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Jon Lester has simply been fantastic to start 2014. We’re almost a month and a half into the season now, and the Boston Red Sox‘ ace is currently ranked 10th among starting pitchers on ESPN’s player rater with four wins, 66 strikeouts, a 2.75 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 55.2 innings. Lester is currently on pace for 264 strikeouts which would absolutely shatter his career high of 225 (he had 225 in both 2009 and 2010), and if he keeps up this rate of production he’s got a very legitimate shot at finishing the season as one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball.
With Lester I think we have to ask two questions: First, can he sustain this overall level of production? Second, is his current strikeout rate sustainable?
Is the overall production sustainable?
Lester is currently on pace to finish 2014 with both the lowest ERA and WHIP of his entire career, and so far luck has had virtually nothing to do with it; in fact, his .317 BABIP, 2.12 FIP and 2.69 xFIP suggest that up to this point Lester has actually been a little bit unlucky.
Two things that can really kill a pitcher are walks and home runs. Lester’s walk rate has decreased each of the last four seasons, and this year it’s at a career low 2.10 BB/9. It’s no surprise that this also coincides with an overall gradual increase in his first pitch strike percentage, which is currently at a career-high 61.1 percent. Lester’s always been good at keeping the ball in the park; his 0.86 career HR/9 is a great rate and his 0.49 rate in 2014 is the 16th lowest in MLB.
Lester has steadily improved as a pitcher over the last few seasons, and this could very well end up being the first season of his career with a sub-3.00 ERA and a WHIP under 1.20.
Is his current strikeout rate sustainable?
Lester has been the total package so far this season, but what has stood out more than anything else is the rate with which he’s striking people out. In 2010, Lester had a 9.74 K/9; from 2011-2013 that rate took a steep decline, and in 2012 and 2013 he had K/9s of 7.28 and 7.47 respectively. In 2014, Lester’s strikeout rate has shot all the way back up to 10.67 and he currently owns the sixth best rate in all of baseball. What has changed and can he keep it up?
What’s changed has been his pitch selection. Take a look at the table below, which shows Lester’s pitch selection in 2013, 2014 and his overall career.
70.8 percent of Lester’s pitches this season have been either fastballs or cutters (compared to 52.3 percent in 2013), and the increase has paid dividends. 47 of Lester’s 66 strikeouts have come on either fastballs or cutters and batters are hitting just .199 against those two pitches. And according to PitchFx, Lester’s cutter is currently the second most valuable in baseball. Lester has an elite cutter, and as long as he keeps feeding batters a heavy dose of cutters he should continue to rack up the strikeouts.
Lester looks like he’s on his way to having a career year in 2014. I have him in my most important league, and I’m not even thinking about trying to sell high on him. If you own Lester, sit back, roll him out there every start and enjoy the results. If there is an owner in your league trying to sell high on Lester, float him/her an offer; buying high isn’t always a bad thing.
Billy Moy is a Fantasy Sports writer at www.RantSports.com. You can follow him on Twitter @william_moy6, “like” him on Facebook or add him to your network on Google.
