First things first, who’s on first!
First base is the deepest position by far. Come draft day, it doesn’t make since to waste a high draft pick on an all-star first baseman. The league average for the position is .263 AVG, 21 HR, 69 runs, 80 RBI, 4 SB. So, instead of selecting a first baseman early, wait, and fill other positions such has 2B, SS, and 3B. Those position thin out much quicker. There are plenty of options that can be found later in the draft that can produce quality counting stats.
Paul Goldschmidt ADP 147.53
The power hitting prospect for the D-Backs showed up in August and did not disappoint. Goldschmidt hit 38 HR, 120 RBI and 112 Runs across AA/MLB in 2011. He has posted great walk rates throughout his minor league career also (17.9% in 2011 AA). He should be the opening day 1B for the Snakes come April. Come on, bringing in Lyle Overbay to push him is like feeding a Pinky to your pet Python. Won’t last long and everyone is just happy when it’s over. Look for 30 plus HR and around 100 RBI/100 Runs with a hand full of stolen bases in 2012.
Brandon Belt ADP 206.32
Well, the Giants really screwed the pooch with their young prospect last year. 2011 resulted in an up and down year for Belt. No literally, he was called up and sent down 3 times in 2011. Once he was up for good, he had a playing time battle with Aubrey Huff. In 187 AB’s last year, Belt hit 9 HR with 18 RBI, 21 Runs, and 3 stolen bases. If the playing time issues subside and the Giants stick with a plan of LF duty with a couple of starts per week at 1B on Huffs off days, Belt’s value should soar in 2012. With a minor league career walk rate of 17.7% he should get on base plenty even if he’s not hitting for a high average. Look for healthy OBP, 20-25 HR, 80 Runs, and 75 RBI with double digit steals 2012.
Yonder Alonso ADP 229.71
Alonso was the center piece in the Matt Latos trade and allowed the Padres to send fellow prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs in exchange for more pieces. Yonder has the bat to succeed at the MLB level, but the defense is suspect, good thing this is fantasy. While PETCO is likely to suppress some of his offensive production, Alonso does show power to all fields and he should maintain a solid line. With a career minor league ISO rate of .152 and a walk rate of 13.1%, he should be a lock for 16-22 HR with a solid OBP. His counting stats will be lower than the other two mentioned in this post, but he should at least put up league average counting stats of 80 RBI and 69Runs.
There is plenty of depth at the first base position. Don’t get in the mindset that you need to draft a top 10 first baseman. Some other honorable mentions are: Justin Smoak ADP (220.22), Kendrys Morales (ADP 220.07), and Ike Davis (ADP 176.96) coming off last year’s injury. Each should offer league average production at the least.
Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman
All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com
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