Fantasy Impact of the Randy Moss to Minnesota deal


October 6, 2010 by Scott Rogers  
Filed under Featured, Football

Randy Moss, a Viking once again, and for a third round pick. I don’t think I could even get Randy Moss for that low of a pick in Madden. Even the game knows better than that.

A few months ago, I wrote a quick response to the fantasy impact that Sidney Rice’s surgery would have. I thought Adrian Peterson would be the major beneficiary of this development (crushed it), Visanthe Shiancoe would become the No. 1 option in the passing game (killed it), but I also thought that Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin would see at least some uptick in their stats (lost it).

So now, the obvious question reads as follows: How will Randy Moss affect the Viking’s fantasy stock (and his own) going forward?

Consider the following:

Brett Favre’s Man-Crush

NEW ORLEANS - SEPTEMBER 09: Quarterback Brett Favre of the Minnesota Vikings reacts as he looks to the VIkings sideline against the New Orleans Saints at Louisiana Superdome on September 9, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

You mean I get to throw to Randy Moss now? Man, the rest of this season is gonna be a cinch.

Brett Favre has been waiting since 1998 to chuck the ball down the field to Randy Moss, so you know he’s going to try to make up for lost time. Seriously, this is going to make Moss’ value explode.  Before this trade went through, I was poised to write an article about the lack of a fantasy impact that Moss has had thus far. That will change.

Favre is going to loft rainbows in his direction all day. Double coverage, triple coverage, the entire defense guarding Moss and only Moss, it doesn’t matter. Favre will throw it to him. The silver lining to all of this is that teams literally cannot afford to really even double cover Moss. I bet you know why too…

The Peterson Factor

Peterson was already having a great season with virtually no threat of a passing game. Now Randy Moss is lining up on the same field with him. I’ve said that Peterson was going to end up as the No. 1 overall RB in fantasy football, but now I’m booking it. That opposing team’s safety can no longer slide his way down into the box. Peterson will no longer see those eight man fronts that he was WINNING against. I still expect the focal of the offense to be Peterson; he’s just far too good. His touches will go down, but I expect his yardage to stay very high. Bigger plays more frequently with fewer punishment a la Arian Foster.

Every time the Vikings make a move like this, it further prolongs Peterson’s career and his fantasy relevancy. Give them credit, most teams get their stud RB and decide to feature him exclusively on offense, not surrounding them with the appropriate talent (Eric Dickerson, OJ Simpson, even Chris Johnson so far). The Vikings have surrounded Peterson with a hall of fame QB and WR now, two other very promising young WRs who rank talent wise at the top of their position (Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin), and a very dependable TE. Essentially, the Vikings are limiting the carries that Peterson gets by allowing their offense to flow through other talented offensive players at times. They are adding years to his career and ensuring that he’ll be a Top 10 fantasy draft pick for years to come.

Fantasy Prediction

I’ve already made my feelings about Peterson perfectly clear, but have yet to address the rest of the Vikings offense. So here we go, in handy dandy alphabetical order.

Bernard Berrian–When I first saw that the trade went through for Moss, I assumed that Berrian was a part of the deal. I thought that the Patriots would like to get SOMETHING in return for Moss, perhaps a player like Berrian that could possibly help them this year (lots of theoreticals in that sentence). I guess the Patriots didn’t want to eat his overpriced contract, though, and honestly he probably wouldn’t contribute much to the offense. Berrian will stay the No. 2 WR on the Vikings WR until Rice returns, at which point he’ll drop to 4th–or possibly even 5th–on the depth chart (seriously, at least Greg Camarillo can catch). If you haven’t dropped Berrian yet, then do so now.

Brett Favre–The Vikings have been saying for weeks now that it will take time for Favre to develop chemistry with his receivers. That is true, or at least it was BR (Before Randy). You don’t need to develop chemistry with a WR like Randy Moss (of which he is the only one by the way); you just toss it up to him. Favre will rebound from this poor start. He’ll still throw INTs, but expect the TDs to starting piling up. He may not crack the 30 TD barrier, but 28 or so through the final 13 games is nothing to sneeze at.

Percy Harvin–Other than Peterson and Favre, Harvin might be the next best to benefit from Moss. For the past three weeks, Harvin has had to line up as the flanker WR, ostensibly the No. 2 WR in the offense. Now he can slide back into the slot, a place that comes more naturally to him anyway. With Harvin getting back in football shape and his migraine problems seemingly at least somewhat cured, expect him to get back to improving upon his rookie stats. 1,000 yards and 7 or so TDs is not out of the question.

Sidney Rice–Honestly, I don’t know what to make of Rice. The feeling is sinking in around the Vikings that Rice may not play at all this year. Even if he does return, he will have missed half a years worth of practices. Rice will simply not be in football shape. If you thought you were being clever by holding a spot for Rice on your bench, well I’m sad to report that you probably didn’t think that through very well. Drop him and grab a player that can help your team TODAY. Rice may do well IF he even returns, but why gamble on it?

Visanthe Shiancoe–Not much to see here, Shiancoe is going to continue to beast. In a Brett Favre-led offense, there’s always a spot for a TE, BR or AR (after Randy).

So there you have it, the Vikings just substantially increased their offensive firepower and basically all their player’s fantasy values.

An extra little tid-bit for Moss owners: he has now avoided a bye week this season (as long as you don’t count last weeks 0 catch performance as a bye). He still couldn’t avoid a rematch with the Revis Island though as he plays him this week. But hey, it’s one less roster spot to worry about.

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