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Even on the heels of a nice 2012 season (79 receptions for 1,198 yards and 10 touchdowns), Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones fit the profile of a breakout third-year wide receiver in fantasy football circles last year. He didn’t disappoint, with 41 receptions for 580 yards (three 100-yard games) and two touchdowns through the season’s first five games, but a broken right foot in that Week 5 game against the New York Jets sidelined him for the rest of the season and left owners that used a high draft pick on him wondering what might have been.
Positives
The Falcons are holding Jones out of OTAs, but there does not seem to be any concern about his availability for training camp and the start of the season.
It’s dangerous to project numbers under the assumption of playing all 16 games, but if he had stayed healthy Jones was on pace for 131 receptions for 1,856 yards and six touchdowns last season. Jones was also targeted a bunch (12 times per game), and would have led the league with 192 targets if he’d played all 16 games.
Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan finished second in the league with 651 pass attempts last season, and with No.1 running back Steven Jackson in decline the team should be throwing the ball plenty again this year.
Negatives
Jones also suffered a broken right foot in 2011 as he went through the pre-draft process, so having the same injury twice so early in his career is a bit of a concern.
Tight end Tony Gonzalez is retired, but wide receivers Roddy White and Harry Douglas will both be a prominent part of Atlanta’s passing game. Part of the reason Jones’ target volume was so high prior to his foot injury was the fact White was hampered by injuries himself, so things should even out some this year with both guys at full strength.
Final Verdict
Jones is a legit high-end WR1 for this year, but I think he may be a bit undervalued coming off his injury. Looking at ESPN.com’s first fantasy rankings of the year, I think a case could be made for Jones to be the top-ranked wide receiver if he had made it through 2013 healthy. That is of course where some risk lies in drafting Jones this year, but as long as he avoids setbacks in his recovery over the rest of the summer his upside potential will be hard to ignore early on draft day.
Bye Week: Week 9
Projected Round: Second Round (12-Team Leagues)
Auction Value: $36 (ESPN.com)
Brad Berreman is a Senior Writer at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter.
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2014 Fantasy Football Profile: WR Roddy White
