After the Bears’ improbable win Monday night, my friend Chris posted a Facebook status reading: “If I would have told you, with Big Ben suspended, that the Steelers would go 3-0 along with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Chicago Bears at the start of the season, what would you have thought?”

Now, I gave him a sarcastic answer (something along the lines of I already think he’s crazy, so that statement wouldn’t have changed my opinion any), but that’s not the point. The point is, he’s right. That is freakin’ crazy.

I mean, not only are teams like the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys struggling, but no other team is 3-0 besides these three surprises. Not Indianapolis (who always seems to start a season 14-0 no matter what changes there are in the roster or coaching staff). Not the reigning Super Bowl Champs New Orleans Saints. Nope. Who dat say dey 3-0? Kansas City, Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh and offensive-line challenged Chicago. You’ve got to be kidding me.

If you were to go back and simulate this season one million times from start to finish, you would honestly be hard-pressed to get this exact same result more than once. Yes, that’s a one in a million shot.

Lloyd: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are the chances Kansas City, Chicago and Pittsburgh all go 3-0 to start the ’10 season?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I’d say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you’re telling me there’s a chance…YEAH!

Real or Fake?

“Who would win in a fight, Mike Ditka or God? Trick question, Ditka IS God.”

Maybe so, but even God (or Ditka, depending on where your loyalties lie) couldn’t have predicted the Bears’ improbable start to the season. Not after last year with turnover-prone Jay Cutler at the helm of the offense and a defense lacking the ability to create any sort of a big play. Not after a horrendous preseason.

But, that’s just proof that preseason doesn’t matter and each year is a fresh, new season. Outside of the locker room at Halas Hall in Lake Forest, Ill., (the Bears practice facility), there was not one person in the world who could honestly say they saw the Bears getting past both the Cowboys in Dallas and the Packers after watching that preseason, or even after watching the first game against the Detroit Lions.

But, that’s all that truly matters. What a team thinks of itself. After the worst preseason showing for an offensive line in the history of the game, Cutler didn’t throw his teammates under the bus. After an 0-4 exhibition record, head coach Lovie Smith didn’t waver from his annoyingly positive press conferences. No, they truly believed they would be 3-0 at this point in the season.

So, yes they are real. Because sports are just as much confidence and heart as they are preparation and talent. As Yogi Berra once said, “90 percent of the game is half mental.” And the Bears certainly have the “mental” aspect of the game down right now.

After the first three games, it’s clear the Monsters of the Midway are back in the Windy City. They’re finding ways to come out victorious in games they have no business winning, just like they did in their 2006 Super Bowl season. The defense is back to the big hits, the big plays and most of all—turnovers. They’re clutch again, coming up with a huge play just when the team needs it most. They’re inspiring fear into their opponents. Just take that Dallas game—there wasn’t a receiver out there in Big D that wanted to go over the middle, not with the way the Bears were hitting.

Julius Peppers is a huge, huge influence on that defense. In Monday night’s game against the Pack, he only had two tackles and a blocked field goal (which was a huge play in and of itself), but he was the most disruptive player on the field. The Packers knew they couldn’t contain him fairly, so they were constantly getting flagged for holding penalties and false starts (by my unofficial count as I watched the game, Peppers caused four false start penalties and drew four flags for holding, accounting for eight of the Packers’ team-record-tying 18 penalties). Peppers plays his best games on the biggest stage and the market in Chicago is just perfect for him. He’s in the limelight constantly and is being adored by fans, coaches and teammates and should continue to turn in motivated performances.

Brian Urlacher’s resurgence is also a big reason why the Bears’ D is once again a feared unit. His hits have been incredible this year (as James Jones can attest to) and his absence for 15.5 games last year was a major hit to that defense.

Jay Cutler is also a changed man, as I wrote about last week. I said this Monday night contest with the Packers would be his biggest test of the season, and he passed with flying colors. He has shown incredible resiliency over the season’s first few weeks, bouncing back after a bad throw (like his interception early in the game Monday night) or getting back up after a big hit (which he has taken a lot of his year behind that shaky offensive line). He’s become a true leader and a true winner.

That being said, the defense is pretty poor against the pass (279.3 yards allowed per game) and has just two sacks while the offensive line has allowed eight sacks on Cutler, which, frankly, is a miracle it’s not higher, and has not done anything to open any holes in the running game (Matt Forte and Chester Taylor are both averaging just 2.8 yards per carry).

But, the passing offense is dynamic and filled with weapons and if Cutler can stay upright, should continue to be a force the rest of the year. And the defense is one of the best in the league against the run (just 39.7 yards allowed per game on the ground, a 2.1 average) in addition to being in the positive in the most important statistic in the game—turnover ratio (the Bears are +3).

