Last week, I discussed the top ten running backs for the 2012 fantasy football season. If you missed my first segment on the elite backs, I suggest you read it here: 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top Ten Running Backs
Now we move onto what would be considered your RB2 and RB3′s. Most elite backs are gone by Round 2 depending on the size of your league. That however, does not mean this core of backs doesn’t hold value, because they indeed do.
Last year marked the third straight season that the running back position tied its own record with 10 of the Top 24 scoring coming from the sixth-round or later. Another record was set a year ago as 12 of the Top 24 point scorers at the running back position were not among the first 24 running backs drafted.
In today’s NFL, not every team has just one stud running back. Teams like the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, and the Washington Redskins use two and three backs in their offensive schemes. This is why fantasy football players are finding running backs in the mid-to-late rounds that are producing at a high rate.
In fact, forty-four carriers hit the 80-point mark in 2011. That’s almost double the amount of runners who accomplished this fantasy feat a decade ago . This is why it is always a good idea to load up on as many runners as possible in the middle rounds of your drafts. You will find players who can contribute every single week and there is a great chance that one or two of them will sneak into the Top 24 when it is all said and done.
Enough of the numbers, here are my 2012 fantasy football rankings and projections for running backs #11-25 . As always, good luck.
= upside 
= injury risk
11.) DeMarco Murray – Dallas Cowboys
Some “experts” have DeMarco as a top ten running back this season. While his rookie season certainly showed flashes of potential, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He only has seven career starts, and two total touchdowns. He also comes with a risk of injury, as he broke his ankle in Week 14, and was battered by injuries during his college career at the University of Oklahoma.
DeMarco is one fast cat though, and can rack up yards in a hurry. From Week 7-10 last season, Murray exploded for 601 yards and scored two touchdowns, one which was a 91-yard scamper in the 1st quarter against the St. Louis Rams. Felix Jones has faded, and Murray has solidified his status, as the primary back in Dallas. His current ADP is 21.7, and he is certainly starter material. The injury risk is very real and very scary though, so don’t go over your head when drafting him.
12.) Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams
Don’t you sort of feel bad for Steven Jackson? The St. Louis Rams offensive line is atrocious. Still, that didn’t stop Jackson from eclipsing the 1,000 yard mark on 260 carries last season. He only tallied 5 rushing touchdowns, as well as one receiving for a combined six last year. Not all that bad considering the Rams scored a combined 16 touchdowns as a team last season. In other words, Jackson accounted for 37% of his team’s touchdowns last season. He also averaged 4.4 yards per carry and had 32 runs of 10-plus yards, proving that even at 29 years old, he still has some speed left in him.
The Rams offense can only go up from last year’s production, right? Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer made it very clear in his first meeting with players that he was going to oversee a “physical running” offense to “wear teams out.” Jackson has also publicly said he expects 25-30 touches a game. That might be a bit of a stretch, seeming the Rams did draft RB Isaiah Pead, but SJax should see an extensive workload this season. If QB Sam Bradford can stay healthy, and produce some sort of passing game in St. Louis, the lanes just might open up a tad more for Jackson this season. His current ADP is 30.0, and I’d say that’s a fair draft position for the 9-year veteran.
13.) Fred Jackson – Buffalo Bills
Fred Jackson was on his way to a top-five fantasy season before breaking his right fibula in Week 11. He was a bit of a fantasy surprise last year, as he was not touted as an elite back going into drafts. No one really expected the production Fred put up in the first ten weeks in 2011. He rushed for 100+ yards in seven of those ten games, and totaled 6 touchdowns before breaking his right fibula in Week 11 against the Miami Dolphins. A bad break for those who owned Jackson, who looked to be a big factor come playoff time.
Jackson is now fully healed, and is taking reps with the first team, with C.J. Spiller as the backup. Fred may be 31 years old, which is considered 95 in running back years, but he still holds major fantasy value, and should be considered a top RB2. His current ADP is 35.2, which is a bit surprising seeming he almost eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in only ten games last season. As long as that right fibula holds up, so should your fantasy team.
