(This is part 3 of a 5-part series, check back soon for part 4 and for another addition of players I do like…)

In Tony’s recent analysis of RantSports first annual mock draft, he was very critical of the second round pick of Brandon Marshall, the newly acquired Dolphins WR.

This is not a shocking criticism, as I also disagreed with this pick, my analysis of which can be read here. What struck me, however, was his assessment of Brandon Marshall’s value in fantasy football. To briefly quote Tony, he wrote that:

“Since Jay Cutler was traded from the Broncos last year, B-Marsh has not been a truly elite WR, even including his 21-reception game last year. Chad Henne is an up-and-comer, but still. Marshall should not be taken any higher than the third round.”

This got me to thinking.

Though Marshall is undoubtedly a very talented WR and will definitely help the Dolphins this season, I couldn’t help but consider whether the stats Marshall has accrued have made him worthy of being a top WR in fantasy. After careful consideration, I have come to the conclusion that outside of a points per reception league in the past few years, my answer is no.

So now Marshall finds himself in the third installment of my “Players I Hate” series of articles. Hate seems like an especially strong word for the feelings I have towards Marshall, in fact “hate” might be a strong term for any of the players I write this column about (except Tom Brady, I do hate him). So don’t mind me as I take this opportunity to explain what qualifies as my “hate” of football players, in a fantasy sense.

What gets a player a place in this column is me disagreeing with their perceived value in the fantasy football community. Though I wouldn’t mind having Brandon Marshall on my team, my draft would feel like a failure if I walked out of the second round with him as my No. 1 WR. For reasons that I am about to detail, his tantalizing upside simply doesn’t match up with what I perceive to be his ultimate weakness: mainly an inflated sense of value due to his number of catches.

The Positives

To begin with, here is a chart of Marshall’s first four seasons in the league detailing his receiving statistics only (he had a few rushes here and there).

YEAR	GAMES	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD
2006	15	20	309	15.5	71	2
2007	16	102	1325	13	68	7
2008	15	104	1265	12.2	47	6
2009	15	101	1120	11.1	75	10

The stat that obviously stands out the most is his run of three straight seasons with at least 101 catches. That is just ridiculous. Its not like he puts up these numbers with just a few huge games either, the guy is a consistent threat to catch four or more balls a game. Consider the fact that since his second year in the league, the one in which he really broke out, he has never caught less than two passes in any game.

That is also ridiculous. Especially since he’s only had one two-catch game in this span, and it was early in his second season. To put that into perspective, in the same time frame Andre Johnson has four games with only two catches. I could make the argument that this stat is even more mind boggling when you consider the fact that Marshall played on teams which largely held more firepower than any of Johnson’s. Johnson has been the No. 1 threat for the Texans his entire career; Marshall hasn’t, and yet he still found a way to get the ball.

As an added bonus Marshall has thrown his owners an absolutely monster week at least once a season, which is a nice break from his mundane consistency. Consider week 2 of the 2008 season, where after returning from a one-game suspension, Marshall promptly went on to catch 18 passes for 166 yards and a TD. Then there’s his record-breaking, 21 catch, 200 yards and 2 TDs week 14 against the Super Bowl bound Colts.

Note: I still think Terrell Owens’ stat line of 20 catches, 283 yards and a TD in 2000 is far more impressive than Marshall’s record-breaker. Props to T.O.

The Negatives

With all that being said, there is no way that I’m taking Marshall ahead of Johnson. Look at the rest of his numbers, they don’t really stand out. Marshall’s yards are so-so, as are his yards-per-catch. Before last year, he had never ventured into double digit TD territory either. Of course, Andre Johnson has never had a double digit TD season, but he piles up so many yards that you kind of forgive him for it. Marshall does not.

Looking at these numbers, it becomes clear that more than anything, Marshall is predominantly a possession receiver. He’s a big, physical receiver that is great after the catch (remember last season’s game winning catch and run against the Cowboys?) but he lacks real deep speed and drops the occasional ball he should catch.

