Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
We all hate getting burned.
Of course, we are speaking figuratively, but I’m convinced that everyone would also hate getting burnt from a stove, oven, fire, whatever.
Ouch.
Fantasy owners know the feeling all too well, getting burned. I mean, just look at what happened with the first round running backs last year like Trent Richardson, Ray Rice and Doug Martin, for example. However, they weren’t the only rushers to hurt fantasy owners on draft day. But do not put a player on your “never again” list after just one season. That’s just childish.
Don’t worry, Stevan Ridley. I got this.
After a strong 2012 campaign, Ridley fell flat in 2013. He struggled to hang onto the football, and in a Bill Belichick offense, that’s suicide. Ridley fumbled four times last year, making for nine total over the last two seasons. Because of it, he didn’t see nearly as many snaps, going from 34.4 per game in 2012 to just 23.8 per contest a season ago. However, with all of the negatives being thrown Ridley’s way, he will make as a serious draft day bargain this year.
First of all, LeGarrette Blount is gone. Yes, I know, Blount isn’t exactly the type of player that could drastically impact someone’s fantasy value. But it’s relevant. Blount contributed to about 20 snaps per game last year, while Shane Vereen saw the field about 40 times per game. And even though he only carried the ball 153 times last year, Blount scored seven times, serving as the Patriots’ goal line back. But, again, he’s gone, and Ridley is easily the best short-yardage back on this roster, scoring 19 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. That bodes well for New England’s offense, one that continues to translate to more of a run-heavy one. Over the last two seasons, the Patriots have ranked 9th and 2nd in rushing attempts per game, especially in the red zone. Last year, New England ranked second in rushing touchdown percentage (47.2), and while it may have been due to the lack of elite end zone threat, Rob Gronkowski, it’s still worth mentioning that this team wants to run the football as much as they want to pass. And luckily, they are still reaching the goal line, averaging 4.1 red zone attempts per game last year, the 2nd-most in football.
While Tom Brady gets most of the attention in this offense, the Patriots do love to pound the rock in when close. Last season, New England scored 12 rushing touchdowns from inside the opponent’s five yard line, and, according to ESPN, no team in football has scored more touchdowns from that area since 2010 (56). Vereen, though immensely talented, isn’t the goal line back that Ridley is, and as long as he can hang onto the football, the job should be his to lose throughout the season.
There’s great value in that.
At the moment, you can grab Ridley as the number 29 running back off the board, a middle 6th-round draft pick. Remember, the guy was a top-10 fantasy back just a year ago, and is still young and in a very potent offense.
Adam Pfeifer is a lead fantasy sports writer for Rant Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.
