Tony’s Mock Draft Analysis
August 26, 2010 by Tony Andracki
Filed under Football
As I’m sure you know by now, we recently had our first-ever RantSports Fantasy Football Mock Draft. Due to technical difficulties, we only recorded 5 rounds, but those 5 rounds were pretty interesting and very indicative of how a real-life draft would go.
Click here to review the results of the first-ever RantSports Fantasy Football Mock Draft.
The biggest outside factor (let’s call it the “X-Factor”) in live drafts is each owner’s fan loyalties. Scott Rogers is a Vikings fan. Alex Reside is a Ravens fan. Chris Walsh is a Dolphins fan. Phil Lasseigne is a Saints fan.
I knew all that going into the draft. So, if this were a real league, I may choose to value a guy like Drew Brees or Reggie Bush higher than normal and then trade him to Phil later, knowing how much he loved those guys. If I was picking 1 and Scott was picking 2, I might select Adrian Peterson and let him take Chris Johnson and then package AP in with a later pick—say my 10th rounder—for CJ2K and his ninth rounder or something.
However, this was just a Mock Draft, so trades are obsolete (though my strategy is one to keep in mind in your league’s draft, so long as you don’t reach too far for your competitors’ favorite players like Phil did with Bush and Chris W. did with Brandon Marshall). But, the loyalties of the owners still holds weight here.
Because Chris W. is such a big ‘Fins fan, he took Brandon Marshall as the third WR off the board, something that may not happen in many drafts outside of Florida. Also, Reggie Bush would likely not have been taken until the sixth or seventh round in many other drafts.
So, then how is our odd draft relevant then? Well, that’s simple—because it’s realistic. You look all the time at Mock Drafts across the country from “experts” and you see nothing but Top 200 lists just being read off in the order of teams. For the most part, Mock Drafts with experts are too predictable. Now, even the best of the best will not agree with who should be selected where and when, but it’s all relatively the same.
Our draft, however, took fan loyalties into place and makes it much more helpful to the average reader.
Take note of your opposing owners’ favorite teams and favorite players. I knew that Scott Rogers wanted Jamaal Charles, so had I actually had a pick ahead of him in the third round, I would have taken Charles, because I knew he wouldn’t get past Scott and I wouldn’t have another chance.
Do your homework. Pay attention throughout the first 5 rounds of your draft to get a gauge on your other owners. Be a detective. Play “slyclologist,” as the accidently-funny Tommy Wiseau says (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heL4jpQr9So&feature=related). Go to about 1:00 in on the clip to see what I’m talking about.
Round-by-Round Analysis
First Round
My Take: I would have gone with CJ2K over AP, but those initials are pretty interchangeable with the first and second picks. There is nobody else who warrants a Top 2 pick besides those guys.
Best Value: Aaron Rodgers to me at 12. He’s the top fantasy QB, as he even adds rushing points, and should be a Top 5 pick in drafts.
Worst Pick: Calvin Johnson to Eric at 10. Megatron is a great player and could wind up being the top fantasy WR some season, but that year is not this year. Matty Stafford is still too green and their running game is left in the hands of Jahvid Best right now, so who knows what will come of that? Not to mention the offensive line will likely figure to be in the bottom half of the league, so Matty will have less time to get the ball downfield to Calvy.
Second Round
My Take: I love that I had last pick. I’ll talk more about that later, but it felt good to get a top RB to lead things off. B-Marsh, Ryan Mathews and Tom Brady were taken too soon in my opinion.
Best Value: Randy Moss to Chris D. at 23rd overall. Moss is being taken in the first round in a lot of leagues and is widely considered the No. 2 WR behind ‘Dre-‘Dre.
Worst Pick: Brandon Marshall at 14th overall. Chris W. is a Dolphins fan. Figures. Since Jay Cutler was traded from the Broncos last year, B-Marsh has not been a truly elite WR, even including his 21-reception game last year. Chad Henne is an up-and-comer, but still. Marshall should not be taken any higher than the third round.
Third Round
My Take: Sucks about Sidney Rice’s injury, but we didn’t know that at the time. Other than that, I have no qualms with this pick. (Qualms—that’s a funny word. I’m going to use that more.)
Best Value: Tony Romo at 34. I think Scott got great value from Jamaal Charles, who will perform like a No. 1 back this year, and Phil got great value from Miles Austin, who could wind up as the No. 2 WR overall this year, but Romo at 34?? Behind six other QBs? No way is Romo the seventh best QB, not with all the weapons around him. Figure a healthy Felix Jones to be like Reggie Bush, but good. Dez Bryant is already better than Roy Williams and Roy Williams is arguably the best No. 3 WR on depth charts in the league, provided he actually tries. Jason Witten is his go-to guy and Austin may look like a T-Rex, but his arms are plenty long and will haul in close to 100 passes this year. Yet, Romo falls to 34?? No, I say only Green Bay’s A-Rod outperforms him at QB this year, if anybody.
