Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Regression seems to be the consensus theme surrounding the Carolina Panthers for 2014.
Last year, the Panthers defense emerged, their quarterback (per usual) was great and Carolina finished with a 12-4 record, owning the NFC South. However, they lost to the 49ers in the first round of the playoffs, but this was a very, very good football team last season. But Carolina lost a ton of pieces during the offseason, and didn’t really upgrade anywhere. As a result, many people believe the Panthers are going to see their win total significantly drop, while their fantasy players won’t be as valuable.
What say you? Or, you know, me.
Depth Chart
Quarterback
I love it.
People are so, so worried about Cam Newton, an elite talent who has been a top-five fantasy passer in every year he’s been in the league. He lost all of his receivers, sure, but were those receivers really that good? I mean, Steve Smith was aging and hardly productive last year, Brandon LaFell really was sporadic, at best, and Ted Ginn is a one-trick pony. If there is any concern with Cam, I believe it’ll be the downgrade at the offensive line, but still, this is Cam Newton we’re talking about.
Keep falling.
At the moment, Newton is coming off the board as the 10th quarterback, going at the back end of the 7th round. I don’t care who he was catching passes, I’ll take that value all day long. Last year, Smith only caught 62 percent of passes thrown his way, good for 52nd among qualified wideouts, according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, last year at FSU, Jameis Winston completed almost 60 percent of his passes to rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin that traveled 15 yards or more, via Matthew Berry. I think Benjamin may actually be an upgrade over a 35-year old Smith, who is averaging just five touchdowns over his career. Benjamin, meanwhile, caught 19 touchdowns during his two seasons at FSU, and provides Cam with his first legitimate red zone option of his career.
Sure, on paper, Carolina’s receiving corp looks terrible, one of the worst in football. But last year, it was also one of the worst in football, and yet, there was Cam, finishing as a top-five fantasy option at the quarterback position. The Panthers receiving corp really has been below average over the last three years, too.
And, of course, Cam is the most dangerous runner at the quarterback position, too.
Over the last three seasons, according to Christopher Harris, 39.3 percent of Newton’s fantasy points have come from his legs. The guy has already scored 28 scores on the ground in his career, and when the Panthers get up close, it’s Cam calling his own number quite a bit. Last year, Newton saw 20 red zone rushes and 13 from inside the 10, compared to 30 and 20 in 2012. Those numbers were better than a handful of starting running backs in the league, so there is great value to be had there.
Stop the madness. Cam is still a QB1.
Running Back
Yuck.
If you want to make it in the fantasy industry, just correctly peg the year that one of the Carolina running backs establishes themselves. It’s so ugly, but if you are going to target any of them (what’s wrong with you?), I guess it should be DeAngelo Williams, who eclipsed 200 carries and 1,000 scrimmage yards for the first time since 2009. Teammate Jonathan Stewart is already nursing a bad hamstring, and could miss anywhere between two to four weeks. The Panthers could run the ball a lot this year, as the Panthers were 7th in the league in rushing attempts per game last year (29.9) and now their offense is potentially worse. Still, it’ll be difficult without the likes of Jordan Gross, PFF’s number-three rated offensive tackle from last year, who has retired.
Also, there is little touchdown upside with Williams because when they get up close, it’s either Cam or Mike Tolbert carrying the football. Last year, the two combined for 16 of Carolina’s 21 carries from inside the five-yard line. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tolbert was the most fantasy relevant player in this backfield at season’s end.
Wide Receiver
We already touched on Benjamin, but this rookie is going to be Carolina’s number one receiver. He’s been developing a strong rapport with Newton during camp, and is reportedly serving as his safety blanket. That’s the key– for the two to continue to work together and develop some chemistry. Benjamin is an extremely raw talent, however, possessing a blazing 4.61 40-time, the 8th-slowest among wide receivers at the combine. His value will come with potential touchdowns, as his 6’5″, 241-pound frame is very appealing for end zone looks. But, again, this team loves to pound the rock when up close, and rookie wide receivers hardly ever pan out, so it’s difficult to believe Benjamin will be very fantasy relevant in year one.
Other than that, don’t touch anyone. Jericho Cotchery isn’t catching 10 touchdowns again, Jason Avant doesn’t know how to run routes and, unless you are in a point per length of hair league, Tiquan Underwood is no good.
Tight End
Drafting Greg Olsen on your fantasy team is arguably the least-sexy pick ever.
Olsen has been remarkably consistent over the last two seasons, averaging 71 receptions, 106.5 targets and 5.5 touchdowns during that span. Here’s the thing with Olsen. He will never, ever win you a fantasy week. He just doesn’t have that kind of upside. However, he certainly won’t lose you a week, either. Last year, Olsen was a top-12 fantasy tight end 50 percent of the time, one of only five tight ends to have a consistency rating higher than 50 percent. He should easily lead this team in targets, as well as receptions.
Adam Pfeifer is a lead fantasy sports writer for Rant Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.