Let’s also consider the new offensive system he finds himself in. The Dolphins are still nurturing a young QB who is entering only his second season starting and third season overall. Don’t get me wrong, I love the potential of Chad Henne going all CHAD HENNNNNEEE this season (you know what I mean) and I wouldn’t mind grabbing him late as a backup QB with excellent breakout potential, but he didn’t exactly set the world on fire last year. His 12 TDs to 14 INTs is pedestrian, and he closed the season’s final six games throwing 10 INTs as the Dolphins were still in the thick of the playoff race.

The Dolphins are going to have to run the ball, but it’s not like they don’t want to. They love running it so much that they have a formation which essentially eliminates any possibility of passing (I realize the reasoning for its genesis was much more complicated than this, but I can pretend, right?). The Wildcat is what they call it, as I’m sure you already know. I see no way in which Marshall recreates his 100-plus reception season for the fourth time, expect him to come down to somewhere in the 80’s, which would obviously limit his value in PPR leagues.

I think even more persuasive are the offensive systems in which he has previously been in. Those first two years were under Mike Shanahan, a well-respected coach who ran his signature run-heavy west coast offense straight to the unemployment line (for a season). In his three years of fantasy relevance, Marshall spent two of these three under Shanahan’s coaching. In these two years, can you tell me who was leading the famed Broncos rushing attack? In 2007, three backs with the aid of then-QB Jay Cutler combined to rush for 1,957 yards; while in 2008, the Broncos rushed for 1,862 combined yards, with nearly every running back on that team suffering a season ending injury. Of course the main reason that Shanahan ended up losing his job at the end of the 2008 season was the defense, an embarrassing unit which gave up 409 points. The offense scored 320 points. This stat means that the Broncos needed to pass the ball frequently, as they would find themselves outscored by the opposing team if they did not.

As for last year, Josh McDaniels was the new coach of the Broncos, a man who “pioneered” the Patriots’ record-setting, pass-first, spread-offense. The guy called a lot of pass plays because he could, and that’s with Kyle Orton as his QB (sorry, but no one will ever mistake him for Tom Brady on the football field). Even Jabar Gaffney caught 14 passes for 213 yards in a game which Marshall was suspended from last year (no offense to Gaffney, I do like him).

Clearly, Marshall has been in very favorable situations which only helped boost his stats. Yet, the overall main reason that I would not take Marshall so early is simply due to the uncertainty which surrounds him. He’s a WR on a new team. For my first two picks, I like to select players who are proven commodities, so mainly a RB that has at least one big season under his belt and a WR who consistently puts up strong numbers.

Basically, I would love to walk out with Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald (I know there’s some uncertainty about who is throwing to him, but I’ll discuss this in another article soon). These guys have all been very productive receivers for multiple years now, and for the most part, they don’t appear to be heading towards a fall off anytime soon.

Where to Draft

Marshall likely won’t make it past the second round, but I believe he is worth only a third round pick. Of course, you might find yourself needing to take a chance on his talent in the second round at certain situations, as I recently did in a mock. As with all the players I profile, the way your draft is unfolding should determine where you choose a player. If you’re selecting at the end of the second and their happens to be a run on the elite WRs I previously mentioned, well then you just might have to take a chance on Marshall.

I have read some profiles of Marshall where the writer tries to point out his supposed character flaws may hurt his chances to have a big season, but I personally don’t endorse any of these views. Let’s not get all Skip Bayless here, just because a young man had problems in the past off the field doesn’t mean that he will in the future. Plus Marshall once pointed out a fan who had been throwing bottles or something onto the field at referees, an act which made me think “hey, here’s a nice guy.”

His concern for refs on the football field doesn’t get him out of this article, however. Marshall is a solid third round or later pick. If you have to reach on him then do it, but don’t be surprised if you don’t see an adequate return on your investment.