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Remember in the original Toy Story movie when Andy wouldn’t leave without having his trusted pal Woody tagging along with him? At the time, Woody was the most exciting thing in all of the toybox. However, Andy received a new breed of toy on his birthday. The arrival of the incredible Buzz Lightyear took the world by storm, and suddenly, he was the coolest kid in class. Andy devoted all of his attention to Buzz, while Woody took a backseat.
Ladies and gentlemen, Antonio Gates is now the fantasy Woody.
We all remember how insanely awesome Gates was for fantasy owners several years ago. From 2004 to 2006, Gates was repeatedly the number one scoring fantasy tight end. And in from 2007 to 2010, he wasn’t too bad either, failing to finish outside of the top-five among the position. The San Diego Chargers offense was buzzing and all was right in the world.
Boy, does that seem like a long time ago or what?
Fast forward to 2013 and the Chargers are looking like one of the worst teams in all of football. However, does that mean this is the demise of Gates’ relevancy in fantasy football? I’m not giving up on the veteran just yet. Sure, his catches and receiving yards have declined in each of the last two seasons, and he finished outside of the top-10 in fantasy points among tight ends last year. But considering the fact that the tight end position is almost always a crapshoot, consider not throwing in the towel on Gates’ fantasy appeal. The 33-year old is in tremendous shape, having lost some weight and is now gluten-free. He seems to be out on a mission to prove that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and in all honesty, that intrigues me a bit.
The Chargers Offense
Yuck… The San Diego offense was already unattractive enough, but then promising wide receiver Danario Alexander tore his ACL and will miss the entire season. Not to mention the offensive line is easily one of the worst in football, there isn’t much to like about this unit. Quarterback Philip Rivers isn’t the same signal caller we were accustomed to seeing in the 2010 season. His game is no longer deep shots downfield, but rather dink and dunks with a very ugly throwing motion. However, the lack of offensive weapons around him should boosts Gates’ targets, as if they needed an uptick in the first place. Gates has been one of the most targeted tight ends over the past five or six seasons, but perhaps the added looks will allow him to get back into that top tier among tight ends this year. And if this year’s preseason is any indication, Gates will be heavily utilized in 2013. During the preseason, the Chargers have targeted their tight ends 31 percent of the time, which ranked first among all teams. That stat, of course, is brought to you by the slaves to stats over at Pro Football Focus. And it seems every time Rivers has been under center during dress rehearsals, he is always looking Gates’ way first. Don’t expect that to change over the course of the 2013 season. Oh yeah, remember when I said the Chargers will be awful this year? That won’t hurt Gates’ value either, as San Diego will likely have to sling the ball all over the place late in games. I always say it, but garbage time equals gold in fantasy. And while new head coach Mike McCoy historically likes to target the running backs in the passing game (18.4 % in 2011, 14.4 % in 2012), it’s that intermediate offense that will help Gates catch more than the pedestrian 49 balls he grabbed last year. Expect Gates to be busy in 2013, just as long as he can stay healthy.
Gates A Sleeper?
It’s hard to consider a guy with the pedigree of Gates as a fantasy sleeper, but that is exactly what he is. Remember, a sleeper isn’t always a guy who people have hardly heard of and emerges out of nowhere. It’s anyone who you think will outperform their ADP, and considering Gates is being drafted towards the middle of the eighth round, I definitely consider him a sleeper. That’s good value, if you ask me. You aren’t drafting Gates as a top-three tight end anymore, so by grabbing him anywhere between rounds eight and 10, you are reducing whatever risk there is with him. Whether it be injury concerns, age, poor offense, whatever. The risk is reduced because of the position he is being drafted in. If you feel more comfortable pairing him with a younger tight end with higher upside, by all means, go for it. In fact, I encourage it. I just feel that too many people are giving up on Gates, and instead, are investing in unproven guys such as Kyle Rudolph or Jordan Cameron. Gates will likely get more volume than both of those guys, and you can get either later, or around the same time.
Don’t forget, guys. Woody did return to his glory days at the end of the movie.
Can Gates do the same?
Adam Pfeifer is a featured fantasy sports columnist for Rant Sports.
You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.
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