14.) Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs
Jamaal Charles was emerging as one of the top fantasy backs after his 2010 campaign. He rushed for 1,467 yards on only 230 carries, which had players reaching for him in the first round in 2011 drafts. Then disaster struck. After only 12 carries on the season, Jamaal suffered a torn ACL. He just returned to the field after 11 months, in the Chiefs first preseason game, where he rushed for 23 yards. Jamaal says he feels “fresh,” and wants to prove that he still has the agility and speed despite the dreaded ACL injury.
The Chiefs clearly wanted some insurance in case that ACL doesn’t hold up, as they signed Peyton Hillis in the off-season. While I expect Jamaal to be the primary back, Hillis will certainly be the featured goal-line back, and should be considered a touchdown vulture. If you draft Jamaal, it wouldn’t be that bad of an idea of handcuffing his counter-part. Jamaal’s current ADP is 24.2, which puts him on the edge of 2nd round, early 3rd round. Just remember, he’s coming off an ACL tear, so it might take him a few weeks to catch up to game speed.
15.) Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons
Michael Turner has been a hot topic for fantasy boards this season. The debate has been driven by the fact that despite being a reliable, top ranking fantasy back for the majority of his career, he is no longer considered an RB1. Turner has reeled off 300 carries in three of the past four seasons, and his late-year effectiveness has waned rather dramatically in each of the last two.
Falcons head coach Mike Smith has admitted 300 carries this season for Turner is unrealistic, and something more along the lines of 250 carries would be ideal. A lightened workload might benefit Turner from stumbling during fantasy playoff weeks, like he did last year, but it should also amount to less production. The Falcons offense also has a platoon of weapons, and won’t need Turner for 300 carries like previous seasons. He’s still a reliable back, and only Jacquizz Rodgers stands in his way. Turner is still the primary back and should be considered a solid RB2 option. Just lower the expectations this season, and don’t go earlier than fourth round on him (Current ADP 34.0)
16.) Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers
Frank Gore finally played a full season last year. First time he accomplished that feat since 2006. The reason: coach Jim Harbaugh lightened his workload, giving him only 18.7 touches per game. The second half of the 2011 season saw his touches drop even more, dipping to 15.9. The 49ers are not a high-powered offense, they need a running game to succeed. Gore is not alone by any means though, as the 49ers backfield is quite crowded at the moment. Besides Gore, they brought in Brandon Jacobs, drafted LaMichael James from Oregon, and Kendall Hunter is still around.
Obviously, the idea of keeping Gore fresh with less touches is the game plan, and guys like Jacobs should see goal-line duties, while James and Hunter will give Frank the occasional breather. Gore still scored double-digit fantasy points in 9 of the 16 games last season and should be considered a steady RB2. Just expect a reduced workload for Gore in 2012, and not the 20+ touches a game we are accustomed to seeing from the 9-year veteran. (Current ADP 35.8)
17.) Trent Richardson – Cleveland Browns
Trent Richardson was the first running back taken in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns traded up to the #3 slot to draft him. He was being considered an RB1 before getting his knee scoped. Being on the field come Week 1, is now in doubt for the rookie. Browns have already stated that it’s unlikely Trent will play any preseason games, but he is already rehabbing the knee at Browns headquarters. If the knee holds up, I expect Richardson to get a heavy workload.
Cleveland will be featuring a rookie RB in Trent, and a rookie QB in Brandon Weeden. Throw in the fact that the Browns offensive line is about as bad as the Rams offensive line, and you have a recipe of feeding Richardson the ball until he throws up. Peyton Hillis has moved onto Kansas City, so the backfield is all Richardson’s if he wants it. I however, stray away from drafting backs who’s status is unknown heading into the regular season. No longer can he be drafted as a RB1, and his current ADP of 35.8 shows just how far he has dropped on boards since news of the knee scope. He does have great upside though, and if the knee holds up, a gamble on the rookie just might pay off.
