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In an ESPN interview, LeSean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles claimed that he — not Adrian Peterson — is the best running back in the NFL. Certainly he isn’t basing this on such a trivial matter as fantasy football. McCoy was quoted:
I’ve been All-Pro, first-team, twice. I never leave the field. I block. I catch. I never leave the field. I don’t have anybody do my job; I do it myself.
He’s more concerned about his production for his team, not yours, and he makes a valid case for himself. But let’s say that he is discussing his stance as the top RB in your fantasy football draft. Is he?
Last season, McCoy was a first rate running back for fantasy GMs, ranking second to Jamaal Charles who beat him out by 40 points. That’s a wide margin, as McCoy only beat the third-ranked RB Matt Forte‘s production by 16 points. But where does that leave us?
Well, over the last 10 seasons only Shaun Alexander in 2004-05 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006-07 have been able to be the top fantasy back in back-to-back seasons. Odds are Charles will be unable to stay upon his throne this season, so take him out of the equation.
The last running back to leap frog from second to first the proceeding season was Priest Holmes in 2002. That’s 12 seasons of a running back not being able to improve to be the top guy, but that’s just a history lesson. Maybe McCoy can break the drought.
Earlier this month, I had discussed how well Darren Sproles and McCoy will complement each other. I still believe that they will both be effective fantasy players, but McCoy will see diminished production from Sproles’ entrance.
McCoy was a workhorse for Chip Kelly last season, seeing a career-high 360 touches. Before last season, McCoy rarely saw over 300 touches. So was last season a fluke, and he won’t see the same opportunity as he had last season? With Sproles in the equation, I guarantee McCoy will be seeing less targets and carries than he did last season.
On average, Sproles sees around 120 touches a season (most of them coming from receptions). Last season, between McCoy and his second-string running back, there was a total of 450 touches. So it’s certainly possible that McCoy could still see the ball over 300 times this season, but I expect Kelly to slow it down just a little bit and bring the duo’s total to around 400 carries and receptions between them.
This means McCoy’s opportunity is brought down to around 270 receptions and carries. Unless he can average over six yards a carry and punch it in the end zone more than ten times, he won’t be the top back this season.
On average, the top fantasy producing running back has 377 carries, over 100 more than my projected opportunities.
But don’t get me wrong; McCoy has always produced well for GMs. I fully expect him to be a Top 10 back this season. But No. 1? No.
