Fantasy Baseball Risers – Pitching Edition

It’s been a slow offseason, as few of the marquee free agents have signed a lucrative contract. But in the world of fantasy baseball, there have been some game changing developments. In today’s edition of Fantasy Risers – we’re going to focus on 2 pitchers who could make or break your season.

Neftali Feliz – The Rangers closer took a step back this season, but he’s been an outstanding closer for the Rangers. With the signing of Joe Nathan, the Rangers have the luxury of finally moving Feliz into the rotation. Feliz averages 96 MPH on his devastating fastball, using it nearly 80% of the time. And as a closer, he can get away with that, only needing to pitch for one inning. In relief he’s relied on his fastball and his curveball, throwing his change up on rare occasions. That’s going to have to change next year if Feliz is to succeed. A starter needs to be able to throw at least three pitches, since they face a lineup multiple times in a game. So pitchers have to be able to switch it up, otherwise they’ll get knocked around. One good pitch doesn’t cut it – just ask AJ Burnett. When his curve is on he can be a devastating opponent, but when the curve isn’t working he’s throwing batting practice.

Interestingly enough, Feliz has dominated left handed hitters over his career (2.80 FIP) and struggled a bit with right handed hitters (3.46 FIP). You’d expect an opposite coming from a right handed pitcher. It will be worth keeping an eye on to see if those splits change as he moves into the rotation, as he’ll be exposed to more left handed batters.

While Feliz has never started a game in the majors, he did have 54 starts in the minors. He performed like he did in the majors – striking out a ton of batters (10K/9 in his full seasons as a starter) while showing his trademark lack of control (3.9BB/9 career in the minors). Considering his best strikeout rate in a full season of relief was 9.22, it’s more likely as a starter he’ll settle in around 8K/9. Still a very impressive number, don’t get me wrong. But we have to account for the velocity drop as a starter, because there’s no way he can maintain 96+ MPH for 6-7 innings. It’s likely he’ll settle in around 93-94, which is above average for a starter.

The walks will continue to be a concern, as Feliz has never shown much in the way of control. Which wouldn’t be a huge issue if Feliz could keep the ball on the ground, giving him a better chance of forcing hitters into a double play. With a career groundball (GB) rate of 37%, Feliz is considered a flyball pitcher, so the walks will hurt him a bit more. And thanks to his home park being so hitter friendly, it’s likely we’ll see hitters turn those flyballs into homers.

Put it all together, and the best comparison might be another pitcher who has been flip-flopped between starting and relief pitching  - Brandon Morrow. Both are hard throwing right handed pitchers with control issues and flyball tendencies. The only question for Feliz, is how many innings he’s going to throw. Typically young pitchers are on innings limits, but the Rangers have been very aggressive by allowing relievers such as Ogando or Wilson to throw 200 innings without building up to it like other teams would do. So if they feel Feliz is capable of throwing 200, this is the team to let him do it. So instead of predicting fantasy results, I’ll predict his ratios:

K/9: 8

BB/9: 4

W – 13

WHIP – 1.35

Chris Sale: The former 13th overall pick is one of the fastest risers in his draft class. The southpaw had an electric debut the same season he was drafted, posting a 1.93 ERA (2.74 FIP) in 23 innings. He’s posted even higher strikeout rates than Feliz (11.19 vs 9.13 for their career) , so it’s clear Sale has good stuff. His control is still a work in progress (3.53 BB/9), but unlike Feliz he eliminates some of those problems with his outstanding 50% career GB rate. That last part is a big key to his success in Chicago, as his home park is extremely home run friendly.

With Mark Buehrle potentially leaving via free agency, Sale is likely being groomed as his replacement. So what can we expect from the southpaw?

Like Feliz, Sale throws in the mid 90′s as a reliever, and can expect to throw around 92-93 as a starter. The advantage that Sale has is that he’s already shown the ability to use multiple pitches effectively. Sale throws a slider (36.2%), and a change up (12%) in addition to his fastball. The slider is his go to pitch, and it’s one of the best sliders in the game. It’s one of the reasons why he’s been significantly more effective vs left handed hitters (2.10 FIP) compared to right handed hitters (3.73).

It’s that last part that will be key to Sale’s success. In the past the White Sox had the luxury of choosing who Sale could face, such as when multiple or tough left handed batters were up. As a starter, he’ll be facing a lot more right handed hitters, so the continued development of his change will be key.

The most innings Sale has thrown at any level is 71, so it’s unlikely the White Sox will push him to 200 off the bat. I can’t see the White Sox letting Sale throw more than 150 innings, so I’d say that’s his ceiling for next season. Like Feliz, Sale will be a good value in the later rounds as he’ll give you wins, strikeouts, and keep the ERA down. Prediction (based on 150 innings)

145 K

62 BB

12 W

1.29 WHIP

 

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