18.) Ahmad Bradshaw – New York Giants
Ahmad Bradshaw could be a top ten back when it’s all said and done. Brandon Jacobs is finally out of his way, and rookie David Wilson is the only other back who might steal some carries from Ahmad. The problem with Bradshaw however, is the history of foot problems. He missed four mid-season games in 2011 with a stress fracture, and scored single-digit fantasy points in 6 of the 12 games he played.
The upside to Bradshaw, was the fact that he was fantasy gold come playoff time. He scored 4 touchdowns in the final three weeks of the season last year, and produced 48 fantasy points. The Giants used their first round selection on back David Wilson to complement Bradshaw, but I suspect Bradshaw will be the featured goal-line back the majority of the time with Jacobs now out of the way. Don’t expect Bradshaw to light up the yardage category, but he should be an easy bet for double-digit touchdowns this season. Consider him a steady RB2 with a slight risk of injury. Might not be a bad idea of handcuffing David Wilson if you can find him in later rounds as insurance. (Current ADP 45.4)
19.) Darren Sproles – New Orleans Saints
Darren Sproles is not your typical running back. Working with a pass-happy offense in New Orleans, Sproles is more of a featured PPR back. His production rests on the Saints game plan, and it may fluctuate from week to week. Still, you can’t ignore the fact that Sproles saw 111 targets last season (most among running backs).
Darren had a rate of 0.98 points per touch last season. That is the fifth-highest rate among RBs since 2000. Sproles won’t see more than 10 carries a game, but his value is still high because of his reception totals, and yards after catch average. If you are in a non-ppr league, lower the expectations on Sproles’ output this season. If you are in a PPR league, expect the little guy to continue to his reign as the top receiving back in the league. Consider him a lower end RB2 with a current ADP of 43.1.
20.) Reggie Bush – Miami Dolphins
Reggie Bush came as a surprise for fantasy players last season. He rushed for 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, and recorded a combined 7 touchdowns on only 216 carries. He also exploded from week 13-16, combing for 519 rushing yards, and 65 combined fantasy points. Reggie boldly claimed in the off-season that his goal is to earn the rushing title this season. A little far-fetched if you ask me, but at least the man has a goal. 216 carries will not get you the rushing title, but word out of Miami’s camp has Bush also lining up out wide this season.
From 2006-07, Bush hauled in 161 receptions for the New Orleans Saints, but since then his reception total has dropped dramatically. The Dolphins still plan to use their other back, Daniel Thomas, who they drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft. I’m not sure we will see a repeat of 1,000+ yards rushing from Reggie this season, but I like the fact that he might turn into the once dominant receiving back he was in New Orleans. Again, in non-ppr formats Reggie’s value should be lowered, but expect him to be a force if you are rewarded for receptions. Reggie should be considered a lower end RB2, high end RB3, with a current ADP 53.3
21.) BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Cincinnati Bengals
Early in the month, I had BGE pegged as a back primed for a breakout season. Some might second-guess me seeming that he’s in a division that features some stout defenses. However, BGE gets a fresh start as the primary starter in Cincinnati, after being a committee running back in New England. The Bengals are a perfect fit for a guy like Green-Ellis in my opinion and here’s why.
Only five teams ran the ball in the red zone more than the Bengals last season. Since head coach Marvin Lewis took over as Bengals coach in 2003, his lead running backs have averaged 1,124 yards, eight touchdowns and 282 carries a season. Among running backs with at least 30 red zone carries last season, only Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and Marshawn Lynch had a higher yards-per-carry average in the red zone than Green-Ellis (2.72).
The Bengals staff has promised to showcase a system of “smash-mouth football,” and that’s why I believe BGE has tons of upside this season. Green-Ellis has only seen 200+ carries in one season, in which he rushed for 1,008 yards in 2010. He had an average of 4.4 yards per carry, and scored 13 touchdowns that season. Throw in the fact that he has NEVER fumbled, and I believe it’s a real possibility BGE can end up in the top 15 category. His current ADP is 58.7, and should be considered a low end RB2, high end RB3 with great upside.
