Top Ten Values in the Outfield (6-10)
If you happen to go in another direction other than OF with your first couple sections, Have no fear. There are plenty of value plays with huge upside potential lurking deep in the draft. For the sake of this piece we will define value as outperforming their ADP. Here are numbers 6-10, check back tomorrow for 1-5.
Jayson Werth ADP 99.95
Werth saw his 2011 season get off to a horrible start. He hit .220 through the first 3 months of the season and finished with a .232/.330/.389 line in 2011. The decline in batting average was the result off a .286 BABIP; the lowest Werth has ever posted in his career. Look for a bounce back closer to his career average BABIP of .324, resulting in a higher BA. Werth also saw a drop in his ISO rating during 2011 as fell to .157. Look for a power surge in 2012 as his ISO should come closer to his career ISO rating of .200. Werth should be in line for 20HR/20SB season with .260-.280 average and a healthy OBP.
Jason Heyward ADP 107.61
The young Braves star dealt with a bevy of issues in 2011. Injuries, questions of work ethic, and a late season playing time battle with Jose Constanza. Well, forget about 2011, it’s 2012 and I believe the stage is set for a break out year for Heyward. For a complete breakdown of Jason Heyward’s 2012 value, read the article I wrote earlier this year: Jason Heyward’s value in 2012.
Chris Young ADP 124.96
You are never going to get a high batting average from the smooth fielding CF. The knock on Young is his strike out rate, 21.1% in 2011 for a total of 139 K’s. However, let’s turn the focus on what he does well. His career walk rate is 10% (12.1% in 2011), he’s averaged 23 HR/20 SB during his five year career (excluding the 30 games cup of coffee in 2006). His career high in HR came back in 2007 with 32, couple that with his career high of 28 SB in 2010 and we definitely have the potential for a 30HR/30SB if Young puts in all together for 2012 season. If you are not turned off by a .240 BA, then at the least, you can expect a 20HR/20SB season with 30HR/30SB for the upside.
Peter Bourjos 135.31
The speedy CF for the Halo’s really caught on fire late in the season. During August, September and October, Bourjos hit 9 HR, 34 Runs, with 22 RBI to go along with 8 SB. He finished the season with a .271/.327/.438 line to go with 12 HR, 72 Runs, and 43 RBI with 22 SB. Bourjos has got speed for days and there is even some pop in his bat (.155 ISO minor league career). The main knock on Bourjos his inability to take a walk, last year he only walked 5.8% of the time (career rate of 5.1%). Despite the low walk rate, you can expect double digit home runs with 30 plus steals from the speedy CF in 2012.
Logan Morrison 148.63
With the addition of Jose Reyes to the Marlins lineup, both LOMO and Mike Stanton should be in line for improved RBI totals. Morrison’s .247 BA should be due for a slight rebound to the .260-.270 range as it was depressed by a .265 BABIP in 2011. Despite the low average in 2011, Morrison showed great plate discipline by walking 10.3% last year leading to a .330 OBP. Last year he hit 23 HR with an ISO of .221, so it seems that LOMO’s power is developing faster than the Marlins had hoped. Look for an increase in home run totals and RBI production from Morrison in 2012. I’m thinking 24-28 HR with 90-100 RBI for this year.
Remember check back tomorrow for 1-5.
Aaron Price, follow me on twitter @baseballrantman
All ADP information from mockdraftcentral.com
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