Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
If you were like me last year, you were sitting on top of your league thanks to your savvy selection of New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski. Not that no one knew that he would be great, but that many GMs were weary of his status of actually playing.
After three arm surgeries, the timetable for Gronk would fluctuate from missing only preseason, to missing 10 weeks. It seemed reports were changing by the minute, and it led to a matter of trust for GMs. What value does he add for your team if he were to truly miss 10 games? If he were indeed to miss that amount, he would really only help you if your team was in the hunt for the playoffs.
Picking Gronk wasn’t as much a matter of trust in him, but as much as the trust in your draft skills. You had to trust that your team was solid enough to win without him. Then you knew when he came back, you had trade opportunities or depth at your disposal, along with his great production. Was the pick worth it? Indeed.
In only seven games, Gronk was able to churn out a top 15 performance among tight ends. That’s a borderline starter in most any league. But what most of the other 14 did in 16, he did in seven. Had he played all 16 games, he would have only ranked behind Jimmy Graham. And there’s no indication that he’ll be any different this year.
No one’s saying to not draft Gronk, but there are some that are feeling he’s starting to decline. That’s true… if you compare any season to his 2011 campaign — that’s not really fair. But he has seen a decline in targets during the last two seasons, and his catch rate has also fallen from 68.8 percent to 59.1 percent. Those stats really are not doing him any justice at the moment. But hear me out.
The stat that can explain this and further the argument that he’ll be a top TE this season is his deep ball percentage has increased. Last season, of Gronk’s 66 targets, 33 percent were deep ball attempts (over 15 yards). This could be a possible determinant of his decline catch rate, as well as Brady only ranking 21st in deep ball attempts. But it’s the deep ball that is helping Gronkowski pick up lost ground quickly.
Last season, his yards per reception were a career-high of 15.2 yards. And guess what? Each of the last four seasons, Brady has been increasing his deep ball attempts. If the trend continues (as they typically do), Brady will throw 22 percent of his 700 passes over 15 yards.
If Gronk can even return to his rookie season of 42 receptions, he’d see about 13 receptions of over 15 yards. Let’s estimate that his average deep ball was about 25 yards. This would give him 32 points right off the bat. Add in another 38 points for his other yardage.
Had Gronkowski played all 16 games last season, he would have seen about nine TDs, but his career average was 12. Account for 10 touchdowns, and you now have a grand total of 130 points.
Assuming there is similar TE production in the league this season from last year, that would be the seventh ranked TE campaign. But this is only assuming he sees the same amount of receptions he had in his rookie season.
Last year, if Gronk were to have played all season, he would have seen 89 receptions. But because of it being on the basis of averages, let’s say he only had 70 receptions. Based on this, he would be the second ranked TE hovering around 175 points.
This year we don’t really have to consider drafting Gronk as we had to last year. He’ll come at a higher cost this year, but he’ll certainly pay dividends.
Sean Cordy is a featured fantasy sports columnist for Rant Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @RagingTaxiDrver and you can add him to your network on Google
