Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Surprises of the First Half
By Tony Andracki
(Note: Constructed at All-Star Break. Stats and player updates have since changed)
The first half of the MLB season has successfully come and gone and headlines have been aplenty in the first 85 or so games. In the Year of the Pitcher, as seemingly everybody is classifying it, 2010 has been filled with surprise names highlighting the box scores each night. Who would have expected Dallas Braden to throw a perfect game, during which he only enduced five swings and misses? Edwin Jackson wasn’t too much of a surprise to throw a no-hitter, as he’s always had great stuff, but his control has always been an issue and not many people thought he could stay potent long enough into games to eventually throw a no-no. He did have eight walks and credit D-Backs manager A.J. Hinch for sticking with him to the tune of 149 pitches, but I was still surprised to see his name added to the no-hitter list of the season. Roy Halladay wasn’t a surprise. Neither was Ubaldo Jimenez. But to have all four throw no-hitters/perfect games in the first half of one season? And then to have Armando Galarraga come within a Jim Joyce call of adding his name to that list?
Who’da thunk the Padres, Rangers and Reds would all be in first place still at the All-Star Break? And the Cubs would be in 4th place while the Phillies were almost five games behind the Atlanta Braves?
I never would have seen any of that coming.
But, that’s what’s so great about each individual season. To quote the great Forrest Gump, each new year is like a box of chocolates, you never know just what you’re going to get.
Oh-Ten has been abound with surprises in every aspect, fantasy included. Below is a list of the top 25 fantasy surprises of the 2010 season, complete with the players’ average draft position (ADP) in ESPN fantasy leagues and their stats at the All Star Break (a note on the ADP: anything coming in at 260 or higher means the player went undrafted in almost every league).
25. Alfredo Simon BAL (2-1, 3.24 ERA, 13 SVs, 20 K/25 IP, 1.48 WHIP, ADP: 260) and John Axford MIL (5-1, 3.12, 10 SVs, 32 K/26 IP, 1.21, ADP: 260)
Every year, closers come out of obscurity to vulture up a handful of saves while the guy who started the season as the stopper either limp to the DL or are banished to the earlier innings based on poor performance. 2010 is no different, with Simon and Axford as the front runners of this year’s closer parade. Neither boasts a great ERA or K/9 ratio and both play for poor teams whose chances for saves are few and far between, but they likely came at a very cheap price as they weren’t even afterthoughts on draft day.
24. Paul Konerko (.299 AVG, 20 HRs, 63 RBIs, 50 Rs, 0 SBs, ADP: 213.3)
Why is this guy drafted so low every year? Why doesn’t he get the love he deserves? As a Chicago man myself, I’ve seen day in and day out what Konerko is capable of. That being said, even I don’t take him high on draft day, but for reasons I can’t explain. He’s just one of those guys that goes largely unnoticed every year despite 5th-round worthy numbers. 2010 may very well be his career year and though he’s no longer a spring chicken (he’s 34), don’t let him fall to the 19th round next year.
23. Francisco Liriano MIN (6-7, 3.86, 117/107.1, 1.26, ADP: 210.1)
This should come as no surprise on the Top 25 Fantasy Surprises list as Liriano has been highly touted since he broke into the Majors in a big way in ’06, but has since been injured and ineffective. Most knew he was going to figure it out again eventually, but after three injury-plagued and terrible seasons, nobody was wanting to take the risk very high, as his ADP indicates. But, his numbers (especially his K rate) far, far exceed his ADP.
22. Andy Pettitte NYY (11-2, 2.70, 87/113.1, 1.15, ADP: 194.9)
The 38-year-old has been doing it for years—getting by under the radar. Pitching in front of the high-powered Yankees offense, nobody should be surprised by the wins. However, he has still maintained his K/9 rate despite his advanced age and his 2.70 ERA is incredible considering he has finished a season with an ERA below 3.27 in the AL in just one season in his career prior to 2010. Throw in the fact that the new Yankee stadium can be a launching pad for the longball and Pettitte’s ERA and WHIP are quite eye-popping.
