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And then there was one …
It’s been a great time analyzing every single team in the NFL. Looking at the fantasy good, the bad and the ugly. And believe me, there was plenty of ugly to be found. So, we will finish off with one of the most fantasy friendly offenses in the league today. In 2013, the Chicago Bears were the number two scoring offense in football, averaging over 27 points per game. The weapons were outstanding, but arguably the biggest piece of the puzzle was on the sidelines.
Marc Trestman, the quarterback whisperer.
Depth Chart
Quarterback
You’ve heard the stat so many times.
If you combine the numbers of both Jay Cutler and Josh McCown from a season ago, you have the number three ranked passer in all of fantasy football. It may be thrown around too much, but it’s a perfect example of just how fantasy friendly this offense is under Trestman.
With Trestman, Cutler posted the highest completion percentage (63.1%) since 2007. He also sported a Bad Decision Rate of just 1.3 percent, which is relevant because prior to last year, he had never posted a BDR rate of less than three percent in his career. His QBR was also the highest since 2009, while his passer rating of 89.2 was the best of his career. The Trestman offense even made McCown, a high school teacher before last season, very fantasy relevant. He had four top-12 fantasy finishes during his time as the starter in Chicago.
Then there’s the weapons.
Last year, both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery ranked inside the top-10 in fantasy points among wideouts. History suggests that quarterbacks with two top-10 wide receivers at their disposal tend to do pretty darn well in fantasy football. J.J. Zachariason of numberFire points out that, since 2000, there have been 12 instances where a team has had two top-10 fantasy options at the receiver position. Zachariason’s research suggests that of those 12 occurrences, just twice has the signal caller not finished as a top-10 fantasy option. Marshall and Jeffery are both elite talents at the position, and when you add a capable tight end and an elite pass-catching back, there’s no excuse for Cutler.
And, let’s not forget that, to start the year, Cutler was very good, too.
Through the first six weeks of the 2013 campaign, Cutler averaged a very strong 18 fantasy points per contest, posting three top-12 fantasy finishes. So he was off to a good start, ranking as a QB1 50 percent of the time. If you are looking to wait and grab Cutler, there is legitimate top-five upside at the position, but it may be wise to pair him with another guy. After all, he has missed 12 games over the last two seasons.
Running Back
There may not be a better fit to Trestman’s short passing offense than Matt Forte.
Forte hauled in an awesome 74 balls for 600 yards and three scores, en route to a top-three fantasy season among running backs. And after just five rushing scores in 2012, Forte made strides in the red zone, finding the end zone nine times on the ground. Forte is an absolute stud, and even with two elite wideouts on the outside, I’d expect him to continue to be a focal point of the receiving game.
After all, Trestman is used to utilizing running backs in the passing game.
If there were only one knock on Forte, it would probably be the fact that last year, he played 887 offensive snaps, easily the most among all running backs. And according to ESPN, each of the last three rushers to lead runners in offensive snaps failed to finish as a top-10 fantasy back. But still, Forte is a surefire top-five fantasy draft pick.
Wide Receiver
I’m not sure how or why, but Brandon Marshall is actually kind of undervalued in fantasy football. For some reason, he is going outside of the top-five among wideouts, despite absolutely eating during his first two seasons in Chicago. Since joining the Bears. Marshall ranks first in targets (355), second in PPR points (626) and third in standard scoring (408). Marshall is going to continue to be force-fed the ball, as Cutler loves his long-time teammate. And in PPR leagues, he’s as good as it gets, posting five 100-catch campaigns for his career. Using RotoViz Game Splits App, let’s look at how much better Marshall was with Cutler under center.
Almost 11 targets per game alongside Cutler, folks. That’s some pretty sweet volume. I understand people are infatuated with the talent of Julio Jones and A.J. Green, but I think Marshall deserves the spot over them. He’s been the most consistent fantasy wideout (alongside Calvin) since 2010, finishing as a top-12 wide receiver 68 percent of the time. According to Tristan Cockroft of ESPN, that’s the 7th-best rating during that span.
Meanwhile, Alshon exploded during his sophomore campaign. Great speed and elite ball skills, Jeffery hauled in 89 balls for 1,421 yards and seven scores, finishing as the number nine wideout in fantasy. He was a downfield monster, ranking second in the NFL in vertical yards (933) and first in stretch vertical yards (590). He’s a top-12 guy, for sure, but it is worth noting that he wasn’t as dominant with Cutler under center. Again, hat tip to the geniuses at RotoViz.
Tight End
The Black Unicorn, Martellus Bennett could be an absolute monster in fantasy, but there are just so many mouths to feed in the Bears offense. Last year, he was only targeted about four or five times per game, and only saw six targets from inside the 10-yard line, while being targeted just 16 times in the red zone. He is going to have his weeks, for sure, and probably won’t ever kill you in a given week, but he likely won’t win you one either.
Adam Pfeifer is a lead fantasy sports columnist for Rant Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @aPfeiferRS.