Worst Pick: Tie: Pierre Thomas at 26 and Jahvid Best at 35. Thomas is in a pass-first offense with Reggie Bush and Ladell Betts vulturing up touches at RB, Thomas is a fourth-round pick at best. Best is an unproven back, who was not highly touted coming out of college and is on a team with a bad offensive line (see: Johnson, Calvin above) and a team that will have to throw a lot because it will be behind late in the game.
Fourth Round
My Take: I’m surprised Antonio Gates went 10 picks before Dallas Clark and I’m real high on both Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin this year. Flacco has made tremendous strides in his two years in the NFL and with a legitimate threat in Boldin to throw to, not to mention Donte’ Stallworth to stretch the field, Flacco will outperform last year as the entire rest of the offense around him is still the same. Boldin is a good pick because he will finally get a chance to be the No. 1 with a good QB in a good offense on a good team. Good for him.
Best Value: LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte at 45 and 46. Both are the feature backs in their offenses and both will catch a lot of passes, which help in PPR leagues as well as just adding to their point totals week in and week out.
Worst Pick: I actually thought this round went really well. Nobody seemed to reach. Knowshon Moreno at 42 was the worst pick in this round, but just because he didn’t “wow” anybody last year. But, he is the feature back on a decent team, so you never know.
Fifth Round
My Take: Eight WRs taken. That seems about right. Ranked in order: Steve Smith (CAR), Wes Welker, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Michael Crabtree, Chad Ochocinco, Mike Sims-Walker. That’s not how they were drafted.
Best Value: Steve Smith 53rd overall. Smith has good chemistry with Matt Moore and is still one of the elite fantasy WRs in my opinion. He’s a solid No. 1 WR choice, even at this point in his career, even without a legitimate QB.
Worst Pick: Reggie Bush. Not worth a fifth round pick. No way.
Teams (Ranked in order from best to worst)
Scott Rogers
1. Ray Rice RB
2. Larry Fitzgerald WR
3. Jamaal Charles RB
4. LeSean McCoy RB
5. Steve Smith (CAR)
Scott was fortunate to have Ray Rice fall to him with the 5th pick. Rice is huge in PPR leagues and his receiving totals help him in every league, regardless of the format. Fitzgerald is the No. 2 or 3 WR in the whole league, so to go in the second round is lucky. As I said before, Charles will perform as a No. 1 back, and McCoy is a feature back in a good offense, so he will get a lot of carries and receptions. Also as I said earlier, Steve Smith is still an elite fantasy WR. This team is very well balanced and with QBs like Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning and Jay Cutler out there, he likely would have ended up with the best team had the draft gone past Round Five.
Brett Rosin
1. Michael Turner RB
2. Reggie Wayne WR
3. Greg Jennings WR
4. Matt Forte RB
5. Hakeem Nicks WR
Turner is a great back and Brett was able to secure two No. 1 receivers in Wayne and Jennings. Forte is a steal in the fourth round and considering how explosive he has looked in the preseason, should perform as a high-end No. 2 back. Nicks is good value at fifth round, but Brett needs a QB, though thankfully, there were a lot of good options left.
Alex Reside
1. Steven Jackson RB
2. Ryan Grant RB
3. Beanie Wells RB
4. Joe Flacco QB
5. Wes Welker WR
Alex’s team would be higher on this list if he had more WRs, and unfortunately, with the way the draft went, there are not that many good options at WR left after the fifth round. Decent options, sure, but with 22 WRs gone in the first five rounds, he may be hurting. The combo of Jackson, Grant and Wells is incredible, easily the best RB tandem in our mock league. We set it up so that three RBs could be in the lineup at the same time (we had a flex WR/RB option), so Alex’s bold move of taking a RB with his first three picks is OK, though not ideal in any league or any format. But Flacco and Welker are good picks to round out a very good team.