21. Phil Hughes NYY (11-2, 3.65, 91/101, 1.18, ADP: 213.5)
Hughes has seemingly been touted as the next coming of Cy Young forever, but prior to ’10, had not come close to living up to his billing. However, after an overall successful season last year as a setup man, the win-now Yankees decided to move Hughes to the rotation and the move has paid the defending champs—and fantasy owners who were smart enough to snatch him on draft day—dividends in a big way. Hughes is stellar in every category, as he’s lost just twice this year. In every league, in every scoring format, Hughes has been one of the top pitchers this year and considering he was drafted in the 19th-20th round, that’s might impressive.
20. Mat Latos SD (10-4, 2.45, 99/106.2, 0.97, ADP: 212.6)
First thing I noticed about Latos when I included him on this list? He does indeed spell his first name with just one “t”, which is quite odd to me. Second thing I noticed? His 0.97 WHIP and 2.45 ERA! I knew he was having a great season, but those are No. 1 starter numbers. All from a relatively unknown? Yes, please. Sign me up. Put me on the mailing list. Throw in his 99 Ks in just over 106 innings and my mouth is watering like I’m just about to sit down and eat a Cinnabon (for those of you that don’t know what I’m talking about, those things are pure slices of doughy heaven).
19. Vladimir Guerrero TEX (.319, 20 HR, 75 RBIs, 55 Rs, 4 SB, ADP: 151.9)
It’s no surprise to see Vlady as a fantasy icon, as he spent the entire early part of the decade as one of the top options in any league format. But, to see his career resurgence in Texas after getting shooed out of Los Angeles after a poor (by his standards) and injury plagued season in ’09. His .295 average last year, while not bad in any way, shape or form, broke a streak of 12 straight seasons with at least a .300 average and it led many to believe that the 34-year-old outfielder was in a sharp decline. No more. Vlad has enjoyed one of the best first halves of his career while spending the majority of his time as the Rangers’ everyday DH. As David Ortiz has proved each of the past two seasons, the time frame it takes to throw aged sluggers out to the curb is as minute as just a couple of bad months. Vlad’s low ADP represents this, and assuming he can stay healthy down the stretch run, should continue to be a dynamic factor in the heart of a thriving Texas lineup.
18. Jaime Garcia STL (8-4, 2.17, 80/99.2, 1.30, ADP: 260)
Another product of the mastermind tandem of Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa, Garcia is quietly throwing his name in the NL Cy Young debate. His WHIP indicates his ERA will probably rise in the second half, but he’s also a young kid getting his first true taste of MLB life, so the first half may only be a sign of things to come. Garcia could join Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter to form a 1-2-3 trio for the Cardinals unlike any other since Smoltz-Glavine-Maddux for the Braves in the ‘90s.
17. Billy Wagner ATL (5-0, 1.21, 20, 56/37.1, 0.83, ADP: 154.7)
I remember the days of the late ‘90s when Wagner and Mariano Rivera were the dominant closers in the game, striking fear into every single hitter. After a resurgence of sorts for Rivera last year, Wagner has followed suit this year with a simply incredible first half for a first place Braves team. Wagner’s issue in the past half-decade has always been health and he’s finally healthy now, so ride it out.
16. Mike Pelfrey NYM (10-4, 3.58, 69/113, 1.44, ADP: 260)
Pelfrey had some poor starts heading into the All-Star Break that inflated his otherwise great first half numbers, but his 10 wins and low ERA are a welcome addition to any fantasy team. If only he could strike out hitters and keep his WHIP down, but hey, I’m not complaining. I’ll take 10 wins any day from an undrafted pitcher.
15. Ubaldo Jimenez COL (15-1, 2.20, 113/127, 1.05, ADP: 93.1) and David Price TB (12-4, 2.42, 127/136.1, 1.20, ADP: 165.7)
Two of the most highly touted pitching prospects in recent memory, Jimenez and Price are the main reason why everybody is calling 2010 the Year of the Pitcher. Both would be their respective league’s Cy Young in the first half and considering they were drafted, on average, in the 8th-13th rounds, that’s highway robbery. If you’re playing in a keeper league, don’t let these two out of your sights. Each has established himself in the Top 5-10 pitchers in the game.
