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Fantasy Baseball managers are always looking to find a hot starter that seems to come from out of nowhere in the month of April. Baseball naturally is a game of hot streaks, cold slumps and everything in between. Consistency reigns as the supreme credential.
Thus far in 2014 season, both the NL and AL have a name that is coveted, but to many owners, probably have the “sell high” tags around their necks. Let’s try and separate reality from obscurity.
OF Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies: Blackmon (.410-19-5-15-6) is on an absolute tear in the month of April. He is the Mike Trout (.315-17-5-14-2) that just about no one drafted in the preseason. When in all actuality, he’s playing better than Trout right now. The two took similar paths to arrive at their MLB destinations. Trout was drafted 25th overall in the 2009 amateur draft as a 17-year old, and would make his MLB debut at the age of 19 in 2011. Blackmon was selected 72nd overall in the 2008 amateur draft as a 22-year old. He made his MLB debut in 2011 at 24-years of age. The discrepancy in debut ages between the two is because Blackmon accepted a baseball scholarship to Georgia Tech, and Trout would eventually back out of an opportunity to attend East Carolina University on scholarship.
Now I am not saying Blackmon is the next Mike Trout or that he will outplay Trout in 2014. But his numbers are worth closer inspection. Blackmon has exhibited steady improvement in every one of his MLB baseball seasons since 2011. His ABs have gradually increased, and so have his batting averages (2011/.255, ’12/.283, ’13/.309). As a leadoff man, Blackmon’s numbers are also impressive. For his career hitting out of the one spot, he has a slash line of .310/.341/.518. and .357/.372./.571 as the first hitter in a ball game. Comparatively, Trout’s career slash line as the first hitter in a game is .280/.344/.476. Blackmon also has a very strong career BABIP of .341, and a career OBP of .341.
OF Chris Colabello, Minnesota Twins: Colabello had a decent spring, hitting .333 in 18 ABs. For the most part, he made the Twins Opening Day roster because the organization does not want to rush along their prized prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano (injured). Colabello is essentially a career Minor Leaguer. He toiled from 2005-2011 in the independent Can-Am League for the Worcester Tornadoes. At 28, the Twins signed him and he slashed .284/.358/.478 in 2012 during a full season in Double-A, followed by a full 2013 season in Triple-A at .352/.427/.639. These are impressive numbers, and good on the Twins’ scouts for finding Colabello, but don’t expect the production to continue steadily into September.
Your modern era prototypical late bloomer is a Jose Bautista, breaking out at 29-years old in 2010 to the tune of a .260-109-54-124-9 line. But Bautista had already logged 1,750 MLB ABs dating back to 2004 in his pro career. He was familiar with pro pitching, and there was a scouting report on him. Major League pitching has only witnessed Colabello take 78 ABs so far in 2014. Now that he is starting to catch scouts’ and coaches’ attentions with his strong .346-10-3-26-0 line, adjustments will be made and a scouting report should hinder his future progress. It’s worth noting that Colabello’s line over 160 ABs in 2013 was more congruent with a career Minor Leaguer’s, at .194-14-7-17-0. It will be interesting to see where his numbers lie come this time in May.
Bottom Line: Expect Blackmon’s success to continue, to a lesser degree once he comes back down to earth, but for him to still be a Top 100 player in Fantasy Baseball after the 2014 season has concluded. He is slugging .692 right now for the Rockies in the leadoff spot, while Colabello is being relied upon as a clean-up hitter in the Twins’ lineup, yet is slugging over 100 points less (.577) than Blackmon. In all likelihood, by the time the summer months of baseball roll around, Colabello’s regression will be putting pressure on Twins brass to call upon Buxton and give a jolt to the offense. Trout is himself an anomaly. A few players in each generation are that good when they are that young. Blackmon (27) is finding his stride at right around the average age for a position player, and he is still on the right side of 30, something Colabello does not have working in his favor.
Jordan Wevers is a Writer for Seattle Mariners on www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @JordanWevers, “Like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.