Tony Andracki
1. Aaron Rodgers QB
2. DeAngelo Williams RB
3. Steve Smith (NYG) WR
4. Joseph Addai RB
5. Mike Sims-Walker WR
That’s right. Myself. You should walk away from your draft feeling as if you have the best team. Had we gone past Round Five, I would have most assuredly felt this way. However, my first five picks only earn me the fourth-best nod right now. I love that I was able to get Aaron Rodgers, the top fantasy QB in a lot of people’s eyes, all the way at pick 12. I love having either the first or last pick in snake drafts, because then I could take two picks in a row. It’s a big challenge because you have to anticipate positional runs (like the WR run in Round Five) and you have 18-22 picks in between your picks, but you get to choose both your guys at once. I love it. I’m not happy that Steve Smith of the Giants is my No. 1 WR. Should have gone with Boldin or Colston, guys who have done it before more than one year. But, Smith is an elite fantasy WR for sure. I don’t like Addai, but he was the best back available at Round Four. If this were a real league, I would try to move Addai in a trade. I don’t like Sims-Walker as a fifth-round pick, but I do like him as my No. 2 WR. I should have announced Owen Daniels (who would have been my sixth round pick) in the fifth round, instead. Stay tuned to our site for more on Owen Daniels and how high I am on him.
Brandon Lachance
1. Drew Brees QB
2. Rashard Mendenhall RB
3. Sidney Rice WR
4. Jonathan Stewart RB
5. Chad Ochocinco
Brandon got burned because Rice is not injured, but as it stood, a starting lineup with these five is not a bad option in any league. Nothing flashy, but very, very solid the whole way ‘round.
Heather Patterson
1. Maurice Jones-Drew RB
2. Philip Rivers QB
3. Roddy White WR
4. CJ Spiller RB
5. Michael Crabtree WR
Mo-Jo is a great pick, but that’s an easy one. Rivers is a top fantasy QB and Roddy White is a flat-out steal in the third round. This team hinges on whether its young guys—Spiller and Crabtree—can fully fulfill their potential. If they do, this is a team that places this year. If they don’t, this is a team that ends in the middle of the pack.
Philip Lasseigne
1. Adrian Peterson RB
2. Matt Schaub QB
3. Miles Austin WR
4. Dallas Clark TE
5. Reggie Bush RB
Phil had the first overall pick and didn’t screw it up. Any team with AP on it should wind up near the top. However, Reggie Bush is really bringing this team down. Bush has never been a No. 2 fantasy RB option, nor has he ever warranted a pick as high as the fifth round. He may this year, but I think that’s very unlikely. Schaub, Austin and Clark are top performers at their position, however.
Dan Parzych
1. Frank Gore RB
2. Cedric Benson RB
3. DeSean Jackson WR
4. Anquan Boldin WR
5. Michael Bush RB
Gore, Jackson and Boldin are good picks, but I don’t like Benson in the second round and Bush is sort of an unknown right now. Everybody is high on those two guys, but I’m not so much. This team needs a QB, but as I’ve said, there are plenty available after these first five rounds.
Kevin Massoth
1. Andre Johnson WR
2. Tom Brady QB
3. Shonn Greene RB
4. Knowshon Moreno RB
5. Percy Harvin WR
‘Dre-‘Dre is a great pick and Tom Brady is a good starting fantasy QB, but I think Kevin could have gotten Brady or a QB that could put up similar numbers in the third round or later and gone with a premier RB or another premier WR with his second pick. Shonn Greene may be the real thing for Gang Green, but he’s not a safe No. 1 RB fantasy option.
Eric Scmidt
1. Calvin Johnson WR
2. Ryan Mathews RB
3. Tony Romo QB
4. Antonio Gates TE
5. Mike Wallace WR
Calvin Johnson was taken way too early, and Ryan Mathews is not yet a No. 1 fantasy RB. You can’t have your No. 1 RB be an unproven rookie. That being said, Eric began to redeem himself with very good picks of Romo, Gates and Wallace as the draft wore on.
Chris Davies
1. Chris Johnson RB
2. Randy Moss WR
3. Pierre Thomas RB
4. Vernon Davis TE
5. Kevin Kolb QB
CJ2K and Moss were great picks, but Davies went downhill with his Pierre Thomas pick. He also reached on Vernon Davis, who has just one good fantasy season under his belt, and Kevin Kolb, who should be a good pick, but Chris could have gotten him or equivalent value at the QB spot in Round Six or later.
Chris Walsh
1. Peyton Manning QB
2. Brandon Marshall WR
3. Jahvid Best RB
4. Marques Colston WR
5. Ronnie Brown RB
As I’ve said above, Marshall and Best are suspect picks, at best. Manning is not a bad pick, but how does one pass up Aaron Rodgers in the first round if you’re taking a QB? I also think Romo is a better fantasy QB for 2010, and he was taken in the third round, so Chris could have easily taken a top-notch RB with this pick. Colston is a solid WR, but Brown is injury-prone and a high-risk player.
All in all, this was a very solid draft and a very respectable draft from all those involved. Each owner secured a team that, if a couple things go well (some teams need to pray more than others), will be a challenge to face week in and week out.
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