Austin Collie: 2013 Fantasy Football Outlook

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The New England Patriots have signed wide receiver Austin Collie. With pretty much every receiving option for Tom Brady banged up in one form or another, what can fantasy football owners expect from the former Indianapolis Colts receiver?

The most important thing to realize is that Collie is injury prone. He has missed 22 games over the last three years, and makes Danny Amendola seem like an iron man by comparison. Since his selection in the fourth round of the 2009 NFL draft, he has only twice played the full season. Concussions have been the biggest health concern, but there was also a ruptured patellar tendon last season.

When healthy, however, Collie does offer some upside. As a rookie he finished with 676 passing yards and seven touchdowns. In 2010 he caught 58 passes for 649 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 72.1 yards per game. His numbers declined in 2011 down to 54 receptions, 514 yards and only one score, but that probably had more to do with the lack of Peyton Manning than Collie himself.

Now playing alongside Brady, could we expect similar production from Collie’s first two seasons? I would doubt that he comes into week five and makes a huge impact. Based on looking at players thrust into action with new teams so far this season, Collie’s outlook doesn’t look great. Trent Richardson had a touchdown in his first game with the Colts, but struggled with pass protection and played limited snaps. Willis McGahee only had eight rushing attempts for nine yards in his debut with the Cleveland Browns. Running back is one of the easier positions to learn, so it stands to reason that Collie could struggle with routes and the Patriots scheme in the short term.

Over the longer term, I am reserved on Collie’s impact. Granted his talent is enough that if he stays healthy he could have some high end WR3 type numbers. I’m sure there will be a couple games where he posts 60-70 yards and a score. Fantasy owners need to remember that Amendola appears on track to play soon, Kenbrell Thompkins is nursing a sore shoulder, but has earned the trust of Brady and Rob Gronkowski will be returning soon. Julian Edelman should also stay ahead of Collie on the depth chart.

That makes Collie fifth on the pecking order, something that could lead to a low target count. That could be troubling for fantasy owners. While they still lead their division, this is not the same Patriots team that ranks among the lead leaders in offense. Currently the Patriots are 19^th in total offense and 17^th in passing offense. They will trend up when their players get healthy, but with so many mouths for Brady to feed, expectations for Collie should be tempered. I would only recommend adding Collie to the roster if your league is really deep.

As always, I welcome your comments. If you think I’m wrong, I’m willing to listen. Just back it up with some facts and solid evidence. Thanks for reading and good luck this season.

Dustin Manko is an author at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter @DustinManko, ”Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google