So, prior to the 2010 MLB, season, I compiled a list of 15 guarantees that I was sure would happen by year’s end. Mind you, these were not for the faint of heart, as I’m sure you know by now after reading my Top 25 Fantasy Football Guarantees. Things like “Albert Pujols will hit 30 homers” and “Roy Halladay will be one of the top pitchers in both fantasy and real life” did not make the cut.

No, this was more of a “going out on a limb” column. And while I was out on that limb, things were not good, like I was caught in the middle of a random windstorm: shaky, shaky.

However, not all my picks bombed. Some did, definitely. But others were as spot on as you could get considering the extreme nature of the out-of-left-field predictions.

Let’s see how I fared (note: 1 point awarded for complete accuracy, 0 points for being close, and -1 point for being completely wrong):

1.    Justin Upton will be the Top Fantasy OF. (-1)

Alright, so I was off here. I mean, just a little. But you get where I was coming from with this prediction, right? He steadily improved in his first two full seasons, but yet regressed in every single category (except for walks, but seriously, who cares about that?). I predicted Upton would hit 35 bombs (he hit half that—17), play roughly 150 games (he played 133), hit between .290 and .320 (he hit .273) and reach triple digits in runs and RBIs (73 and 69, respectively), so like, I wasn’t even close. Sorry guys. I mean, shoot. Upton, you’re on my $h*t list right now. I’m hoping for a comeback next year so I can be like Steve Buscemi and put lipstick on while crossing your name off my list. Or, I’ll just do something normal like whatever it is that sane people do when they take people off their $h*t list.

2.    Howie Kendrick will hit .320. (-1)

He hit .279. So, yeah, I wasn’t close with this, either. Kendrick has never hit lower than .291 in a season in which he got more than 300 at-bats, so it’s safe to say I did not see this coming. Part of the problem with Kendrick has been his inability to stay healthy, but he was able to play in 158 games and rack up over 600 at-bats, so at least I was right when I said this was the year he stays healthy. Kendrick had almost twice as many at-bats in ’10 as he had in 2009, yet barely put up better numbers, so I’m just going to chalk it up to a poor year all around. But, I am concerned. The Angels’ 2B may never earn up to his billing as a top fantasy option, but he’s not a bad buy-low choice for next year.

3.    Chris Young (OF, ARI) will join the 30-30 club. (+1)

I’m going to give myself a plus one on this. 27 homers and 28 SBs is pretty damn close. So…whattttup. First one right! One outta three ain’t bad. Acutally, it is, so I apologize. Young is a great talent with an enticing blend of power and speed and just had his career year. His average will never be great—or even good—but near 30 homers and 30 steals each year is just fine by me, especially with 75 walks, and 90+ runs and RBIs.

4.    Carlos Zambrano will win 20 games this year for the Cubs. (-1)

This one hurt more than just my pride. As a devout Cubs fan (I know, sucks right?), I really expected the Cubs to be a top team in 2010. And I expected Big Z to be a big component of their success—as the leader of the pitching staff. Obviously, that didn’t happen. But, Zambrano did go 8-0 after regaining his starting spot in the middle of August. If he only pitched like that all season, 20 wins would have been no problem. But, you never know what you’re going to get with Big Z. He’s like a box of chocolates (you know, like in Forrest Gump?). So, I honestly don’t know what to tell you about next year on him. But, it’s worth a late-round pick to find out.

5.    Joe Mauer will not be the Top Fantasy Catcher. (0)

This is a tough one. I mean, talk about a down year for catchers. 2010 was just brutal. Mauer, owner of a 28 HR, 96 RBI campaign in ’09, followed that up with just 9 HR and 75 RBIs in roughly the same number of at-bats. His slugging percentage went down over 100 points (from .587 to .469). So, how valuable was he? I mean, he did hit .327, which helps, but Victor Martinez and his 20 HR was arguably more helpful in your fantasy league, regardless of format. And, considering Buster Posey joined the party halfway through the season and put up great numbers across the board, he would probably even be a better option than Mauer in fantasy leagues. So, I was kinda right, but also kinda wrong. But, either way, my prediction that Mauer’s 28 homers was an aberration is spot on.

6.    Francisco Liriano will be a Top 20 Fantasy Pitcher. (+1)

According to ESPN’s Player Rater, Liriano came in as the 32nd best starting pitcher in the 2010 season, but I’m not so sure he shouldn’t be higher. The same format had Tim Lincecum as the 21st best pitcher, another rating I don’t agree with. I mean, let’s all just agree that Liriano is worthy of a Top 20 spot in most league formats. Fair enough? I mean, 200+ Ks, 14 wins, a 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 191.2 innings is just great. It was his best season yet and was a definite improvement over last year. So, I’m giving myself a point on this one. You all who owned Liriano all year, you feel me. For those others—deal with it.

