The San Francisco 49ers have had their ups and downs this season, but Colin Kaepernick has remained a fairly consistent fantasy contributor throughout the year. Kaepernick has thrown for between 200-250 yards in every game to go with either one or two touchdowns. His only real struggle came against the Chicago Bears, when he threw three interceptions. Kaepernick has been less consistent on the ground, rushing for over 50 yards in three games and under 20 yards in two, and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet this season.
The St. Louis Rams are quite the contradiction defensively, ranking 3rd in the NFL in total yards allowed but 30th in points allowed. Their ineffective offense deserves a lot of that blame, and Kaepernick could be set up with some short fields and good scoring opportunities. Since he became the Niners’ starting quarterback, Kaepernick has averaged 192 passing yards and 45 rushing yards per game against the Rams. He has only thrown for three touchdowns and run for one score in those four games, though he has never thrown an interception against St. Louis.
The Rams lead the NFL in pass defense but rank just 21st in rush defense, and the 49ers are most likely going to come out and run the ball early and often. The Niners’ commitment to the ground game limits Kaepernick’s upside somewhat, though this is a weekly issue for his fantasy owners. More concerning is the unknown status of Vernon Davis, who missed last week’s game and is Kaepernick’s top target. Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree have been solid, but Kaepernick’s fantasy owners would certainly feel better with Davis in the lineup.
On a positive note, the Rams have somehow only mustered one sack this season, so Kaepernick should have plenty of time to throw. Robert Quinn remains one of the best pass rushers in football and is due for a breakout game, but is seems unlikely that he would have that game against Joe Staley.
Although the 49ers are clearly a superior team to the Rams, it would be wise to temper your expectations for Kaepernick, especially if Davis is out. He should have a solid game and is a definite starter, but don’t expect him to have a monster performance. Expect Kaepernick to continue his string of solid but not spectacular fantasy performances and be an asset to your team.
Week 6 Projection: 19/27 passing, 205 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs/6 carries, 44 yards, 0 TDs
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