14. Jon Rauch MIN (2-1, 2.38, 20 SVs, 25 K/34 IP, 1.28, ADP: 203.6)
The tallest man in the MLB certainly had a tall order to fill come Opening Day when he was asked by the Twins’ brass to take over the 9th inning duties after super-closer Joe Nathan went down for the season. Rauch has responded with 20 saves in 24 chances, a very solid total. His strikeouts (25 in 34 IP) aren’t off-the-wall, but his ERA (2.38) is very good and he is on a team that likely won’t blow anybody out, especially with Joe Mauer losing his power stroke and Justin Morneau dealing with injuries, so they will be in a lot of games, giving Rauch a lot of chances to continue to pick up saves in the second half. Plus, the Twins absolutely love playing 163 games in a season, having done it each of the past two years, so who knows? Maybe that is just one extra game Rauch gets to pitch in over the other standard closers in your league.
13. Chris Young ARI (.266, 15, 61, 48, 17, ADP: 194.5)
I wrote back in late March that Chris Young would join the 30-30 club this season and thus far, he is close to making me one right dude. I’ve always loved his power-speed combo, so much so in fact that I’ve drafted Young too high the past two seasons and stuck with him despite poor plate discipline and a dreadful average after he hit 32 home runs and stole 27 bases in his rookie season. I was able to secure him in one of my main leagues this year, but my friend James stole him in the other after reading my article and I’ve never forgiven him. Young is one of the few guys who can reach that elite 30-30 combo, so don’t be so willing to give up on him even if he has a few bad weeks in the second half of the season.
12. Rickie Weeks (.269, 15, 53, 56, 6, ADP: 199.6) and Kelly Johnson (.276, 14, 43, 52, 8, ADP: 224.4)
Both were once very fantasy relevant second basemen but injuries and lack of productiveness dropped Weeks and Kelly J. well below where they should have been drafted, thus allowing some lucky owner to count his blessings after stealing them in the latter round or two of most drafts.
11. Troy Glaus ATL (.254, 14, 58, 43, 0, ADP: 260)
Just like his teammate above on this list, Glaus’ issue has never been talent or lack of recognition in fantasy circles, but rather his health. This season, Glaus is healthy as well and is among the NL leaders in RBIs, surprising nearly everybody who passed up on him in the draft.
10. Corey Hart MIL (.288, 21, 65, 44, 4, ADP: 232.7)
A couple of years ago, Hart was a bonafide threat for 25 bombs and 25 steals in a season, packing a 1-2 punch of power and speed while hitting in a lineup that included Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. He also posted the lowest OBP of any regular in 2008 (.300), but hey, that doesn’t matter in most fantasy leagues. Hart must have forgotten to wear his sunglasses at night last year, falling from grace while missing/being benched for almost 50 games. This year, the shades are back on, his guitar is finely tuned and plucked (or whatever you do to a guitar, I’m not a musician) and his power is back. If only the steals would find their way to his game again as well, but that may be too much to ask from a guy who has already impressed fantasy leaguers.
9. Scott Rolen CIN (.290, 17, 57, 43, 0, ADP: 260)
If fantasy leaguers got points for intangibles, Rolen may have been first on this list. He’s been an enormous help in turning around the upstart Cincinnati Reds in the first half with his solid all-around play. In all of my leagues, it appeared that everybody was wary of Rolen’s fast start, as he went undrafted and then wasn’t picked up until the end of May, beginning of June when everybody realized he was for real. Trust me, he is for real and barring injury, will continue to stay productive down the stretch while hitting in the middle of an up-and-coming lineup in a hitter’s ballpark.
8. Jonny Gomes CIN (.277, 11, 60, 36, 2, ADP: 260)
Gomes, like Rolen, entered 2010 with his best fantasy days behind him, but has instead been influential in the Reds’ division-leading first half. He’s on pace to drive in over 100 runs and though he won’t light up any other department, he won’t hurt you, either.
7. Brett Gardner NYY (.309, 5, 29, 56, 25, ADP: 220.4)
I heard a stat the other day that Gardner faced the most pitches per plate appearances of any player in the Majors this year. A remarkable stat for a guy who was relatively unknown heading into this season, despite playing in the biggest MLB market in the universe. His high average, 45-steal, 100-run pace and decent power numbers (for a leadoff, No. 9 hitter, that is) has provided those owners who took a late-round flier on him with a huge season. Think a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury with a better potential for runs as he walks more than his Boston counterpart.
