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Here’s a quick catch up for those of you that missed the first two segments in this series. In Part 1, I mentioned how to evaluate fantasy football players and rank them based on their physical condition and team situation. In Part 2, I discussed the economics of draft value and determining which positions are scarce in your league and the opportunity cost of a player.
Now I’ll go more in-depth into statistical analysis of which specific positions and players to target based on two systems. The first is Points Above Replacement, and the second is Points Above Next Best Position. Keep in mind that while these measures help you determine tiers of players and when to target a different position, scarcity and your draft’s progression still come into play.
Points Above Replacement
Points above replacement dictates evaluating how much better a player is than the next ranked player of the same position (Note that I don’t take credit for inventing this approach, though everyone uses this method in varying ways).
In essence, is there a big point difference between your No. 4 RB and your No. 5 RB? What about between your No. 20 RB and your No. 21 RB? The question we want to answer here is when a player is more or less going to perform similarly to the next-best option, thus freeing up your current pick for a more valuable player.
This method allows you to separate groups of players into tiers. For example, here are the top-20 RBs based on points scored in 2013 in one of my PPR leagues.
As you can see, there was a clear drop-off from the No. 3 RB to the No. 4 RB. There was another big drop-off in production between the No. 5 RB and No. 6 RB, and another from the No. 11 RB to the No. 12 RB.
Of course, last year’s metrics are merely a guide, which is why I won’t be drafting Knowshon Moreno in the first round. I’m basing this year’s draft targets based on my projected total points scored for them in 2014. Here is my ranking of the top 10 RBs in 2014 separated into tiers.
Based on this, if I have a top-four overall pick in the draft, I will take one of the elite RBs. I believe that LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte will all perform similarly to last season. I also think that Adrian Peterson will be more involved in the passing game and reclaim that top spot.
However, at pick number five, I would most likely make a choice between an elite WR or Jimmy Graham, as I’ve determined that the next four RBs in my rankings will perform at a marginally lower level (due to lack of receptions, which is huge for RBs in PPR formats).
In snake drafts, separating players into tiers allows you to better plan out your draft strategy. If you are toward the beginning or end of the order and have multiple picks coming up within a few spots of one another, then you can forgo one player for someone else.
In auction drafts, tiers are more of a guideline as you have more freedom to draft players as you view their value rather than based on your draft position. Basically, you can choose to pay a few extra dollars for players you really want even within a tier.
So when do you decide to stop drafting a tier at a certain position for another? For example, how did I decide that I would rather have Graham or a WR after Charles at fifth overall?
Points Above Next Best Position
Points above other positions dictates evaluating how much better a player is than a similarly ranked player of a different position (i.e. will drafting my RB20 score me more points than my WR20?). Many sites and experts lump this into points above replacement, but I see these as two separate issues based on league settings.
To figure this out, I looked at the scoring leaders from that same league from last year. Here was the point total breakdown for the top 20 WRs and the top 20 RBs.
As you can see, 13 WRs scored more than 250 points while only five RBs managed the same feat. That’s why I’m looking at Graham or a WR if I have the fifth overall pick or later in the first round.
The scoring differential helps me determine which position outscores another at a certain tier. Generally speaking in PPR, I would rather try to grab two stud WRs if I have a later first-round pick to pair with an early second-rounder. But again, this changes drastically depending on your league (i.e. if you start three WRs or play standard or half-point PPR).
In essence, putting players into tiers can give you more versatility in the draft. For example, if I have picks 1.09 and 2.02, then I might pass up a guy like Arian Foster for Brandon Marshall. Even though I think that Foster is the last RB of his tier, I believe that a tandem of Marshall and someone like Dez Bryant would outscore a duo of Foster and someone like Doug Martin.
Know when there’s likely to be a significant decrease in scoring output at a certain position after a certain tier. At that point, you can change who or what position you’re targeting based on who you value similarly.
Conclusion
Once you have your rankings and projections set, one of the most important per-draft preparations is setting tiers for your player rankings. Understand how many points Player A is likely to score over his replacement, and know when Player A is worth passing up for Player B at a different position.
Once you’ve evaluated players, projected their coming year performance, and separated them into tiers, you will have a solid but fluid strategy to follow entering your draft. I hope this has helped prep you for your draft and good luck in 2014.
Meng Song is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @ms0ng, “like” him on Facebook or add him to your Google+ network.