My take: REAL

Fantasy Analysis

Let’s start out with the most fantasy-friendly player on the Bears—Jay Cutler. Obviously, he’s had a great year (870 pass yards, 6 TDs against just 2 INTs and 62 rushing yards to boot). He’s averaging 20 fantasy points a week in standard scoring, and doesn’t figure to slow down anytime soon as long as he’s upright. He’s an every-week starter for sure.

The running backs (Chester Taylor and Matt Forte) are definitely scary. Both are great receiving threats (Forte leads the team with 14 catches and 3 receiving tuddies), but that’s really all the value they’re getting. Three games into the season and the Bears have yet to get a rushing touchdown. The offensive scheme just isn’t committed to the run and even when they do try to rush, the offensive line is so poor that the backs have nowhere to go. Forte should be the only one owned of the two, and though he’s not a terrible option because of his gaudy receiving totals, should be benched until he can prove that he can be a fantasy asset in the running game, too.

The wide receivers are a different story altogether. Earl Bennett is a good option in real life, but simply should not be owned in fantasy. Everybody was all excited about Devin Aromashodu after his strong finish to last year and his 10 targets in Week 1. But where has he been since then? On the bench for the Dallas game and inactive for the Packers game. I’m not quite sure what happened there, but he’s obviously rubbing some important people the wrong way. He shouldn’t be owned at this point, and definitely shouldn’t be a starter until he proves he can be a consistent option.

Devin Hester is a very similar commodity. He’s inconsistent (1 point in Week 1, 13 in Week 2, 7 in Week 3), and his Week 3 total was padded for 6 points from his punt return for a touchdown. I think Hester is worth owning, but he garners too much attention from opposing defenses and is not always on the same page as Cutler, so he will have weeks where he musters up just 1 measly fantasy point. His punt return prowess looks appealing, but after Monday night’s return, teams may again refuse to kick to him, so don’t let that sway you at all.

Johnny Knox is the most consistent of all Bears receivers (3 catches for 52 yards in Week 1, 4 catches for 86 yards, 4 catches for 94 yards) and should be in more starting lineups than his counterparts. He hasn’t scored yet this year, but he isn’t causing controversy or drawing attention from opposing defenses and has a great rapport with Cutler, so he will get his 3-6 catches a game and roughly 70 yards week in and week out. He will eventually score, but probably won’t put up more than 5 touchdowns on the year. He’s a good bye-week, No. 3 WR option.

Greg Olsen was rumored to be an afterthought in the Bears’ offensive scheme for this year, but his numbers (7.3 fantasy points per game, 2 touchdowns) speak for themselves. He will continue to be a factor and should put up similar numbers as last year.

The Bears defense/special teams is probably the best fantasy piece to own behind Cutler. They’re consistent (12, 8, 14 points) and have the ability to score touchdowns, which is always enticing in a fantasy D/ST. Hester’s punt return ability mixed with Danieal Manning and Johnny Knox’s kick return success opens the potential for special team scores while the defense is back to making big plays and forcing turnovers. They have yet to get many sacks, but those will come in time. Peppers won’t be denied much longer.

Prediction for the Rest of the Year

The Bears are going to go 11-5. Seriously.

Their schedule is very favorable the next six weeks, and very well could start 9-0. It’s highly unlikely, but definitely possible. Check out the breakdown below:

Week 4: @NYG (1-2)—Win (Giants are stumbling and turnover-prone)
Week 5: @CAR (0-3)—Win (Carolina’s run game will be shut down by Bears D)
Week 6: SEA (2-1)—Win (but could be close, Seattle is a surprise this year)
Week 7: WAS (1-2)—Win (Even McNabb can’t solve Washington’s problems)
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: @BUF (0-3)—Win (Game is in Toronto, so no home field advantage for NFL’s worst team)
Week 10: MIN (1-2)—Win (Favre is not the same guy and Bears run D should shut AP down)
Week 11: @MIA (2-1)—Loss (MIA is a solid team and a tough road test for Bears)
Week 12: PHI (2-1)—Win (Bears have been OK vs. Vick in past)
Week 13: @DET (0-3)—Loss (Stafford will likely be back and DET is improved this year)
Week 14: NE (2-1)—Loss (Tough home game against a tough team, Brady will pick apart D)
Week 15: @MIN (1-2)—Loss (MIN is a hard place for Bears to play)
Week 16: NYJ (2-1)—Win (Darrelle Revis can’t cover everybody and NYJ pass game not great)
Week 17: @GB (2-1)—Loss (Cold game at Lambeau is too much for CHI to handle)

As you can see, I think the Bears will start nose-diving towards the end of the season, but with a strong start, could very well wind up 11-5. Their schedule is front-loaded with easy opponents (after they’ve gotten past the Packers and Cowboys already), so they should be in a good position come Week 17 at Green Bay. However, I do think GB will also be close to 11-5 the rest of the way, so that final game could very well decide the NFC North.

Three straight wins is a great start for the Bears, but they must maintain their current success in the passing game and turnover departments and continue to improve in other areas as the season wears on if they will in order to be a contender down the stretch.