Fantasy Baseball – Anatomy Of A Draft: Part 2
In part one of our series, the focus was on rounds 1-5 of a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball public league draft. The first few rounds are fairly straight forward, and a lot of the picks aren’t remotely shocking. However it’s in these rounds that fantasy teams really start to separate themselves from the pack, and a poor pick can really set your team back.
So with that in mind, let’s continue with round 6:
- Michael Bourn
- David Price
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Cain
- Jon Lester
- Michael Morse
- Yovani Gallardo
- Shin-Soo Choo
- Jimmy Rollins
- Chase Utley
- Ricky Romero
- James Shields
Comments: An interesting assortment of players were taken here. The 6th round is generally where we see another run of pitchers, as the elite bats are off the table. Bourn and Rollins are a nice source of speed, and a healthy Utley is a fantastic option at second base. Choo is a nice upside pick, and if he’s healthy he should be an elite fantasy outfielder thanks to his ability to score points across the board.
I like to gamble in fantasy baseball, so I went with Yu Darvish. His Average Draft Position (ADP) was 122.45, so you could argue I went a little early with him. Still, most of the projections are fairly high for him and if he comes anywhere close to meeting them he’ll be the best pitcher picked in this round.
Best Pick: Shin-Soo Choo. Bourn has the higher ADP (55.33 vs 62.74) but I think Choo’s upside makes him more valuable.
Worst Pick: Ricky Romero. Mostly because his ERA should rise significantly cutting down on his value. Darvish is the worst pick by ADP, but I’d rather gamble on his ceiling rather than lose him by waiting a round or two.
Round 7:
- Buster Posey
- BJ Upton
- Eric Hosmer
- Ryan Howard
- Michael Cuddyer
- Shane Victorino
- Ian Kennedy
- Matt Moore
- Howie Kendrick
- Lance Berkman
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Jonathan Papelbon
Comments: I was hoping to get Moore in this round, but he went two picks before mine. I’m not a huge fan of Michael Cuddyer, even though he should get a nice boost from playing regularly in Coors Field. Victorino is an underrated outfielder, so that was a nice pick as well. Again, it’s still too early to go for closers, and while Papelbon is a good one the 7th round should be about starters or hitters.
After missing out on Moore I realized that outfield was looking fairly thin in terms of power, so I went with Berkman. He struggled in 2010, but his strong 2011 season has me convinced there’s more in the tank.
Best picks: Buster Posey and Shane Victorino. Posey is a fantastic option at catcher who is dropping because he missed time, but with an ADP of 59.2 he’s a steal in the 7th round.
Worst pick: Ryan Howard. Declining offence, likely to miss a few months, and has an ADP of 154.99. Could have picked him much later.
Round 8:
- CJ Wilson
- Mariano Rivera
- Madison Bumgarner
- Aramis Ramirez
- Michael Pineda
- Drew Storen
- John Axford
- Jason Heyward
- Rickie Weeks
- Joe Mauer
- Brian Wilson
- Carl Crawford
Comments: The closer run has begun, and it’s no surprise that Rivera leads the way. While Mauer is a good value here, I just don’t have faith that he’ll stay healthy. Heyward is a nice upside play, as he’s still a fantastic hitter despite a rough 2011. Crawford could be a steal at this point, but he needs to get off to a quick start to help forget about last year. Ramirez should be primed for a big year, and given the lack of quality third basemen that’s a nice pick up as well.
One of the reasons I avoid going for starters in the early rounds is because there are always bargains to be found later. Bumgarner is no exception, and he does everything I like in a pitcher. He strikes out a lot of hitters, keeps the ball on the ground, posts strong ERA and pitches in a pitchers park.
Best picks: Madison Bumgarner and Jason Heyward.
Worst pick: Joe Mauer.
Round 9:
- Mat Latos
- Adam Jones
- Ichiro Suzuki
- Brett Gardner
- Daniel Hudson
- Matt Wieters
- Dee Gordon
- Drew Stubbs
- Corey Hart
- Adam Wainwright
- Tommy Hanson
- Alex Avila
Comments: Looks like round 9 was an attempt to get steals, as Ichiro, Gardner, Stubbs and Gordon were all taken here. Ichiro is coming off a rough year so it’s tough to know what to expect from him. I’ve never been a fan of Jones but this isn’t a bad spot to pick him. Hopefully the concussion issues don’t knock Hanson out for too long because he is an outstanding pitcher.
Best pick: Adam Wainwright. He’s coming off TJ surgery, but I drafted him because the previous two years he was one of the top pitchers in baseball. If he comes anywhere close to that he’ll provide first or second round production from the 10th round, simply a value too large to ignore.
Worst pick: Dee Gordon. He was able to post a 300 BA and steal a ton of bases, but since he doesn’t walk and won’t have a high OBP, he won’t be on base often enough to take advantage of his speed. Considering his ADP is 145.84, he could have been picked much later in the draft. Given his strikeout to walk rate, it’s unlikely he’ll maintain a 300 average unless he improves in this regard.
Round 10:
- Jose Valverde
- Carlos Beltran
- Joel Hanrahan
- Matt Garza
- Miguel Montero
- JJ Putz
- Josh Johnson
- Gio Gonzalez
- Ryan Madson
- Derek Jeter
- Brandon Morrow
- Josh Beckett
Comments: Beckett is a nice pickup, although with his pattern of alternating good and bad years this might not be the year to bet on him. Jeter’s not a top shortstop anymore, but in the 10th round he’s a nice pickup. Lots of good picks during this round. Beltran is still a strong hitter even if the SB are gone.
A few more closers were drafted, and I went with Hanrahan since he strikes out nearly a batter an inning. The low scoring Pirates will need a closer more often than most teams even if they don’t reach 500.
Best pick: Josh Johnson. Same deal as Wainwright, an elite pitcher coming off an injury riddled season. The only concern with Johnson is he’s more injury prone, so he’s a much bigger risk.
Worst pick: Brandon Morrow. He gives you strikeouts, but he’s just struggled for several years now and isn’t a top of the rotation arm. His ADP of 183.41 is brutal in the 10th round, going nearly 60 picks earlier than he should have.
As part two comes to a close, I feel my team picked up some high upside pitchers with strong strikeout potential to balance out the hitters I took in the first 5 rounds. I ended up being right about the outfielders, as the power hitting outfielders were no longer available and have been replaced by stolen base threats.
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