits in 4th place of the not-so-stellar National League West with a 17-27 record. Although they weren’t the trendiest of pre-season picks, I was not the only one to put some stock into this club. There’s no question that Jim Tracy’s seat has gotten hotter as the weeks have gone on and while we don’t know that a coaching change can help this team, it’s worked in the past. Remember that Tracy got his crack at being manager in 2009 when the Rockies were struggling and let go of manager Clint Hurdle. The same fate may lie for Jim Tracy if he cannot get this team to right the ship. Even if Colorado does figure it out and can be more competitive throughout the season, it appears that I made a mistake in choosing them to go to the World Series. I’ll stand by that pick all year, because I refuse to hop on and off of bandwagons, but I’m not exactly confident in it.

This is the first part of my ‘When Pre-Season Predictions Go Wrong’ piece, to read Part Two, click here.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter!

General manager Dan O’Dowd took over at the end of the 1999 season and has posted a 941-1047 record through 1988 games. For those keeping score at home, his club has lost 106 more games than its won during his tenure with a .473 winning percentage. His farm system has produced just five Major League pitchers out of over 300 drafted. His team has never won a world series and has had just four winning seasons out of the 12 full seasons O’Dowd has been in charge.

Nowhere in those statistics does greatness linger. O’Dowd mismanages players like Ubaldo Jimenez. He gives up on farm system players easily and moves on with older players, but then preaches patience. He has failed to develop an organization for ten years, but has no worries about losing his job. Overall, his trades produce talent for the trading partner.

O’Dowd has taught the Monfort Brothers baseball. They made their money in slaughterhouses. Somehow the kings of cattle cannot recognize a butcher job when they see one. As long as the Monforts can bring the Colorado fans in like cattle, they don’t seem to care about the product on the field. As they try to brand this season the “Year of the Fan” and sell purple from the subtly noticed “Purple Monday”, the product on the field is near an all time low. If O’Dowd is the greatest GM in baseball, than the Monforts have a scale that does not revolve around success.

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The Rockies have won just four of their 18 May contests and now sit ten games below .500 for the year. They are a Major League worst 12.5 games out of first place behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and head out on the road without much hope of improving. The Rockies are 6-11 on the road with two wins in the month of May.

The Rockies will make stops in Miami and Cincinnati this week. Tonight’s match-up will feature 49-year-old Jamie Moyer against Mark Buehrle, who is 16 years younger. Moyer was the Rockies last winning pitcher five days ago, and also hobbled his way to first on a blooper to get the RBI’s to win the game. For Moyer, tonight’s start will be in his 50th Major League Park.

In the weekend inter-league sweep by the Mariners, the Rockies were outscored 20-7 in their home park, which included a shutout for pitcher Kevin Millwood, who was on the Rockies staff at the end of last year. Pitching has plagued the Rockies all year, including a 9-7 loss Thursday to the Diamondbacks where the Rockies lead by three runs twice, but surrendered runs in five innings in a row.

The Rockies pitching staff has given up six or more runs eight times already and it is a combination of bullpen and starting pitchers struggling. The Rockies eight starting pitchers have combined for seven wins, and no pitcher has more than two wins. The entire pitching staff’s ERA is 5.07.

The batting is not much better. Of everyday players, only Carlos Gonzalez is having a good year on a team with a lot of power. He is hitting .305, while outfielder Tyler Colvin is batting .295. Almost 30 batting points lower Michael Cuddyer, Troy Tulowitzki and Marco Scutaro are hanging out in mediocrity. Todd Helton is currently batting .219.

The Rockies could feasibly return to Coors Field 16 games below .500 for a Memorial Day double-header. How long until the Rockies owners, the Monforts, have seen enough? It’s only May, there is still time to salvage the season. Of course, there does not seem to be a natural fix coming to the rescue anytime soon.

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