Jay Cutler Fantasy Football Week 6 Projection

By Sean Cordy @RagingTaxiDrver on October 9, 2014

With so many productive fantasy football quarterbacks in the league, it’s easy to dismiss QBs like the Chicago Bears‘ Jay Cutler. People were heralding his wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey, but not Cutler himself before the season started. But isn’t that somewhat counterintuitive? But Cutler and company have flipped the table five games into the season.

Cutler has found great success this season, ranking as the fourth best fantasy quarterback, whereas his top two WRs are outside the top 40 of their positional rankings. That means he’s finding success spreading the ball around the field, but that’s also what concerns me considering his matchup this week against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons have given up the ninth fewest points to QBs this season. They even held the likes of Drew Brees and Andy Dalton to sub 20-point performances, something no one was expecting considering their successes. Cutler has yet to have a game with fewer than two touchdowns; so it’s a case of an unstoppable force facing an immovable object. When they match up, we can’t say for certain what will happen. But dig a little deeper and I think it’s Cutler that will give way.

Remember how I pointed out Marshall and Jeffrey as disappointing targets this season? That’s not what concerns me. It’s that he’s finding success with his tight end Martellus Bennett. What’s wrong with that? The Falcons are giving up the fewest points to tight ends this season — just over four points per game. The most they’ve allowed was eight points to Jimmy Graham in Week 1, but that’s a whole other beast. Since then, they’ve allowed an average of two points to opposing tight ends — hardly flattering.

Their focus on Bennett may open up space for the receivers, but the Falcons are also proving effective against them too. They’re in the top half of the league in fewest points allowed to receivers. Where their defense struggles is in the run game. They’re giving up the most points to opposing backs this season, so expect the Bears to look at their run game to exploit the Falcons’ defense. Better teams have tried through the air and have resorted to running it; I’m not expecting a different result here.

That being said, I think Cutler can at least find the end zone one time, while breaking 250 yards — a total of 14 points in standard leagues. If you have someone else on your roster behind Cutler, consider putting him in — you may not be able to run away with the treasure this week with him. But this should just be a temporary occurrence for Cutler.