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2015 Fantasy Baseball Profile: OF Jason Heyward

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By @bradberreman24

Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals, Fantasy Baseball

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing offensive season in 2014 (.271/.351/.384, 11 home runs, 58 RBI and 20 stolen bases), the Atlanta Braves traded outfielder Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals in November. He had what looked like a breakout season  in 2012, when he hit 27 home runs and drove in 82 runs, but Heyward has just 25 home runs and 96 RBI over the last two seasons.

Will a change of scenery help Heyward rebound in 2015, and make him a difference maker for fantasy baseball owners?

The change in home parks to Bush Stadium from Turner Field is not dramatic for Heyward, as the ball park projections provided by The Sporting News has Busch Stadium as the 21st-most hitter friendly park and Turner Field is 24th on the list. If his home run total is going to rebound, Heyward will not benefit from playing roughly half his games in a hitter’s haven.

Heyward’s contact rate continued to rise in 2014, to just over 82 percent, while his strikeout rate continued to fall in concert (15.1 percent; 16.6 percent in 2013 and 23.3 percent  in 2012). He probably will never be a .300 hitter, but Heyward will not drag down his fantasy value by flirting with the Mendoza Line either.

The recent power outage is of course the most troubling thing when looking at Heyward, particularly because he was fully healthy last season (573 at-bats) after an injury-marred 2013. But a closer look shows a steep drop in his home run/fly ball rate last year (6.5 percent), and improvement back toward 2013′s mark (13 percent) can absolutely be expected this year.

Heyward had 382 at-bats in the leadoff spot for the Braves in 2014, but Cardinals’ manager Mike Matheny and general manager John Mozeliak have suggested he will hit anywhere from No. 2 to No. 5 in St. Louis’ lineup. Hitting in the middle of what should be a very good lineup is great news for Heyward’s fantasy potential, and he had 22 home runs, 59 RBI and 15 stolen bases out of the third and sixth spots in Atlanta’s lineup in 2012 (427 combined at-bats).

Fantasy owners may be avoiding Heyward on draft day all together after the last two seasons, and that is reflected by a current average draft position that has him as the 80th overall pick right now (via Fantasy Pros.com).

2014 feels like Heyward’s floor, and he still just 25 years old with his best years likely ahead of him. With serious upside on a new team, and the potential for him to be a notable contributor in four categories, I’d be comfortable having Heyward as my No. 2 fantasy outfielder.

Jason Heyward 2015 Fantasy Projection: .275 batting average, 19 home runs, 80 RBI, 20 stolen bases and 85 runs scored

Brad Berreman is a Columnist/Senior Writer at Rant Sports.com. Connect with him on Twitter. 

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