Fantasy Baseball – The Value Of Average Draft Position

Published: 9^th Feb 12 2:28 pm

by Mark Hock
Mark

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Fantasy Baseball – The Value Of Average Draft Position

Howard Smith - US Presswire

One of the best ways to be prepared for your fantasy draft is to take part in a mock draft. Here, you get an opportunity to test out your lists and see how other people value their players. Even though Matt Kemp didn’t win the NL MVP award, his value has never been higher, as Mock Draft Central currently has his average draft position (ADP) at 1.74. Surprised? I know I was, having ranked Kemp at the back end of the top 10 hitters in the league. So I thought it would be interesting to look at the ADP list, and see where we can find some bargains.

3B Ryan Zimmerman (ADP = 41.51) – If Zimmerman is still available at this point, you have to grab him. Between 09-11 he’s 4th among third basemen in home runs (70), runs (247), 8th in RBI (240), and tied for 3rd in batting average (296). He’d be a much better option than David Wright (ADP = 32.93) or Mark Teixeira (ADAP = 27.09), both of whom were taken long before Zimmerman.

SS Elvis Andrus (ADP =45.15) – He’s a solid player on a team that’s been to the World Series in each of the past two years. Andrus leads all shortstops between 2009-2011 with 102 steals. If you’re looking for a good source of steals, he’s a fantastic option. But as the 45th overall pick in a draft? That’s just a waste of an important pick. During the 3 year period Andrus had 11 homers, 256 runs and 135 RBI to go along with a 271 BA. Solid numbers for a guy with speed, sure. But he’s going several rounds too early, and just not worth a potential 4th round pick.

3B Pablo Sandoval (ADP = 69.03) – On the other hand, we’ve got ourselves a potential bargain in Sandoval. He’s put up numbers that have rivalled Zimmerman over the past 3 years, and he’s being picked a round and a half after him. Not only that, but Sandoval’s value in fantasy is higher because he hits for a better average, and as a free swinger is likely to drive in more runs. Here’s another guy who could and should be drafted much earlier.

OF Michael Cuddyer (ADP = 94.85) – Normally hitters moving to Coors are a good investment, but not this time. Cuddyer is coming off a solid season, where he hit 20 homers and drove in 70 runs. But he’s not going to do much better than that, and I’d rather gamble on a high upside prospect over Cuddyer at this point. Matt Moore has an ADP of 100.95, and I’d much rather gamble on him than take the 20 homers Cuddyer will give me.

SP Ubaldo Jimenez (ADP = 155.23) – I get that he’s coming off a down year, but as of 2010 Jimenez was one of the best starting pitchers in the game. The drop in velocity is an obvious concern, but if he can rebound you’ll get second or third round production from a guy who’s routinely picked in the 13th round. You could go as high as 100 on Jimenez and end up with one of the best starters in the game. Obviously there’s some risk involved, but as an 8th or 9th round pick you could do a lot worse. To put it in perspective, Jimenez is being drafted around the same spot as Coco Crisp (ADP = 156.51) and Adam Lind (ADP = 151.70). Jimenez is significantly better than either of these players, and waiting this long on Jimenez is foolish.

SP Jaime Garcia (ADP =178.59) – He struggled in the post season, but he’s been one of the St. Louis Cardinals most effective pitchers during the regular season. He’s got a great strikeout rate (7.12K/9 for his career), keeps the ball on the ground (54.9% career GB) and limits the base runners. This leads to success in wins, strikeouts, WHIP and ERA (3.27 career). And he’s being picked close to the 15th round? He’ll provide much better value than any other guy in the 15th round, and likely should be closer to pick 125-130.

SP Brandon McCarthy (ADP = 204.51) – If you’re judging him by his career, then this isn’t a bad spot for him. But McCarthy was a completely different pitcher last season, showing pinpoint control (1.32 BB/9) and an improved groundball rate (46.7%) leading to the best year of his career. He should produce quality numbers across the board, making him worthy of a top 150 pick.

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