15 Overrated Players You Should Avoid For Your 2013 Fantasy Football Draft
15 Overrated Fantasy Football Players
The NFL season is right around the corner. That means if you have not done so already, it is time to start preparing for your 2013 Fantasy Football drafts. Obviously, everybody has different opinions and this is just one of thousands and thousands of fantasy football advice articles that are out there. The best advice that I could give you is to do your homework before you draft. Read everything that is out there. There are a ton of awesome fantasy writers that are constantly putting out great work. You want to be as prepared as possible and the more you know, the more prepared that you will be.
In this article, I am going to talk about overrated fantasy football players for the 2013 season. The guys on my list for this article are not necessarily guys that I refuse to draft. I think that is one of the biggest mistakes that some people make. They were burned by a player last season, so they refuse to draft them the next year. Never do that — sometimes there is a part of your draft that it makes sense to take these players. Darren McFadden is a perfect example of this. There are a ton of people who completely refuse to draft McFadden because his injury-filled past has burned them before. The upside is there for McFadden, so he is still a valuable player and you should consider him if he falls in your draft. There is always a point in the draft when a player you do not like falls, and you should seriously consider drafting him because it is great value.
I will probably not end up with these guys on very many of my fantasy teams this year. My thinking with this article was to find guys that I think are being "over-drafted". I found a list of 15 players that for one reason or another are not good value to me. This does not necessarily mean that I will never draft them, but it means that I will not draft them at their current value. Here are 15 overrated fantasy football players that you need to be careful of when drafting your team.
Daniel is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @D_Schmelzer and add him to your network on Google.
Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis Rams
I think Tavon Austin makes the St. Louis Rams much better. He is a dynamic talent that will surely command a lot of attention. I just think that he will have to fight with other options for opportunity. Chris Givens, Jared Cook, Brian Quick and others will all be battling Austin for targets. I think quarterback Sam Bradford will be spreading the ball around a lot and will not produce an elite fantasy receiver. Austin has been going in the sixth to eighth rounds of early drafts that I have done. There are definitely better targets in those rounds than Austin.
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
I am not a big fan of taking rookie running backs early in fantasy football drafts. You just never know what you are going to get out of them. Montee Ball is a very talented runner and backs that play with Peyton Manning usually put up great production. That being said, I am not willing to use a pick in the third to fifth round range on Ball, when it is unknown whether he will even get the starting job.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
I think Tom Brady will still be a productive quarterback this season, I just am not going to spend a high pick on him. Brady has lost a lot of weapons this offseason and I think the New England Patriots will be looking to use the running game a little bit more. I would rather wait on my quarterback than spend a pick in the third to fifth round on Brady.
Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
I think it is safe to say that I will not be owning Arian Foster in any fantasy leagues this season, as I ranked him ninth on my top 50 fantasy player rankings. I just think that Foster is due for a down season. He has had over 1,000 carries in the last three seasons, so I am worried about him being overworked, his YPC average has dipped in the last three years and he is way too touchdown-dependent. I am a strong believer that touchdowns have a bit of randomness to them and I do not target players who are too dependent on them. Foster is one of those guys and I will almost surely not own him in any leagues this season.
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Tony Gonzalez has had a great career. He is no doubt the greatest player to ever play the tight end position. Gonzalez continued his great career last season, but I think he sees a dip in production this year. With Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson, the Atlanta Falcons have great options in the red zone. Gonzalez is also a little touchdown dependent, so I am worried that these other options will hurt his fantasy value. Gonzalez is going in the sixth or seventh round, and I would rather take Jimmy Graham earlier or wait and take a flyer on a tight end late.
Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans
I think Andre Johnson will have a pretty decent season, I just do not agree with where he is being selected. Wide receiver is very deep this season. I like to take an elite guy early and wait until the middle rounds after that. Johnson is no longer elite, but he is being drafted in the late third to early fourth round. That is too rich for my blood when it comes to an aging WR like Johnson.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Colin Kaepernick is a very talented quarterback who has huge fantasy potential. That being said, I do not think that I end up with him on many of my teams this season. His upside is huge, but the position is very deep and I like some of the safer options better. Kaepernick has already lost his best receiver in Michael Crabtree and the San Francisco 49ers are a team that loves to run the ball. Kaepernick will put up some solid production, I would just rather take the safer options.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
Eddie Lacy is coming in to a very good situation as a rookie. The Green Bay Packers are one of the best offenses in the league and have a hole at the RB position. Lacy has some potential, but he is currently being taken anywhere from the fourth to sixth round. For me, that is too early for an unproven rookie running back. I do think that there is some upside with Lacy, I just wish that I did not have to spend such a premium pick on him. The Packers have other solid options in the backfield, so you cannot guarantee that he will get a ton of work.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
I do not mind Marshawn Lynch as a late first-round pick. I just think that he will go earlier and earlier as the season approaches. I think guys like Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Jamaal Charles and Calvin Johnson are much better first-round picks than Lynch. With Percy Harvin in town, I think the Seattle Seahawks are going to get more creative with the running game. Although I am sure he will still be involved, I do not think that Lynch continues to see as many carries as he has the past couple of seasons.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears
With 192 targets, Brandon Marshall had the third-most targets of any wide receiver in the NFL last season. While I am sure that Marshall will still be a key part of the Chicago Bears' offense, I think they will try to spread the ball around a little bit more this season. With new Bears head coach Marc Trestman in charge, I think that Jay Cutler will have to look at other options. Trestman is known to be a guy that likes to throw to his RBs and TEs, so that in itself should take a few looks from Marshall. I still think that Marshall puts up some solid numbers, but I will not be taking him in the early second round like he is being drafted now.
Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
McFadden is a guy that a ton of people avoid during draft day. He is a great talent, so like I said before, you need to take him if he slips too far . That being said, no matter where you draft McFadden, it is always nerve-racking. The guy is an injury waiting to happen. Definitely be careful when drafting McFadden.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
Hakeem Nicks is another guy that never seems to stay healthy. He is a very talented player, so there is always a right time to select him if he falls, but you can almost guarantee that you will be without him for at least a few weeks during the season. Make sure you are getting good value if you draft Nicks.
Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Ray Rice has been a very productive player for a few years. As with Lynch, I would not mind taking him as a late first-round pick. There are just a handful of other guys that I would rather have. Bernard Pierce really started to hack into Rice's carries last season, and that concerns me. I would not call you crazy if you took Rice in the first, but temper expectations and know that there is a fairly significant downside.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
This has nothing to do with the ability of Aaron Rodgers and everything to do with the depth at the quarterback position. Rodgers is currently being taken in the second round, which is much earlier than I am willing to take a QB. With the new influx of talent that the league is seeing, the quarterback position is as deep as ever. You can either take Rodgers in the second round or you can wait until the seventh or eighth round and still end up with someone like Matthew Stafford or Andrew Luck. I do not know about you, but that one is a no-brainer in my eyes.
Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins
Admittedly, I have never been a big Mike Wallace fan when it comes to fantasy football. The guy is a good player who has great talent, but he is so inconsistent. Now, Wallace is a member of the Miami Dolphins. While I do like Ryan Tannehill, there is no comparison between him and Ben Roethlisberger. Wallace is still being drafted in the fourth round, so I think I will pass on an inconsistent WR who downgraded at QB this offseason that early.
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