6. Alex Gonzalez TOR/ATL (.259, 17, 50, 47, 1, ADP: 260)
No, not the former Cubs shortstop who helped blow the 2003 NLCS for the North Siders. This Alex Gonzalez, the former defensive whiz who had a couple productive fantasy seasons with the Florida Marlins before fading into obscurity, has announced his arrival on the fantasy scene in a big way in ’10. His 30-homer, 95-RBI, 90-run pace from a normally shallow position is a huge boost, but to get that kind of production off the waiver wire is like striking gold in the San Francisco gold rush.
5. Jose Bautista TOR (.237, 24, 56, 55, 3, ADP: 260)
Quick, who was the ML’s home run leader at the break? OK, I’m sure by now everybody has heard Jose Bautista is having an allegedly steroid-free power surge this year. Blowing every other season of his career out of the water, Bautista is challenging for a 40-100-100 season this year that and considering the fact he wasn’t even an afterthought on draft day, 40-100-100 far and away outweighs his poor average. Throw in the fact that Bautista qualifies at 3B and OF and you could make a case that he is one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy this season.
4. Carlos Silva CHC (9-3, 3.45, 72/101.2, 1.14, ADP: 260)
To top the MLB’s home-run leader at the All Star Break on this list takes some serious first-half surprise pedigree and Silva certainly has that. He was maybe the most hittable pitcher with the Seattle Mariners (remember, they play in a spacious park) the past two seasons and if the Cubs had not wanted to usher Milton Bradley out of town so badly, Silva might not of even been pitching this season. But, the Cubs saw something in him and boy were they right. Nine wins on a vastly underachieving Cubs team is quite the feat, but a 1.14 WHIP and 3.45 ERA are almost Hall of Fame worthy when considering owners didn’t even have to waste a last-round draft pick on Silva.
3. Colby Lewis TEX (8-5, 3.33, 105/110.2, 1.12, ADP: 260)
A former first-round draft pick (in the MLB, not fantasy) Lewis never amounted to much at the ML level, let alone in fantasy circles, but he did a tour in Japan and must have caught the pitching bug over there. Lewis’ great strikeout totals and excellent WHIP help boost his value as a good pitcher in a hitter’s park. Throw in the former first-round talent and maybe the Majors’ best offense at his back and Lewis is poised to be the Sundance to Cliff Lee’s Butch in Arlington.
2. Carl Pavano MIN (10-6, 3.58, 71/125.2, 1.03, ADP: 260)
The mustachioed warrior is back to being fantasy relevant yet again, posting double digit wins and an outstanding WHIP while spending the offseason as little more than a pimple on a blip on fantasy radars heading into 2010. He is effective with his pitches and hardly walks anybody, so for leagues that reward innings pitched and complete games, Pavano is even more valuable. He’ll easily move past 200 IP this year and even in standard roto leagues, his low WHIP and ERA in his lofty innings totals will help your overall team regardless. Now if only we can get him to shave off his Tom Selleck-esque mustache.
1. Brennan Boesch DET (.342, 12, 49, 34, 2, ADP: 260)
Who? No, seriously, who? I may not be the world’s foreknown expert on MLB prospects, but seeing Brennan Boesch’s name cross the bottom line of ESPN so often in the first month of the season didn’t register. But, the rookie is challenging for a batting title while providing 25-homer power with 100-RBI and 80-run potential. Heck, he could do worse than listen to Johnny Damon, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez in the same clubhouse, some of the best hitters of the past decade.
Leave a Rant
and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!
FEATURED PARTNERS
- The 13 Greatest Tricks The Devil Ever Played
- New "Hunger Games" Trailer
- Everything Nicki Minaj Demands While On Tour
- Tim Tebow's Last Temptation ... Scantily Clad Women
- Elton John's Hubby David Furnish -- I Will NOT Watch Madonna's Super Bowl Performance
- NBA Legend Bill Bridges -- Marriott Steam Room Scorched My Flesh!
- Vermont Inmates Hide Image of a Pig in Official Police Car Decal
- Watch the Official SnowGlobe Recap Video
- A Guide to the Super Bowl Commercials