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2014 Fantasy Football Profile: RB DeMarco Murray

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By @SicEm18

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

If you watch a Dallas Cowboys game when said team is losing, you’ll likely hear a commentator talk about how successful they are when they run the ball. That’s been the mantra of every analyst and commentator over the past three seasons under various play-callers. But during their string of three straight 8-8 seasons, Dallas has actually regressed in running the ball. So apparently they do not TiVo the broadcasts and listen to the announcers.

Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have ran the ball less in terms of ratio of rushing to passing each season. In DeMarco Murray‘s rookie season, they ran the ball 42 percent of the time. In his second year, 40 percent. During last season, the percentage dropped to 36 percent. You’d think that would make Murray’s production worse, right?

Murray actually has improved as a fantasy option each season since entering the league, topping off last season as the seventh ranked RB and a trip to the Pro Bowl. Due to injuries each season (playing 13 games his first season and 10 the following season), it’s a little difficult to compare seasons. But based on averages, he’s actually seen more carries than expected.

He regressed by one carry a game last season, compared to his 2012 season with 16 carries a game (but due to only playing 10 games, it’s not certain there’s much of a difference). But even though the Cowboys have eased on the run attack, they give a majority of carries to Murray as opposed to a running committee with Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle. So if the trend were to continue withe new play-caller Scott Linehan, he could be in for an even better season than last year.

During Murray’s 13 games in 2013, he saw 74 percent of the carries as opposed to 59 percent in 2012 and 50 percent in his rookie season. Using that trend, he’d see an estimated 85 percent of carries this year. But that’s simply not going to happen; even a workhorse like Adrian Peterson sees 70 percent of their team’s carries tops.

So let’s assume Murray plateaus around that mark of 70 percent. That would mean – if healthy and a new play-calling system that listens to outside advice – Murray could see a career high of around 250 carries. And keeping an average of five yards per carry, he would pickup 1,250 yards as well as around 10 touchdowns to top it off.

But we’re not done yet. He’s also been seeing more receptions each season along with seeing more carries. Of course, that’s a product of seeing more overall attempts from Tony Romo, but Romo and Murray have been clicking. I’d expect another 50 reception season from Murray for about 350 yards.

With 1,600 yards from scrimmage, almost a dozen TDs and a low fumble rate, Murray would be a top 10 fantasy option this year with approximately 220 fantasy points — about 100 points above replacement players.

Mark Murray down as a first-round prospect on your draft boards.

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