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2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper: OF Matt Joyce

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By @bradberreman24

Matt Joyce, Los Angeles Angels, Fantasy Baseball

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Josh Hamilton was already expected to be out until May after undergoing right shoulder surgery earlier this month, and now his future is cloudy with recent news of a relapse in his recovery from addiction to drugs and alcohol. Hamilton may get back on track and return at some point this season, after serving a suspension most likely, but the Los Angeles Angels have to plan for the coming season with no expectations attached to Hamilton’s availability.

The Angels acquired outfielder Matt Joyce from the Tampa Bay Rays in mid-December, and he now looks likely to be the team’s regular left fielder while Hamilton is out of the picture. The prospect of more playing time is usually good news, but is Joyce now a name for fantasy baseball owners to keep in mind late in drafts?

Joyce had a down year in 2014, hitting .254 with nine home runs and 52 RBI over 418 at-bats with the Rays. But he hit at least 17 home runs in each of the three seasons prior to that, with career-highs in home runs (19), RBI (75) and stolen bases (13) in 2011. His struggles against left-handers (.147 batting average last season, .189 for his career) are not going away, but Angels’ hitting coach Don Baylor has suggested that Joyce will get work against southpaws during the spring in an effort to keep him from looking over his shoulder for a looming pinch hitter.

Joyce strikes out a bunch (22.5 percent in 2014) and his ground ball and fly ball rates are trending the wrong way over the last three years for someone who would be classified as a power hitter. A continued decline in his average fly ball distance last year (264 feet, 265 feet in 2013) yielded a substantial drop in Joyce’s home run/fly ball rate (7.6 in 2014, 12.7 in 2013), which is a concern as he enters his age-31 season. That said, if Joyce’s average fly ball distance flat lines or improves a little this year, his home run/fly ball rate should improve and bring his home run total up with it.

Angel Stadium is only slightly more hitter-friendly that Tropicana Field, according to The Sporting News’ 2015 Ballpark Index, so the switch in home parks is not likely to impact Joyce much one way or the other.

Simply by default, Joyce may top 500 at-bats for the first time in his career this year. Based on his career home run rate, with a round tripper every 24.8 at-bats to this point, that makes 20 home runs a real possibility. Late in an AL-only or deep mixed league draft, Joyce should be on the radar as a cheap power source.

* Statistics via Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

Brad Berreman is a Columnist/Senior Writer at Rant Sports.com. Follow him on Twitter.

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