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Everyone seems to be very high on Indianapolis Colts WR T.Y. Hilton this year. Hilton is certainly a talented player, but his hype is driving down the price of fellow Colts WR Reggie Wayne. Here’s why Wayne is worth a roster spot on your fantasy football team in 2014.
Hilton certainly lit it up towards the end of last season, but let’s examine the stats in games where both receivers played in 2013. Prior to Wayne’s ACL injury, he averaged 5.4 receptions on 8.3 targets per game for 72 yards receiving. In those same seven weeks, Hilton averaged only 3.9 receptions on 7.7 targets per game for 59 yards receiving.
While Hilton certainly proved his worth and solidified his rapport with Andrew Luck after Wayne’s injury in Week 7, Wayne is still one of Luck’s most reliable receivers. All reports out of training camp seem to indicate that Wayne is recovering well from his ACL surgery, and he is expected to be ready to go in Week 1.
Hilton showed some amazing flashes in 2013, but he also had some terrible outings. In the nine games Hilton played last year without Wayne in the lineup, he still only managed to top 100 yards receiving in three games. On the other hand, Wayne is a model of consistency, having topped 1,000 yards receiving in eight of his nine seasons prior to last year.
It’s certainly possible that Hilton tops his 2013 performance, but it seems unlikely, especially with Hakeem Nicks now in Indianapolis as well. Personally, I’ll take the aging veteran who’s shown he can do it time and again over the third-year WR who’s only had one 1,000-yard season. Assuming health, Wayne’s value is equivalent to that of Hilton’s, and he’s a far cheaper option when draft time comes.
Hilton’s current ADP is in the sixth round of mock drafts whereas you can grab Wayne in the ninth round. I’ve previous explained why I won’t be drafting Hilton this season, and those same arguments make Wayne a very enticing late-round pick. For the value, I would gladly grab an aging Wayne three rounds later in 2014.
Meng Song is a writer for www.RantSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @ms0ng, “like” him on Facebook or add him to your Google+ network.
