Fantasy Baseball – Rebounds and Breakouts

Published: 18^th Jan 12 1:46 pm

by Mark Hock
Mark

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Fantasy Baseball – Rebounds and Breakouts

Jerry Lai - US Presswire

What separates a good fantasy player from a great one is the willingness to take on a risk. The risk could come in the form of a prospect, an untested rookie with tremendous upside. Or it could be the willingness to stream a pitcher, knowing that while the results could be rewarding, there’s also the chance that it could be disastrous. Today we’re going to look at risk in the form of players coming off down years. These players have performed well in the past, but for any number of reasons struggled in 2011 and won’t be valued that highly in 2012.

OF Shin-Soo Choo – For more than 2 years, Choo was the poster child for the 5 tool fantasy player. Between 2009 and 2010 he had a 300 average, 42 homers, 176 runs driven in, 43 steals and 168 runs. While Choo wasn’t elite at any one thing, his ability to perform well in each category made him a top outfielder. Struggling both on and off the field, Choo had a forgettable 2011, hitting 259 with 8 homers in 85 games.

But with a season to recover, Choo should be back to his dominating ways. Heading into 2011 Choo would have been a fair value in the third round. Now there’s a chance you can draft him several rounds later, and reap the rewards of one of the top outfielders in the game.

Prediction: 300 BA, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 85 runs, 18 SB

SP Edison Volquez – He hasn’t been relevant for fantasy purposes since his breakout 2008 season, but there’s finally hope for Volquez. The flamethrowing right hander was traded to the San Diego Padres, meaning that he’ll move to a park that won’t give up a home run every time a flyball is hit to the outfield. He’s a few years removed from Tommy John surgery, so his control should be somewhat improved. If he can get his walk rate under 4.5BB/9 – no easy task – then he would be capable of putting up #2 starter type numbers. He’s worth a late round gamble, and it’s one that could pay off in a big way.

I’ll admit that I’m not a fan of Volquez, which is why I’m sticking with the prediction I made for him at the time of the Latos trade. However, the upside is there and in a discussion about players who have breakout potential he simply cannot be ignored.

Fantasy Prediction – 6 wins, 105 strikeouts, 5.25 ERA, 1.55 WHIP.

C Geovany Soto – He’s quite the enigma, posting elite numbers for a catcher one year and below average in the next. However, Soto is the rare catcher who is capable of contributing in average, HR’s, and RBI. The former rookie of the year should easily match his 2011 totals of 228/17/54, and as one of the key hitters in the Cubs lineup he would have a chance to drive in a ton of runs batting in the middle of the lineup.

Prediction: 275 BA, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 55 runs 0 SB

Casey McGehee – He struggled in 2011 and was shipped out to the Pirates. With 3B one of the weakest fantasy positions, McGehee could provide extraordinary value in the later rounds. In 2009-2010 his production would have averaged a 291 BA, 24 HR, 101 RBI and 76 runs over 162 games. While I wouldn’t expect that from McGehee next season, those kind of numbers would put him in the top 5 fopr 3B. So the upside is there to be a very valuable hitter at a shallow position, and you wouldn’t have to waste a high draft pick on it.

Prediction: 280 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 60 runs, 0 SB

CL Joe Nathan – He might be the biggest risk in this group. Nathan is a flyball pitcher heading to Texas, which is never a good combination. His strikeout rate is no longer what it was during his time with the Minnesota Twins, and he’s coming off his worst season since 2000. Nathan’s not young either, and at 37 he may not have much left in the tank. However, Nathan might have performed better than his ERA reflected, as his 4.28 FIP was much better than his 4.84 ERA. He was significantly better as the season went on, posting a 3.91 ERA after the all star break.

With Mike Adams setting up, Nathan won’t have a long leash. But if you wait out the closer run, you can always grab Nathan a few rounds later and might end up with a bargain.

Prediction – 3.80 ERA, 3 wins, 25 saves, 1.20 WHIP

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