7.    Dice-K will be a Top 20 Fantasy Pitcher. (-1)

I did throw in a stipulation in the preseason that Matsuzaka would have to keep his walks down and be able to pitch deeper into games, but I’m not even going to count that. I don’t know what I was thinking here. I’m embarrassed. My B.

8.    John Lackey will win 18 games. (-1)

He won 14. I was kinda close. In my defense, the Red Sox’s allegedly “jacked” lineup (as I called them in March, never really took flight due to a slew of injuries to Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others. But, in everybody else’s defense, Lackey was pretty terrible. He had a 4.40 ERA and a 1.42, both easily his highest totals in the past six seasons. Obviously pitching in the AL East doesn’t agree with him. Either that or he just wanted to prove me wrong. It’s probably not that. I mean, even I’m not that egocentric. Or am I?…….

9.    Jon Lester will be a Top 5 Fantasy Pitcher. (+1)

Depending on your league format, I was actually right on something regarding the Red Sox (though it will be short-lived. Read on…) Lester’s 19 wins coupled with his 225 Ks were welcomed with open arms by his fantasy owners. His 3.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP aren’t that great and likely knock him out of the Top 5 in your league, but he was still pretty damn good. So I’m counting it. It was the best year of his young and illustrious career.

10.    I think the Boston Red Sox will be a heck of a team in 2010. (-1)

They weren’t. I also said the Red Sox will win 100 games. They didn’t. I told you to scoop up as many Bostonians as you could. That would have been dumb. Mostly because they all got injured. So, sorry guys and gals. But, just think about how good they SHOULD have been, ya know? Then you’ll see where I’m coming from. Hey, nobody outside of Nostradamus can predict injuries.

11.    Chien-Ming Wang will win 15 games this year. (-1)

Sighhhhh. He never pitched in ’10. Do I get a mulligan here? No? Alright, that makes sense. Sigh.

12.    Joe Nathan will not pitch in 2010. (0)

Dude, I don’t know. But, he didn’t pitch, so I was technically right, even though this was knowledge made public to us all in March. But, as I said before, try to prove it wasn’t already on my list prior to his injury.

13.    Shin-Soo Choo will be a Top 10 OF. (+1)

Naileddddd ittttt. Even as Choo missed 18 games to injury. I love this guy. His return helped me nab second place in my big money league, and he turned out to be a steal in the fifth round of my draft. Choo contributes in every single category and no matter your league format, Choo will be a Top 10 OF for years to come (the exact phrase I used in March, so yeah…). Just imagine what he’d do with a little lineup support (Carlos Santana, rock superstar catcher, and Grady Sizemore, Cleveland’s most eligible outfielder, are going to be back next year) and without a trip to the DL.

14.    Ben Zobrist will be drafted two round too high. (+1)

Not sure what round he was drafted in your league, but I guarantee Zeus went at least two rounds too high based on the value he put up in 2010. It’s not that Zobrist was bad and eligibility at three different positions (including second base and the surprisingly shallow outfield spot) is always a plus, but .238, 77, 10, 75, 24 isn’t exactly worthy of a Top 10 draft pick. Heck, it’s not even worthy of a pick in the Top 10 rounds. Temper your expectations with Zeus. He’ll rebound next year (Joe Maddon would do better by just keeping Z in one position regularly), but his 2009 season may be more of a mirage. Expect somewhere in between ’09 and ’10.

15.    Billy Butler will be a Top 5 first baseman. (-1)

He wasn’t. Oops. Billy took a step back across the board in fantasy categories (except average, of course), so that sucks. Keep in mind that he is just 24 and plays for a poor team with a poor offense where he’s really the only threat. Think Ryan Zimmerman a few years ago. But, a closer look at Butler’s peripherals show that he could be on the verge of breaking out. I was just likely a year too early on his breakout date. In approximately the same number of plate appearances, Billy B. increased his walks by 11 while cutting his strikeouts by 25. His low RBI output (78) is a result of a weak supporting cast (see Sabermetricians, I can get aboard the train and recognize that RBIs are a team stat), but the drop in power (13 less extra-base hits in ’10 compared to ‘09) is a little worrisome. He probably just became too patient at the plate. Part of the growing process. Be patient with him. He will be a Top 5 first baseman before it’s all said and done. Likely next year.

So, ultimately, I finished with a -4. Not so good, no. But, I was pretty dang close on some of these and if I didn’t throw all my eggs in the Bostonian basket, I would have been even closer when it was all said and done.

Oh well, live and let learn. Next year will be better. As always, don’t take these to heart word-for-word. It’s not the prediction that matters, it’s the rationale behind them. The predictions are just for fun. Though, if you did take these at face value, I would probably be face-down in a gutter somewhere. So, thanks for not doing that…