22.) Stevan Ridley – New England Patriots
Stevan Ridley is considered the future running back in New England. Hence the reason the Patriots let BenJarvus Green-Ellis go to the Cincinnati Bengals in the off-season. In limited action last season (87 carries), Ridley rushed for 441 yards, and boasted an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. The only knock on the young kid is the fact that he seemed to have troubled holding onto the ball last season.
The Patriots and head coach Bill Belicheck still have a running back by committee system with Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen on the depth chart, but Ridley should be considered the primary back. With a current ADP of 66.0, consider Stevan a top RB3 option with huge upside. With Green-Ellis gone, look for Ridley to be the beneficiary of his departure.
23.) Willis McGahee - Denver Broncos
I’m not a huge fan of Willis McGahee this season. Last season he finally rushed for 1,000 yards for the first time since 2007, but that was a different offensive system that featured Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow . Now Tebow and Orton are gone, and Peyton Manning takes the helm in Denver. That means an offensive scheme that will most likely be committed to the pass more than the run game.
McGahee is neither a good pass blocker, nor a good receiving back. Denver also has Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman on the depth chart, and many believe Hillman will at some point, take over the starting duties. McGahee scored single-digit fantasy points in 8 games last season, not to mention a -1 point performance against the New York Jets in Week 11. The only upside here is that maybe defenses will give Peyton the respect he deserves, thus opening up the lanes for the soon to be 31 year-old McGahee. (Current ADP 50.7)
24.) Beanie Wells – Arizona Cardinals
Beanie would be much higher on this list if he wasn’t such a liability. Wells eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards, and scored double-digit touchdowns on 245 carries last season. So why the low ranking on the four-year pro from Ohio State? The fact that his right knee has been through hell and back the past two seasons, has many worried. Beanie’s right knee underwent two surgeries, and it drove Wells owners nuts last season. He was virtually “questionable” all season, and was up and down in terms of production.
He had 7 games where he scored six fantasy points or less, but he also had 8 games of 12+ fantasy points. He hasn’t been able to play a full season in three years, but if that knee holds up, Wells can very well be in for a workhorse type season. The Cardinals QB situation is a mess, and the only other back in Arizona, Ryan Williams, is recovering from a torn patellar tendon. Not many other options to go around in the Arizona desert, so Wells might exceed expectations if he stays healthy. And that’s a big IF. Consider him an RB3 with upside, but the risk of injury is always looming. (Current ADP 71.5)
25.) Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If the Buccaneers were to just say goodbye to LeGarrette Blount, I’d say Martin is primed to be a top 15 back this season. However, as of right now, Blount has been taken reps with the first team, and Martin played with the second team in the first preseason game. Head coach Greg Schiano still insists that the plan is to have the rookie from Boise State atop the depth chart come week 1.
Martin helped his cause by scoring a touchdown in the first preseason game, but so did Blount. Martin is however the better blocking back and the better reciever. Blount has also shown ball security issues, and cannot be trusted as a blocking back on passing downs. When it’s all said and done, I believe Martin will be the sole primary back and will be productive. Buccaneers went and got WR Vincent Jackson to help Josh Freeman out, and also signed left guard, Carl Nicks. Look for Martin to burst onto the fantasy scene in a big way. His current ADP is 83.6, and he should be considered a RB3/Flex with great upside.
Be sure to check back tomorrow for my segment on the top ten fantasy football wide receivers for the 2012 season.
You can also check me out tonight on Rant Sports Radio at 8pm cst with hosts Jeric Griffin and Kris Hughes as we discuss the upcoming 2012 fantasy football season: Rant Sports Radio Episode 11
Related Fantasy Football Articles by Michael:
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: Top Ten Quarterback Edition
2012 Fantasy Football Rankings: QB’s – Best of the Rest
Michael J. Igyarto is a featured fantasy football columnist at Rant Sports
Follow Michael on twitter: @windycityiggy
