(This is part 4 of a 5-part series, check back soon for part 5 and for another edition of players I’m not so fond of…)

Usually I reserve a place in this column for players who technically qualify as “sleepers,” or at the very least, mid-round picks which I believe will exceed expectations.

Larry Fitzgerald does not fit the bill of either, as I’m sure you know. Yet the reason I have decided to profile him is in reaction to a consensus which has formed around this stud WR. Apparently, I didn’t get the memo: Fitzgerald is no longer a stud fantasy WR and should be avoided at all costs.

The argument backing up this statement is somewhat persuading. Kurt Warner retired, leaving the uninspiring Matt Leinart and the unbelievably inaccurate Derek Anderson competing to be his heir apparent.

So the question becomes, should you be worried about Fitzgerald? As you can tell by the title, my answer is a resounding no.

The History

Anyone who has watched Larry Fitzgerald play (which is everyone after his amazing 2009 postseason) can attest to his talent. Simply put, he is unmatched in the league, with the exception of Andre Johnson. Fitzgerald is a slower, yet more physical Randy Moss with a better attitude and a greater will to succeed. Of course, you can’t quantify those last two attributes, but they are such huge ingredients behind his success thus far in his career that to not mention them would be a mistake. Fitzgerald simply outworks everyone on and off the football field; he wants to be the best ever whereas other WRs just assume that they are.

Plus, he can catch footballs upside down. So yeah, the talent/motivation is there.

Despite all this, there appears to be a malaise surrounding Fitzgerald in the fantasy community. I’ve noticed that those who end up selecting him feel somewhat less than confident in their pick, as though somehow this guy is going to experience a dramatic drop in production. I just simply don’t believe that to be the case.

Consider the stats. Last year with Kurt Warner was one of Fitzgerald’s worst seasons, and he still scored a career high 13 TDs. So why was it a down season? Well he barely crossed the 1,000 yard threshold, ending his season with only 1,092 yards. This after posting back to back 1,400 yard seasons. He also had his lowest yards-per-reception of his amazing career, putting up a relatively pedestrian 11.3, a full two yards lower than his career average of 13.5. His longest reception only went for 34 yards as well, a dramatically low number for this big play machine.

Why was this? It’s easy–the Hall of Fame QB that everyone is pointing towards as the main cause of the falloff Fitzgerald is supposed to have this upcoming season could no longer get the ball deep. People assume that just because Brett Favre is in his 40’s and still has a tremendous cannon (tied with the best ever with John Elway and yes, Jeff George) that Warner does too. Sorry to break it to everyone, but Favre is the exception to the rule–arm strength does fade as you age. Warner retired not only because he lost the desire to play, but because he simply could no longer physically perform at a high level. The guy known for big play after big play’s longest pass last season went for 43 yards. The Saints were able to beat the Cardinals so easily by concentrating their coverage on the short to intermediate routes, knowing that Warner no longer possessed the ability to beat them deep. Knowing this, I will go against the grain in stating that Fitzgerald will have better numbers this season without Warner than if he had the former MVP throwing to him.

That doesn’t mean that I expect the Cardinals to be better. In fact, I, like everyone else, have picked the 49ers to win the NFC West. I expect the Cardinals to be picking within the Top 20 of the next years draft, where I also expect they will take a real franchise QB. Neither Leinart nor Anderson (both will probably start at different points in the season) have the makeup of elite QBs. Leinart is too slow reading defenses and his arm could be stronger (but, it’s still better than Warner’s of last year) and Anderson has a cannon, but terrible accuracy. Neither one should ever start for your fantasy team or be drafted; they won’t put up numbers worthy of either.

They will be able to get the ball to Fitzgerald, though, as he ups his yardage from last year by at least 200 and stays in the double digit TD department. Follow my logic: during the Cardinals’ run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, it was stated in nearly every playoff game the Cardinals played in by whoever was announcing the game that Kurt Warner had to learn to just throw the ball up to Fitzgerald. The second most accurate QB of all time had to teach himself that the best play sometimes was to throw the ball somewhere near Fitzgerald, even if he appeared to be covered. Derek Anderson, a man who started in the NFL last year despite completing less than 50 percent of this passes, loves throwing the ball to no one or where in particular. Even Matt Leinart, a guy who is at least a little bit more accurate than Anderson, should be fine just chucking the ball up to a talent like Fitzgerald.

Historical Trends

If I haven’t persuaded you thus far, then let’s take a look at how some other great WRs fared the season after their Hall of Fame QBs retired. Thanks to profootballreference.com, by the way, for these stats.

Rod Smith: He’s probably not the name you expected to see on this list, but remember that in the late 90’s and early 2000’s, Smith was a Pro Bowl receiver. He also won two Super Bowls with John Elway as his starting QB, so he has the credentials. In ’98, the Broncos’ second SB run, he had 86 catches for 1,222 yards and 6 TDs. The year after, Elway retired and Brian Griese replaced him, with Smith still putting up 79 catches for 1,020 yards and 4 TDs. While his stats without Elway were a little bit lower, it is important to note that he put up these comparable numbers in one less game, so Smith would have more than likely at least added more yards to his end of year total in ’99, keeping his fantasy value very similar.

Cris Carter: Remember when Hall of Fame QB Warren Moon went to the Vikings for a few years? Probably not, the Vikings were usually one and done in the playoffs during his tenure as their starting QB after all. Moon’s last season as the primary starter in Minnesota was 1996, a year in which Carter had 96 catches for 1,163 yards and 10 TDs. The following season, Brad Johnson took over as the main QB, with Carter subsequently catching 89 passes for 1,069 yards and 13 TDs. The difference in yardage here is clearly so minimal that with the addition of the extra TDs, Carter had for the most part identical fantasy years.

Jerry Rice: I’ll wrap up with the best of the best. 1990 was Joe Montana’s real last season as the starter for the 49ers. In the NFC Championship game this season, he was so badly injured that he spent the next two seasons on the bench backing up Steve Young. In ’90 with Montana, Rice had one of his characteristically stellar seasons, catching 100 passes for 1,502 yards and 14 TDs. The season after with Young as the starting QB, Rice dropped down to 80 catches for 1,206 yards and 14 TDs. Despite the minor drop in catches and yards, most fantasy owners would be more than satisfied with Rice’s output.

After analyzing the way in which these three WRs dealt with the retirement or demotion of their Hall of Fame QBs, one thing becomes clear–great players make great plays, regardless of who is throwing them the ball. Sure, Young turned out to be a great, Hall of Fame QB, but Brian Griese and Brad Johnson? Not so much. All of these WRs were also coming off of great seasons, in some cases one of their bests at that particular time in their careers. Fitzgerald is not, and for all the reasons previously listed, I believe he will benefit from the switch in QB.

Draft Position

The bottom line is that Fitzgerald is simply too ridiculously talented to not put up numbers. Is he the surefire first round pick that he has been in the past few years? No, he is not. I will give you that. But he is and should be the second WR selected in all drafts, right behind Andre Johnson.

I know that I left out any discussion of Anquan Boldin’s trade to Baltimore, but honestly I believe the WR depth in Arizona will easily fill in for his absence. Boldin hasn’t ever been exactly injury-free either, there have been plenty of times Fitzgerald has had to play without Boldin, and his performance rarely suffers.

Grab Fitzgerald at the top of the second round, and if he drops, consider yourself a lucky and well-informed fantasy owner. Then please refrain from naming your team “The Great Fitzgeralds.” You’re better than that.

Check out Players I Love: Part I, Part II and Part III. And Players I Hate: Part I, Part II and Part III.