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Fantasy owners that used a high draft pick on Houston Texans running back Arian Foster last year were left to find a replacement for him, as he missed essentially 10 games with a back injury that eventually required surgery. But he is now fully healthy, participated fully in Houston’s voluntary minicamp and looks ready to re-emerge as one of the best running backs in the league this year.
Positives
Foster’s 2013 injury could be looked at as a blessing, after he led the league in carries in 2012 (351) and averaged a career-low 4.1 yards per carry. With Ben Tate’s departure in free agency and the signing of Andre Brown to replace him, Foster is still unquestionably Houston’s No. 1 running back.
The Texans look likely to lean heavily on the running game with Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tom Savage as their top two quarterbacks, and Foster’s role as a pass receiver should expand after trending downward in recent years.
Foster was a prolific touchdown scorer during his peak from 2010-2012, with 47 trips to the end zone (41 rushing, six receiving). He should get all the goal line opportunities he can handle in 2014, provided the Texans’ offense ventures into the red zone often enough to make that potential volume stand out.
Negatives
Fosters’ age (28 in August) and workload from 2010-2012 (372 touches per season) are potential concerns. Last year’s back issue is noteworthy, even after surgery and his recent declaration of 100 percent health, and a history of hamstring issues can’t be ignored as Foster ages.
The potential for Houston’s offense to struggle this season would drag everyone’s production down, and Foster as the likely centerpiece would not be immune.
Final Verdict
Foster is a strong rebound candidate for this year, though expecting him to produce at the level he did prior to 2013 is unrealistic. The likelihood of a big workload takes away some down side in having Foster as a RB1, even with some lingering durability concerns. I would not be totally comfortable having Foster as my top running back, and those that end up with him in a draft or auction would be wise to add another back soon after as the pool of starting-caliber options starts to dry up.
Bye Week: Week 10
Projected Round: Late Second Round or Early Third Round (12-team leagues)
Auction Value: $45 (via ESPN.com)
Brad Berreman is a Senior Writer at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter or connect on Google +.
